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Disclosure: I googled what actually came out that would be eligible for the Oscars, because watching movies at home and at the theatres have become a blur. 'tis a sad state of big screen cinemas.
My friend Griz's predix are in purple, as usual.
Disclaimer: I have not been following the award season at all, so basically this
prediction set is based on mostly my own biased views.
PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: the Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
The Whale
Women Talking
Alt. The Wonder
Is it wishful to put The Wonder in as Alt., when I could've put in Top Gun? Or the disbelief that Top Gun would actually be a best picture nominee is valid? I voted against it twice on this list, placing Glass Onion instead of it in the main section. I'm sticking to my non-violent gun.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Todd Field - Tár
Alt. Baz Luhrman - Elvis
I can not imagine the Academy is going with any director of action movies, or Luhrman.
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Baz Luhrman - Elvis
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Todd Field - Tár
Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick
ACTRESS
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Ana de Armas - Blonde
Alt. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Alt: Ana de Armas - Blonde
ACTOR
Austin Butler - Elvis
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Bill Nighy - Living
Paul Mescal - Aftersun
Alt. Daniel Kaluuya – Nope
Kaluuya should be there, even if his odds are not high.
Paul Mescal - Aftersun
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler - Elvis
Bill Nighy - Living
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Alt: Huge Jackman - The Son
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Hong Chau - The Whale
Alt. Keke Palmer – Nope
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Hong Chau - The Whale
Alt: Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse
Alt. Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Maybe SAG seals the deal, but we all know who's gonna win anyway.
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Alt: Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aftersun
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin
Alt. Triangle of Sadness
I wonder if Turning Red could make it?
Aftersun The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Tár Alt: Triangle of Sadness
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Alt: Triangle of Sadness
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front Living The Whale Women Talking Alt: She Said
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking
Alt. She Said
Eh?
All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion Living The Whale Women Talking Alt: She Said
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking
Alt: She Said
That's all I've got, but, Griz's got more!
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: The Batman
The Menu had great cinematography, but I also would've put Nope in as well.
BEST FILM EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Alt: Glass Onion
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris
Alt: Corsage
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Alt: Babylon
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Top Gun is more of a practical effects innit? BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin Black Panther: Wakanda Forever The Fabelmans Tár Alt: Pinocchio
Isn't this a shoo-in for Tar? BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Life Me Up" - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever "Ciao Papa" - Pinocchio "Naatu Naatu" - RRR "Hold My Hand" - Top Gun: Maverick "Carolina" - Where The Crawdads Sing Alt: "Stand Up" - Till
I know Hound Dog isn't an original song, but Doja Cat's remix is my favourite song of the year from films.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Marcel the Shell with Shoes On Pinocchio Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Turning Red Wendell and Wild Alt: Strange World
Turning Red is actually my favourite of the ones I've seen on this list, which just means it's better than Pinocchio. Heh. BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) Bardo (Mexico) Decision to Leave (South Korea) The Quiet Girl (Ireland) Alt: Close (Belgium)
Shame I've seen none of these. :(
