Oscars 2011 Predictions!

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The nominations will be announced tomorrow morning, and I feel the need to make predictions. I will also do live nominations tomorrow morning, bright and early. It's a tradition I haven't missed in a number of years. It also helps to scratch my itchy wings. My special guest, Grizzly, helpfully contributes (in purple?).

PICTURE
The Social Network
The King Speech
Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
The kids are alright
True grit
127 Hours
The Town

Alt. Winter's Bone

• 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone
Alternate: The Town
Dark Horse: Shutter Island
This category is ridiculously long, but so are winter days, and there's no way for me to avoid that short of being transported to the equator. I left out Winter's Bone because it's carried by a woman, and we know how sexist AMPAS is, if they have to choose (yes, they're choosing between The Town and Winter's Bone). A much stronger list this year compared to last, when that TV feel-good movie starring Sandra Bullock made the cut, no doubt causing her subsequent split with the wonderful Jesse James.

DIRECTOR
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Darren Aronofsky
Danny Boyle
Tom Hooper

Alt. David O. Russell
• Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
• Joel & Ethan Coen - True Grit
• Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
• David Fincher - The Social Network
• Christopher Nolan - Inception
Alternate: David O. Russell - The Fighter
Dark Horse: Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Tom Hooper's only there because for some reason, people in the Guilds really like The King's Speech. The movie basically leaves your head as soon as it enters it. It won the PGA though. Since when did Americans care about some stuttering British King? Coen brothers were ignored by the DGA?

ACTOR
Colin Firth
Jesse Eisenberg
James Franco
Jeff Bridges
Robert Duvall

Alt. Javier Bardem
• Jeff Bridges - True Grit
• Robert Duvall - Get Low
• Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
• Colin Firth - The King's Speech
• James Franco - 127 Hours
Alternate: Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
Dark Horse: Javier Bardem - Biutiful
The category is quite strong this year. If it was up to populist-me, I would replace James Franco with Javier Bardem. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Ryan Gosling got a nod for Blue Valentine, but I don't think that's his best work so, no dice.

ACTRESS
Natalie Portman
Annette Benning
Jennifer Lawrence
Nicole Kidman
Michelle Williams

Alt. Hilary Swank
• Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
• Natalie Portman - Black Swan
• Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Alternate: Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right
Dark Horse: Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
The only reason I stuck Hilary Swank in the Alt. prediction was because she was nominated by the SAG. Why did they do that? I have no idea. She probably threatened to bite them. Hailee for both actress and supporting actress? Someone's in looove.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale
Geoffrey Rush
Mark Ruffalo
John Hawkes
Andrew Garfield

Alt. Jeremy Renner
• Christian Bale - The Fighter
• Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
• John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
• Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Alternate: Jeremy Renner - The Town
Dark Horse Matt Damon - True Grit
This field is weak, because Andrew Garfield is in it. Nothing against Andrew, but man was he ever boring in the movie.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo
Mila Kunis
Amy Adams
Hailee Steinfeld
Helena Bonham Carter

Alt. Jacki Weaver
• Amy Adams - The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
• Mila Kunis - Black Swan
• Melissa Leo - The Fighter
• Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Alternate: Lesley Manville - Another Year
Dark Horse: Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
I want Jacki Weaver to be nominated, because rumours have it that her character is the Aussie version of Melissa Leo's bad mother in the Fighter. What would even be better, but is never going to happen, is that Barbara Hershey got the nod also. Then we can have a trifecta of mommy dearest. But then, the category would suck. Let's kick Helena Bonham Carter out and replace her with Lesley Manville. That may make it all better.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The kids are alright
The King's speech

Alt. Another year
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
Alternate: Another Year
Dark Horse: Blue Valentine
I would be surprised if anything else sneaks in.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Social Network
True Grit
127 Hours
Winter's bone
Toy Story 3

Alt. The Ghost Writer
• 127 Hours
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone
Alternate: The Town
Dark Horse: The Ghost Writer
Toy Story 3 should be there because it's the last of Toy Story and it makes older people sad and stuff. Go Ghost Writer? The Town is also a viable alternate, but picking two alternates is cheating, cheating, I tell you.

EDITING
The Social Network
Inception
The King's speech
Black Swan
127 hours

Alt. The fighter
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
Alternate: True Grit
Dark Horse: 127 Hours
The Fighter and 127 Hours are neck in neck for the fifth spot. I went with 127 Hours because it's more showy. Also, James Franco is hosting the Oscars.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
True Grit
The Social Network
Inception
Black Swan
The King's speech

Alt. 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• Inception
• The King's Speech
• Shutter Island
• True Grit
Alternate: The Social Network
Dark Horse: 127 Hours
I'm not sure why The King's Speech is there. Probably because of Geoffrey Rush's apartment in the film. It had really pretty wallpapers.

