Oscars 2024: Year of upsets, maybe? And winners!

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I'm banking on some upsets this year, given how wide open some of the categories are. That'd be good! A little excitement for a dying show that outside of people like me and Griz (in purple), noone cares because WHO GOES TO THE MOVIES?? Winners in red.

BEST PICTURE
Oppenheimer
Alt: The Zone of Interest
 
Oppenheimer
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall 
 
Years from now, without the context of running with Barbie to make him popular that one summer, noone's gonna understand how Oppenheimer went on a tear and won everything.
 
DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Alt: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest 
 
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things 
 
ACTRESS 
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon 
Alt: Emma Stone - Poor Things 
 
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon 
Alt: Emma Stone - Poor Things
 
Is it an upset if we're all predicting it? 
 
ACTOR 
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
 
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers 
 
Having seen The Holdovers, I can't believe it is a favourite for an upset in this category. Or any category outside of supporting actress. I guess I still don't like Alexander Payne's work?
 
SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers 
Alt: American Ferrera - Barbie
 
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers 
Alt: Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple 
 
SUPPORTING ACTOR 
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
 
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Ryan Gosling - Barbie
 
Charles Melton wuz ROBBED.
 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 
Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: The Holdovers
 
The Holdovers 
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall
 
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
Poor Things
Alt: The Zone of Interest
 
American Fiction 
Alt: Oppenheimer 

It's not going to be Oppenheimer - not its strength. I was going to say Zone of Interest, because it looks serious, but this is Poor Things' best chance outside of Actress and Production. This is a very stacked category though, and anyone could walk away with it, including Barbie (to make up for the lack of a director nom for Greta?).
 
EDITING 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall 
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall
 
CINEMATOGRAPHY 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Killers of The Flower Moon
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Poor Things
 
PRODUCTION DESIGN 
Poor Things 
Alt: Barbie 
 
Poor Things 
Alt: Barbie
 
COSTUME DESIGN 
Barbie 
Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon
 
Barbie 
Alt: Poor Things
 
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 
Maestro 
Alt: Poor Things 
 
Maestro 
Alt: Poor Things
 
It's the darn nose.
 
SOUND 
The Zone of Interest
Alt: Oppenheimer
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: The Zone of Interest
 
VISUAL EFFECTS 
The Creator 
Alt: Godzilla Minus One 
 
The Creator 
Alt: Godzilla Minus One 

Gozilla probably had better effects, but The Creator is more of an Oscars-flavour movie. You never know though, it could upset!
 
ORIGINAL SCORE 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon 
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon
 
ORIGINAL SONG 
"What Was I Made For?" - Barbie 
Alt: "I'm Just Ken" - Barbie 
 
"What Was I Made For?" - Barbie 
Alt: "I'm Just Ken" - Barbie
 
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM 
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 
Alt: Society of the Snow (Spain) 
 
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 
Alt: Society of the Snow (Spain)
 
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM 
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 
Alt: The Boy and the Heron 
 
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 
Alt: The Boy and the Heron
 
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 
20 Days in Mariupol 
Alt: To Kill A Tiger
 
20 Days in Mariupol 
Alt: Bobi Wine: The People's President


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Oscars Nominations 2024: Barbieheimer Once More

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Here comes the annual Oscars post to sustain this blog... for unknown reasons.

My friend Griz's predix are in purple, as usual.

 

PICTURE

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Alt. The Color Purple

 

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

 

That's a bingo!

 

DIRECTOR

Greta Gerwig – Barbie x Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall

Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne – The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

Alt. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest *

 

Greta Gerwig - Barbie  
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon

Alt: Alexander Payne - The Holdovers

 

Wow, Greta missed. How? Maybe Barbie does not have as much support from the Academy as we thought, judging on the other missed categories for Barbie. Well, except the weird America Ferrera nom.

And Payne missed too. The DGA led me down!

 

ACTRESS

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

Margot Robbie – Barbie x !!!

Emma Stone – Poor things

Alt. Annette Benning - NYAD*

 

Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Margot Robbie - Barbie
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Alt:
Greta Lee - Past Lives

 

The two driving forces (Margo and Greta) behind the biggest movie of the year missed their 'surefire' nominations. Wow. What does this all mean???

 

ACTOR

Bradley Cooper – Maestro

Colman Domingo - Rustin

Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Alt. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
 

Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin

Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon

 

The two horses race is on!

