Frances McDormand in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I've been feeling like McDormand in this scene here (not the entire film) this past week, so I'm glad for the Oscars to cap the night off. I wonder who'd tune in to the telecast though, with its roster of old-news, indie-crossing films, contrasting with the lingering buzz of new and exciting time at the theatre for one
particular movie (Black Panther's sucking the air out of every other
film), and a supercharged (read: uncomfortable) time in Hollywood right now. I'm going to try and will this process into a light, entertaining show for myself somehow.
Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. (Actual results will be in red and show comments in blue).
Show comment: -Beautiful stage production -The stunt was meaningful, though Gal kinda shot this year's Oscars when she proclaimed watching A Wrinkle of Time was better than being at the Oscars. -Maya Rudolph and Tiffany Haddish were this year's Amy and Tina -Too bad the top pictures did not get highlighted. Couldn't they have left out the awkward military tribute? -Bigger guns from the best picture list that went home empty-handed: Ladybird and The Post. Other than these, the Academy really distributed the wealth. -This has been my best prediction showing yet! 18/21 correct, 20/21 with alternates. Griz got 15/21 correct, and 19/21 with alternates. I guess this means the Oscars was too predictable - you just have to follow the political line to predict these wins.
PICTURE
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri Alt. The shape of water
Historically, the Oscars tended to go epic rather than small, but the recent cultural climate and the last couple of years really threw the old conventional cobwebs off. Yet, even taking into consideration the backlash to Billboards, I still can't think of a solid reason for any other nominee to win this game.
Three Billboards Alt. The Shape of Water
Show comment: Hahahahahahaha. I did not read about this, so having Dunaway and Beatty back is hilarious. Oh wait, did they read it correctly??? Wow. Well del Toro checked. I guess the backlash was real.
DIRECTOR Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water Alt. Jordan Peele – Get out
There's no stopping del Toro, which is too bad because Christopher Nolan deserves this more. The only other person who could pull a surprise at this point is Peele, but Shape of Water's more epic feel will likely win out.
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water Alt. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Show comment: D'awwwwwwwwww. Finally, the last of the Mexican trio won.
ACTRESS Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri Alt. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
There's no denying Frances, who won pretty much everything leading up to the Oscars.
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Alt. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Show comment: McDormand's laugh juxtaposed with the spine-chilling request to the room.
ACTOR Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour Alt. Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name
I think Gary will get his Oscar, though this could be where things get interesting.
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Alt. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Show comment: Haven't seen the movie but Gary is lovely.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS Allison Janney – I, Tonya Alt. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
This is the only acting category where a minority could sneak in ... but nah. Allison got this. Oscarssowhite(andMexican) it is.
Allison Janney - I, Tonya Alt. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Show comment: Beautiful dress on Allison.
SUPPORTING ACTOR Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri Alt. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Wouldn't it be something if Dafoe wins this? I mean, poor Sam. I like him in a lot of projects, but not Billboards. It is a wonder that his ignoramus character actually manages to get him a nom, and a dominating one at that.
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Alt. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Show comment: Love Sam's blend of sweetness and humility in his speech.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Get out Alt. Lady bird
A hard category to predict - Get out did win WGA, though I think Ladybird is more screen-play flashy in comparison. Which narrative will win out: minority or women? The only reason I'm predicting Get out is because Lady bird has a competition for the women narrative: Three Billboards. Probably split the vote, and Get out rises. This means Lady Bird goes home empty handed, which would be a surprisingly poor show for a critical darling.
Three Billboards Alt. Get Out
Show comment: Wow Nicole's dress. I'm impressed at my reasoning for this win.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Call me by your name Alt. Mudbound
Hard to imagine Call me would lose this one, especially with the speech at the end. However, Mudbound could sneak in. Not nearly as much oppression in Call me...
Call Me By Your Name Alt. Molly's Game
Show comment: "We've all gone through first love, I hope, and come out on the other side intact."
FOREIGN LANGUAGE A fantastic woman Alt. The square
The problem with The Square winning is that it's like shooting fish in a barrel, and it does not give the Academy political brownie points. A fantastic woman would. Let us remember that Toni Erdmann lost to The Salesman last year, probably for the same reason.
The Square (Sweden) Alt. Loveless (Russia)
Show comment: vindicated!
ANIMATED Coco Alt. The Breadwinner
I can't imagine Coco losing this, simply because the other ones just don't seem to have much support.
Coco Alt. The Breadwinner Show comment: I want a BB8.
DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places x Icarus Alt. Last Men in Aleppo
Similar to animated, I don't see a lot of support for the other films. At least not on the internet, and we know the internet is everything.