ART DIRECTION
Inception
Black Swan
The King's speech
True Grit
Alice in wonderland

Alt. Tron: Legacy
• Alice in Wonderland
• Inception
• The King's Speech
• Shutter Island
• True Grit
Alternate: Black Swan
Dark Horse: Tron Legacy
I'm not sure what the Art Direction is in True Grit, but I didn't want to list Tron: Legacy way too many times. It's depressing. What's with the Shutter Island love?

COSTUMES
Alice in wonderland
Black Swan
The King's speech
True Grit
Burlesque

Alt. Made in Dagenham
• Alice in Wonderland
• Black Swan
• The King's Speech
• The Tempest
• True Grit
Alternate: Burlesque
Dark Horse: Tron Legacy
They need to make more period pictures because "Oscar nominated Burlesque" is just wrong. What is The Tempest?

SOUND MIXING
Inception
The Social Network
Black Swan
True Grit
127 Hours

Alt. Tron: Legacy
• Black Swan
• Inception
• Toy Story 3
• Tron Legacy
• True Grit
Alternate: The Social Network
Dark Horse: Iron Man 2
I'm confident about my nominations. Don't disappoint me, Oscars.

SOUND EDITING
Inception
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
The Social Network

Alt. Tron: Legacy
• Inception
• Iron Man 2
• Toy Story 3
• Tron Legacy
• True Grit
Alternate: Black Swan
Dark Horse: 127 Hours
I'm banking on The Social Network steamroll. And in case you're wondering why there are two sound categories, I only have this to say: :/

FOREIGN FILM FEATURE
Biutiful
Incendies
Life, above all
In a better world
Outside the law

Alt. Dogtooth
• Biutiful (Mexico)
• In a Better World (Denmark)
• Incendies (Canada)
• Life, Above All (South Africa)
• Outside the Law (Algeria)
Alternate: Even the Rain (Spain)
Dark Horse: Dogtooth (Greece)
Other than Biutiful, which I've seen and am quite certain of its Oscar baitibility, I don't know why the other ones are there. Probably because I have to pick 4 other names amongst the short listed. Griz probably did the same. Go internet groupthink!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Waiting for Superman
Inside job
The Tillman story
Exit through the gift shop
Waste land

Alt. Client 9: The rise and fall of Eliot Spitzer
• Exit Through the Gift Shop
• Inside Job
• Restrepo
• Waiting for Superman
• Waste Land
Alternate: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Dark Horse: Gasland
I'm guessing Gift Shop based on the enthusiastic praise for it from those who have seen it. Eh, Griz?

ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 3
How to train your dragon
The illusionist

Alt. Tangled
• How To Train Your Dragon
• The Illusionist
• Toy Story 3
Alternate: Tangled
Dark Horse: Despicable Me
It's the only category I'm nervous about, because it's the only category with a picture I care enough about that not many people have seen. It's not How to train your dragon (I keep wanting to write "how to drain your dragon" and I'm not sure that it would've been a children's film). Maybe if everyone agreed on this, it will come true. Psychic energy!

VISUAL EFFECTS
Inception
Alice in wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Tron: Legacy
Iron man 2

Alt. Scott Pilgrim vs the world
• Alice in Wonderland
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
• Inception
• Iron Man 2
• Tron Legacy
Alternate: Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Dark Horse: Hereafter
This year's effects kinda sucked, except for Inception. Also, Tron: Legacy is a likely nomination, which may potentially give it an edge over pictures like The Ghost Writer. I'm not hating on a film I haven't seen. I'm just basing my opinion on other people's opinion. I'm a people's person.

MAKE UP
Alice in wonderland
Barney's Version
The wolfman

Alt. The Fighter
• Alice in Wonderland
• Barney's Version
• The Wolfman
Alternate: The Way Back
Dark Horse: Jonah Hex
We have to have aging make up! I don't even remember The Wolfman. I'm putting it down because presumably they needed to put a lot of make up on a wolf to turn it into a man for the movie.

SCORE
Inception
The Social Network
The King's speech
127 Hours
How to train your dragon

Alt. Tron: Legacy
• Alice in Wonderland
• How To Train Your Dragon
• Inception
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
Alternate: Never Let Me Go
Dark Horse: The Ghost Writer
All prognosticators base their predictions of this category on the famous names involved. There's so much recycling of names here that it makes for the greenest category ever. That was funny, right?