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz – Ferrari x I blame the SAG

Jodie Foster – NYAD

Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Alt. Sandra Huller - The Zone of Interest*

Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz - Ferrari 
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Alt: Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

SUPPORTING ACTOR
 
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

Willem Dafoe – Poor things x Mark Ruffalo

Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Alt. Charles Melton – May December

I actually saw May December, and Charles was great in it! <-- Shame he didn't get nominated. It's a better performance than Gosling in Barbie (the only other performance I have seen in this category). OH WELL.

 

Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer 

Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Charles Melton - May December 

Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

Alt: Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Maestro

Alt. Saltburn

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers

Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Alt: Saltburn

 

The internet was correct for this one.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
 

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon x

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Barbie

Alt. The Zone of Interest*

 

American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Alt: Barbie

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse

Alt. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle: Mutant Mayhem

 

I can't believe I got all of these.

 
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

20 Days in Mariupol x Io Capitano

Fallen Leaves x Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Zone of Interest

Alt. The Teacher's Lounge

 

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All at once now ... the Oscars goes to ...

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Pre-show: I just found out the Oscars is this weekend ... in about 2 hours or so. The neglect is real. I'm one of the plebs who occasionally watch something in theatre now, so it's hard to know what to predict/root for, which is so sad. In any case, I suppose I still care enough to make this list, so here goes nothing. (And my friend Griz's, again, in purple). Winners in red.

Brief comment: I'm not up to date on the complexity of politics in these awards, so these are based on pretty old standbys for wins. "Everything" is a lot of fun, and its competitors (for best picture) are just not strong enough to make it a horse race. It does not mean it is the best, remember.  Michelle was ok (she was the least impressive of the cast somehow?), but I have no bone to pick with her winning because I haven't even seen the other nominated actresses' performance (where's Florence Pugh, I ask you?)! I have to remind myself that the Academy awards the goodest (based on good enough quality, acting populist appeal, zeitgeist of the time, momentum/buzz), but not the best (even though there are happy occasions where these two qualities may overlap, like for Moonlight!), so this is pure fun to guess what's in favour these days. Occasionally, a pick would be puzzling or downright bad, because the time is right for that pick but not necessarily for its quality (e.g. Angela Bassett for Wakanda). And I am ok with that too, because this ain't no Cannes! 


Post show tally: I correctly predicted 17/20, Griz did 15/20 (+3 for alternates). Go us!


PICTURE


Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. All quiet on the Western front*
 
Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. All quiet on the Western front

*I don't think this is even my real pick, because the Best Picture win is a lock for Everywhere.

 

DIRECTOR

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert  - Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. Todd Field - Tár
 
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert  - Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. Ruben Östlund - Triangle of Sadness 

 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All quiet on the Western front - Germany
Alt. Argentina, 1985

All quiet on the Western front - Germany
Alt. The quiet girl - Ireland

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Alt. Turning red

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Alt. Turning red

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Navalny
Alt. All the beauty and the bloodshed
 
All the beauty and the bloodshed
Alt. Navalny

 

ACTOR

Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Alt. Austin Butler - Elvis
 
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Alt. Austin Butler - Elvis

 

ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh - Everything everywhere all at once*
Alt. Cate Blanchett - Tár
 
Cate Blanchett - Tár 
Alt: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

 

*The SAG win changed my mind.

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jamie Lee Curtis -  Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda forever*
 
Jamie Lee Curtis -  Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda forever

 

*It would be a shame for her to win for the worse role, but she is a great actress otherwise.

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan - Everything everywhere all at once*
Alt. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan - Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

 

*No need to predict this one - like best picture, it is the lockiest pick that is ever locked.

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. Triangle of sadness
 
Everything everywhere all at once
Alt. Triangle of sadness

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Women talking 
Alt. All quiet on the Western front
 
All quiet on the Western front 
Alt. Women talking 

 

FILM EDITING

Everything everywhere all at once 
Alt. Top gun: Maverick

Everything everywhere all at once 
Alt. Top gun: Maverick

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY 

All quiet on the Western front
Alt. Tár

All quiet on the Western front
Alt. Elvis 

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Elvis x All quiet on the Western front
Alt. Babylon

Babylon
Alt. Elvis

 

SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick
Alt. All quiet on the Western front
 
Top Gun: Maverick 
Alt: All quiet on the Western front

 

COSTUME

Elvis x Black Panther: Wakanda forever
Alt: Babylon

Elvis 
Alt: Babylon

 