Faces Places Alt. Last Men in Aleppo
Show comment: apparently, the internet is not everything.
EDITING Dunkirk Alt. Baby Driver
Will Dunkirk get a big category consolation prize?
Baby Driver Alt. Dunkirk
Show comment: Thanking the director's wife, heh. Thank you to the audience, oh Jimmy.
CINEMATOGRAPHY Blade Runner 2049 Alt. Dunkirk
Get that Oscar, Deakins!
Blade Runner 2049 Alt. Dunkirk
Show comment: YES!
PRODUCTION DESIGN The shape of water Alt. Blade Runner 2049
It would be weird for a movie to just win Best Director and nothing else, wouldn't it? For my money, I would give it to Blade Runner.
The Shape of Water Alt. Blade Runner 2049
Show comment: Woo shout out to Toronto! What are that man's glasses? Lupita's dress: wowza.
VISUAL EFFECTS
War for the planet of the apes Alt. Blade Runner: 2049
Lots and lots of ape suits.
Blade Runner 2049 Alt. War for the Planet of the Apes
Show comment: Woot!! First win for Blade Runner!
SOUND MIXING Dunkirk Alt. Baby Driver
Baby Driver had wonderful mix of sound but Dunkirk should win this.
Dunkirk Alt. Baby Driver
Show comment: flight and safe landing, yes, we all need these.
SOUND EDITING Dunkirk Alt. Baby Driver
Dunkirk is a lot of sound.
Dunkirk Alt. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Show comment: These guys are the chillest.
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING Darkest Hour Alt. Wonder
I tend to forget the hairstyling part of this category, but that's because quite often the winner is based on make-up. For that, I'm predicting the Alt. would be Wonder. Yes, I'm deliberating the Alts, because Darkest Hour got this in the bag.
Darkest Hour Alt. Wonder
Show comment: Armie & Gal, what a presenter pair. The winner was so sweet. He thanked his cat. :'(
COSTUME Phantom Thread Alt. The shape of water
Throw P.T. Anderson a bone here!
Phantom Thread Alt. Victoria & Abdul
Show comment: Eva Marie Saint!!! Her opening introduction was funny and touching... what a narrator! That man is going to win the jet ski.
SCORE The shape of water Alt. Dunkirk
Not on the Water train, and would love a Dunkirk surprise here (I'm rooting against myself and for Griz here?).
Dunkirk Alt. The Shape of Water
Show comment: Walken got a standing ovation because ... he was old?
SONG Coco – Remember me Alt. Call me by your name – Mystery of Love
Eh. It'd be a pleasant surprise if Sufjan Stevens wins.
It's the year of the chillun! Probably poetically fitting that we had this many child-acting breakthroughs in the same year an adult-child wreaked havoc in the White House? Too bad AMPAS ignored these performances. Fear not, kids, I'm here to give you mentions and go where no one cares. Literally (because no one cares about this list but me). Bright futures you'll all have though! And, to mark the crazy year that was 2017, we also had some pretty outrageous sequences committed to the big screen: the 'performance art installation' in The Square (actually, everything The Square), the 'battle' in mother!, the botched 'attempt' (can't do spoiler) and slaughter scenes in On Body and Soul, the 'spin-and-pick-off' problem-solving attempt in The Killing of the Sacred Deer, and not to be outdone, the heavy-metal headbanging nuns of Jeannette the Childhood of Joan of Arc. The following picks are my final words for this year in film, uncharted films notwithstanding.
CINEMAPS' TOP 10
The other side of hope
01. Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope; Kaurismäki) ****1/2 Relevant, hysterical, damning, moving, hopeful (yes, I must use it), and masterfully crafted: I wish this humanistic tale about the struggles to make it together and the compassion born out of these struggles would be seen more widely. We need this.
02. Get out (Peele) **** The best darn time I had at the theatre with an audience last year was at the Get Out screening. I'm not sure how much of that coloured my perception of this film, but I'm pretty certain its wit and Peele's balls-to-the-wall approach were not accidental.
03. Dunkirk (Nolan) ****The technical marvel of the year, I must say. This was a tense ride, unforgiving and yet triumphant at the same time. I love what he did with the timelines. Again with the timeline! Methinks Nolan is a twee bit obsessed with time.
04. The Square (Östlund) **** Shocking and hilarious. You must forgive its choice of targets, simply for the outrageous way it brought a canon to a slingshot practice. Its bigger theme of disconnection is worthy of a conversation.
05. The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Lanthimos) **** Another off kilter tale from the land of Lanthimos, where people just act out their psychological state and the whole world's emotions are as plain as day. Colin Farrell again delivers such a good performance here. He belongs in this universe.