SONG
You haven't seen the last of me, Burlesque
Coming home, Country strong
We belong together, Toy Story 3
Shine, Waiting for Superman
I see the light, Tangled

Alt. If I rise, 127 Hours
• "If I Rise" - 127 Hours
• "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
• "I See The Light" - Tangled
• "We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
• "Shine" - Waiting for Superman
Alternate: "Me and Tennessee" - Country Strong
Dark Horse: "Coming Home" - Country Strong
Did you hear about the US government poisoning the birds?



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14 Response to Oscars 2011 Predictions!

Grizzly
January 25, 2011 at 9:39 AM

Drumroll!

According to my calculations, I got 86 of 105 correct, while you got 85 of 105 correct! A narrow victory, although if we include alternates (and ignore my dark horses since you didn't want to play that game), you got 95 correct and I only had 92.

January 25, 2011 at 10:28 AM

Uh, no, you got 85 correct, just like me! And the alternates count differs for me too. See the nomination post!

Grizzly
January 25, 2011 at 10:36 AM

I DEMAND A RECOUNT!

I just rechecked, and I came up with 86 again?

January 25, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Okay, here are what you missed:

DIRECTOR (1st)
• Christopher Nolan - Inception
Alternate: David O. Russell - The Fighter

ACTOR (2nd)
• Robert Duvall - Get Low
Dark Horse: Javier Bardem - Biutiful

SUPPORTING ACTOR (3rd)
• Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Alternate: Jeremy Renner - The Town

SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4th)
• Mila Kunis - Black Swan
Dark Horse: Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5th)
• Black Swan
Alternate: Another Year

EDITING (6th)
• Inception
Dark Horse: 127 Hours

CINEMATOGRAPHY (7th)
• Shutter Island
Alternate: The Social Network

ART DIRECTION (8th)
• Shutter Island
Alternate: Black Swan

COSTUMES (9th)
• Black Swan
I Am Love

SOUND MIXING (10th, 11th, 12th)
• Black Swan
• Toy Story 3
• Tron Legacy
Alternate: The Social Network

SOUND EDITING (13th, 14th)
• Iron Man 2
• Tron Legacy
Alternate: Black Swan

FOREIGN FILM FEATURE (15th)
• Life, Above All (South Africa)
Dark Horse: Dogtooth (Greece)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (16th)
• Waiting for Superman
Dark Horse: Gasland

VISUAL EFFECTS (17th)
• Tron Legacy
Dark Horse: Hereafter

MAKE UP (18th)
• Alice in Wonderland
Alternate: The Way Back

SCORE (19th)
• Alice in Wonderland
127 Hours

SONG (20th)
• "Shine" - Waiting for Superman
Dark Horse: "Coming Home" - Country Strong

Did I get that right?

Grizzly
January 25, 2011 at 10:58 AM

Tron Legacy got a nomination for Sound Editing, that's the one.

January 25, 2011 at 11:00 AM

Eek. That means I got less - 84!

Grizzly
January 25, 2011 at 11:04 AM

I still counted you having gotten 85 though.. Hmm, I will have another look.

SUCH COMPLICATED MATTERS THESE! :D

Grizzly
January 25, 2011 at 11:06 AM

No, wait. Saw where I miscounted too, I thought you'd gotten 4+1 for Director, but you had Danny Boyle in there too, so you only had 3+1.

I blame your inability to put things in ALPHABETICAL ORDER! Grrr, lol.

January 25, 2011 at 11:07 AM

YES. ESPECIALLY SO EARLY IN THE MORNING.

I just counted the red nominations I missed?

January 25, 2011 at 11:09 AM

I put them in somewhat-good-in-ampas-book order. Makes it easier for later winner prediction. :D

Grizzly
January 25, 2011 at 11:14 AM

I have no idea what that means.. You put them in order of most favourite to win? like 1 2 3 4 5? That makes sense, but it was a pain in the ass to do the counting and comparing!

ANYWAY. I've got you at 84 plus a whopping 10 alternates (Picture, Director, Actor, S. Actor, S. Actress, O. Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Foreign Language Film and O. Song).

I got myself at 86 plus 6 alternates (excluding dark horses since you didn't want to play that game).

January 25, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Yes! And you're right!

I should not be operating any machine in the morning!

Grizzly
January 25, 2011 at 2:15 PM

I am very thankful in that regard, it's 2:30 in the afternoon here when they announce the nominees. But on the other end, the Oscar show is on tv here from 2 am to 6 am. Although I find it far easier to just stay up all night than getting up early. Getting up early is the worst.

January 27, 2011 at 12:56 AM

In a way, it's kinda special that I would make an exception for it? That it feels kinda like Christmas morning?

 

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