MAKE UP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Whale
Alt. Elvis
 
The Whale
Alt. The Batman

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: the way of water
Alt. All quiet on the Western front
 
Avatar: the way of water
Alt. The Batman

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

All quiet on the Western front
Alt. The Banshees of Inisherin

All quiet on the Western front
Alt. The Fabelmans

 

ORIGINAL SONG

Lift me up - Black Panther: Wakanda forever x Naatu naatu
Alt. Hold my hand - Top Gun: Maverick
 
Naatu naatu - RRR
Alt. Hold my hand - Top Gun: Maverick

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Oscars nominations 2023: Everything Everywhere

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Disclosure: I googled what actually came out that would be eligible for the Oscars, because watching movies at home and at the theatres have become a blur. 'tis a sad state of big screen cinemas.

My friend Griz's predix are in purple, as usual.

Disclaimer: I have not been following the award season at all, so basically this prediction set is based on mostly my own biased views.

PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: the Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
The Whale
Women Talking

Alt. The Wonder

Is it wishful to put The Wonder in as Alt., when I could've put in Top Gun? Or the disbelief that Top Gun would actually be a best picture nominee is valid? I voted against it twice on this list, placing Glass Onion instead of it in the main section. I'm sticking to my non-violent gun.

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking

DIRECTOR

Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Todd Field - Tár

Alt. Baz Luhrman - Elvis

I can not imagine the Academy is going with any director of action movies, or Luhrman.

Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin  
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Baz Luhrman - Elvis
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Todd Field - Tár

Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Ana de Armas - Blonde

Alt. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

It's really a two-actors race here, innit?

Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Viola Davis - The Woman King

Alt:
Ana de Armas - Blonde

ACTOR

Austin Butler - Elvis   
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Bill Nighy - Living
Paul Mescal - Aftersun

Alt. Daniel Kaluuya  – Nope

Kaluuya should be there, even if his odds are not high.


Paul Mescal - Aftersun
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler - Elvis
Bill Nighy - Living
Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Alt: Huge Jackman - The Son


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Hong Chau - The Whale

Alt. Keke Palmer – Nope

I love Bassett, in everything else, but she was actressing in every scene in Panther. It's truly puzzling to me that she's in the race. And also, I may be overplaying my Nope votes here.

Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Hong Chau - The Whale


Alt: Jessie Buckley - Women Talking

SUPPORTING ACTOR
 

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Alt. Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans


Maybe SAG seals the deal, but we all know who's gonna win anyway.

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin 

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse 

Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

Alt: Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
 

Aftersun 
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin

Alt. Triangle of Sadness
 

I wonder if Turning Red could make it?

Aftersun The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Tár  Alt: Triangle of Sadness
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár  

Alt: Triangle of Sadness


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

All Quiet on the Western Front Living The Whale Women Talking  Alt: She Said
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking

Alt. She Said

Eh?

All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion Living The Whale Women Talking  Alt: She Said
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking

Alt: She Said

That's all I've got, but, Griz's got more!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
 

Alt: The Batman

The Menu had great cinematography, but I also would've put Nope in as well.


BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Top Gun: Maverick Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis The Fabelmans Alt: Glass Onion BEST COSTUME DESIGN Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis The Fabelmans Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris Alt: Corsage BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING All Quiet on the Western Front The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis The Whale Alt: Babylon BEST SOUND All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Batman Elvis Top Gun: Maverick Alt: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever BEST VISUAL EFFECTS All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Top Gun: Maverick Alt: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Top Gun is more of a practical effects innit? BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin Black Panther: Wakanda Forever The Fabelmans Tár Alt: Pinocchio

Isn't this a shoo-in for Tar? BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Life Me Up" - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever "Ciao Papa" - Pinocchio "Naatu Naatu" - RRR "Hold My Hand" - Top Gun: Maverick "Carolina" - Where The Crawdads Sing Alt: "Stand Up" - Till

I know Hound Dog isn't an original song, but Doja Cat's remix is my favourite song of the year from films.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Marcel the Shell with Shoes On Pinocchio Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Turning Red Wendell and Wild Alt: Strange World

Turning Red is actually my favourite of the ones I've seen on this list, which just means it's better than Pinocchio. Heh. BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) Bardo (Mexico) Decision to Leave (South Korea) The Quiet Girl (Ireland) Alt: Close (Belgium)

Shame I've seen none of these. :(

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Recently Seen (out of *****)

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