06. The Beguiled (Coppola) **** This film was sweating off the screen; there was something very dirty about the whole deal, despite its beautiful setting and the fantastic people populating it. One could make a double-header evening with this one and Get out, and call it "White people have issues" night out.
07. Zama (Martel) **** Epic, beautifully shot film spanning multiple physical and spiritual journeys, crafted by an Argentinian woman to boot!
08. Blade Runner: 2049 (Villeneuve)***1/2 This odd, contemplative film will find its rightful audience in due time. People forgot how dark and deliberating the original Blade Runner was huh?
09. Lady Bird (Gerwig)***1/2 Often, characters develop throughout the course of a film, and we grow along with them. This was a rare bird in that its characters didn't really change, but we grew from observing their plumage anyway. Witness (possible spoiler): watch Laurie Metcalf's all-too-familiar mother figure go through her relationship with Lady Bird, and may be you, too, will be transformed as I did, no matter her character arc.
10. Phantom Thread (Anderson) ***1/2 A delicate, meticulous film that stays with you, propelled by sheer excellence in craftsmanship from all the people involved.
Get out
Grin and Pulse The most fun I had watching a movie this past year
Get out
Jeannette, l'enfance de Jeanne d'Arc (Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc)
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
Atomic Blonde
Baby Driver
Frames Impressive, memorable staging of a shot or series of shots
A cow's gaze at the people through its pen, awaiting certain fate, On Body and Soul Coffee run sequence, Baby Driver
Red salt dispersed from the fighter planes, Star Wars: the last Jedi
Georges Laurent rolling himself through the street, camera is at a distant, Happy End
Mr. Woodcock watches Alma through a keyhole, and she sees him, Phantom Thread
Director Confident storytelling, with a touch of "wow"
Aki Kaurismäki, Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
Lucrecia Martel,Zama
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Dafne Keen in Logan
Performance I feel you Child actors: Dafne Keen, Logan; Ahn Seo-hyun, Okja; Lise Leplat Prudhomme, Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc; Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project; Fantine Harduin, Happy End
Adult actors: Frances McDormand, Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
Maryana Spivak, Loveless
Jennifer Lawrence, mother! Colin Farrell, The killing of a sacred deer and The Beguiled
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Daniel Kaluuya, Get out
Cate Blanchett, Thor: Ragnarok
Meinhard Neumann, Western
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Writing Create interesting, layered, cohesive universe; would make for a great read on its own
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Ruben Östlund, The Square
Greta Gerwig,Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get out
Zama
Editing Interesting, effective cuts and stitches that support and move the story visually
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
Zama
mother!
Cinematography Takes my breath away
Blade Runner: 2049
Zama
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
The Beguiled
Dunkirk
Blade Runner: 2049
Art Direction / Production Design Transportive, impactful set design
Blade Runner: 2049
The Shape of Water
The Beguiled
Ghost in the Shell
The Other side of hope
Effects Movie Magic
Blade Runner: 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
mother!
Kong: Skull Island
Ghost in the Shell
Sound Amplify the visuals and enrich my sensory experience
Dunkirk
Blade Runner: 2049
Baby Driver
Zama
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Score Was it memorable?
Jeannette, l'enfance de Jeanne d'Arc (Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc)
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
Stray comments:
- I, Tonya was more fun than I thought it would be.
- Ryan Gosling is endlessly watchable.
- I was a little obsessed with James McAvoy in 2017; I blame having seen
him in person at TIFF, and his role in Submergence definitely helped.
- Atomic Blonde kicked some serious butt.
- A ghost story had an awesome way of approaching the concept of ghosts.
- The Big Sick was sweet but underwhelming due to Aziz Ansari's trailblazing series.
- I've sworn off pork, on top of beef, for 2017 (and still going), thanks to Okja and Body and Soul
- Lady Bird changed how I saw (some) moms.
- I liked Jedi and Adam Driver enough to overlook the glaring fault of Kylo Ren's motive.
- Reality check: brutal divorced couples spat in Loveless, Halley's style of mothering in The Florida Project - seen 'em in real life.
- mother! was a wild ride of a woman's perception of her (mis)treatment by the world - can't see it as anything but the interior of a woman flipped inside out.
- Thor was underrated for how it gave wonderful female characters: Tessa Thompson was so awesome as Valkyrie, and Cate Blanchett was the sexiest villain anywhere, and at her most commanding of screen presence since Carol ("kneel," yes ma'am!); there was also Korg.
- Guardians of the Galaxy 2 disappointed.
- Logan Lucky was a lot of fun, and Daniel Craig was a hoot.
- Logan was surprisingly cool.
- The Beguiled was so well cast.
- Wonder Woman had an amazing trailer and very charming leads, but she deserved a better last third of the film (it devolved into a series of terrible, forgettable 'special' effects).
- The Shape of Water was lightweight del Toro.
- Three Billboards had a slight misjudgment in handling thorny issues outside of grief and vengeance, but on its main theme, it was on point.
- Mudbound was a slug and ultimately too TV-movie of the week to be great; however, I did cry quite a bit watching it, due to sheer anger and sadness at the injustice of it all; Garrett Hedlund was fantastic in it.
- Armie Hammer was the ultimate golden All-American boy in Call me by your name, if there ever was one; really loved the film for its location mostly, I'm afraid, and maybe Michael Stuhlbarg's speech at the end.
- The suggestive post-ending of the Post was probably the best part of the film.
- The disaster artist was funny to watch and quote, but forgettable after a few days.
- The disaster that was Superman's face in Justice League was unreal. Literally.
- Sad about the squashed potential of Ghost in the Shell.
Uncharted Films I'm intending to see that could make a dent on the list above
Maudie
War of the Planet of the Apes
Detroit
Wind river
First they killed my father
Loving Vincent
Charted Ranked out of *****
****1/2
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope; Kaurismäki)
****
Get out (Peele)
Dunkirk (Nolan)
The Square (Östlund)
The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Lanthimos)
The Beguiled (Coppola)
Zama (Martel)
***1/2
Blade Runner: 2049 (Villeneuve)
Lady Bird (Gerwig)
Phantom Thread (Anderson)
Jeannette, l'enfance de Jeanne d'Arc (Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc; Dumont)
Logan (Mangold)
On Body & Soul (Enyedi)
Makala (Gras)
The nothing factory (Pinho)
I, Tonya (Gillespie)
The Florida Project (Baker)
Call me by your name (Guadagnino)
Logan Lucky (Soderbergh)
Baby Driver (Wright)
The death of Stalin (Iannucci)
Western (Grisebach)
mother! (Aronofsky)
Loveless (Zvyagintsev)
Happy end (Haneke)
Atomic Blonde (Leitch)
***
A ghost story (Lowery)
The Post (Spielberg)
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (McDonagh)
Mudbound (Rees)
The Shape of Water (del Toro)
The third murder (Koreeda)
The Big Sick (Showalter)
It (Muschietti)
Spiderman: Homecoming (Watts)
Okja (Bong)
Split (Shyamalan)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Johnson)
**1/2
Submergence (Wenders)
Thor: Ragnarok (Waititi)
Wonder Woman (Jenkins)
The disaster artist (Franco)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Gunn)
Coco (Unkrich)
Kedi (Torun)
Ghost in the shell (Sanders)
Alien: Covenant (Scott)
Justice League (Snyder)
**
The Dark Tower (Arcel)
Kong: Skull Island (Vogt-Roberts)
Mummy (Kurtzman)
Gaga: Five foot two (Moukarbel)
*
The Great Wall (Zhang)
American Assassin (Cuesta)
As usual, last minute posting! Hopefully this time it's better than the savagery of the Globes predix for me. Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. To the death! (Actual results will be in red).
(Also: I realize I have the same picture up but I'm too lazy and tired to change it now. Edit: I've changed it to the surprise horse, Phantom Thread).
PICTURE
The Big Sick
Call me by your name
Dunkirk The Florida ProjectPhantom Thread
Get out I, Tonya
Lady bird
The post
The shape of water
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are a couple of films that could replace what I've selected here, namely Darkest Hour in place of The Big Sick or The Florida Project. I feel like the Academy may lean American, and sight unseen, Darkest Hour sounds dreadful. I'd love for Blade Runner:2049 to get a nomination here. And I may vomit if Wonder Woman gets in, which it very well can given the PGA nomination.
Call Me By Your Name Darkest Hour Dunkirk The Florida Project Get Out I, Tonya Lady Bird The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards
DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird Martin McDonagh – Three BillboardsP.T. Anderson - Phantom Thread! Wowza.
Alt. Steven Spielberg – The Post
I feel like going with the DGA on this one. On the off chance that people actually saw Phantom Thread, P.T. Anderson could sneak in. But Spielberg's The Post is very rousing and liberal, people may wanna reward him just for making it.
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk Steven Spielberg - The Post
Alt: Jordan Peele - Get out
ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – The shape of water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie –I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post
Alt. Jessica Chastain – Molly's Game
I think this category is set.
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Margot Robbie - I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird Meryl Streep - The Post Alt: Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game
ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name
Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour James Franco – The disaster artist Alt. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I don't know how much the allegations are going to affect James' chances, considering the timing of the voting closed just a day after the allegations became news. If I had thought that James Franco deserved, as an actor, his place on this list, I would feel sorry that unproven allegations cost him the rightful nom. Having said that, he's not be on my list of noms so I would not shed tears should he get left off. Denzel could sneak in, not Tom Hanks (he got out-acted by Streep).
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread James Franco - The Disaster Artist Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Alt: Tom Hanks - The post
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird Holly Hunter – The Big SickLesley Manville!!
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Alt. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
The SAG clip I saw of Hong Chau's performance featured a lot of crying, so I'm putting her in. I dislike the idea of Mary J. Blige getting a nomination for Mudbound, having seen the film. I wonder if people just want to give awards to famous names simply for showing up and not screwing up. It's not even subtly fabulous, like Dafoe. It's a non-event. I also don't understand Octavia Spencer's buzz here. I wish Lesley Manville would snag a surprise one here. This may mean I'm racist after all.
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound Holly Hunter - The Big Sick Allison Janney - I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water Alt: Hong Chau - Downsizing
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins – The shape of water
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer – All the money in the world Alt. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call me by your name
Will we have a political vote here for Plummer? Not saying that he doesn't deserve it (I haven't seen the movie), just saying it may have the extra current sauce on. And will Three Billboards pull all three possible noms? I'd say yes based on the support shown for the film so far.
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Alt: Christopher Plummer - All the money in the world
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The big sick
Lady Bird
Get out
The shape of water
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri Alt. I, Tonya
I think the Academy may want to reward the Big Sick here with a nom, but it's a shakey bet. I'm not sure whether I, Tonya (backed by WGA) or The post (backed by current climate good will) would sneak in here. My wish is for Phantom Thread to sneak in.
The Big Sick Get Out Lady Bird The Shape of Water Three Billboards Alt: I, Tonya
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
The disaster artist
Molly's game
Logan
Mudbound
Alt. The beguiled
Is The beguiled a wishful alternate? A hundred times yes. I have a hard time believing Logan would get a nom over the tour de force The beguiled, but ... WGA nom!
Call Me By Your Name The Disaster Artist Molly's Game Mudbound Logan Alt: Wonder
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
The Square
A fantastic woman In the fadeOn body and soul!!
Loveless Foxtrot
Alt. The insult
I've seen On body and soul (short listed) and I'm surprised it's there because it's an odd duck. I'd love for it to be included though!
A Fantastic Woman (Chile) In the Fade (Germany) The Insult (Lebanon) Loveless (Russia) The Square (Sweden) Alt: Foxtrot (Israel)
ANIMATED
The breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent The LEGO Batman movieBoss baby
Alt. Mary & the Witch's Flower
I've only seen Coco, unfortunately, so these are really blind guesses. I can't bear the thoght of "Boss Baby" being an Oscar nominee.
The Breadwinner Coco Ferdinand The LEGO Batman Movie Loving Vincent Alt: Mary and the Witch's Flower
DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places Jane City of ghostsAbacus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island Alt. Icarus
Griz is sitting this category out, but I feel obligated so I'm going to do it anyway. Bonus points for me. :p
EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Three billboards Get out
Alt. I, Tonya
I'm not sure about The shape of water, but if it's a second front runner, it needs this nom.
Baby Driver Dunkirk The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Alt: Blade Runner 2049
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Darkest hour
Mudbound
Alt. Call me by your name
I'm just going by what the guild nominated. I don't understand Mudbound cinematography nomination over something like The Beguiled.
Blade Runner 2049 Darkest Hour Dunkirk Mudbound The Shape of Water
Alt:Three Billboards
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The shape of water
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest hour
Dunkirk Phantom threadBeauty and the Beast
Alt. The post
PT Anderson loves his set, so I'm hoping its flashiness prevails (though the guild didn't think it was all that, strangely enough).
Beauty and the Beast Blade Runner 2049 Darkest Hour The Post The Shape of Water Alt: Dunkirk
VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Star wars: the last Jedi The shape of water
War for the planet of the apes Dunkirk Kong: Skull Island
Alt. Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2
I have nuthin' to say here.
Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi War for the Planet of the Apes Alt: Okja
SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The shape of water
Star Wars: the last Jedi The greatest showmanBlade Runner: 2049 Alt. Wonder Woman
Wonder Woman, if it should show up, should probably show up here.
Baby Driver Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi Alt: The Greatest Showman
SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: the last Jedi
The shape of water
Alt. Wonder Woman
Sound has always been confusing.
Baby Driver Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi Alt: War for the planet of the apes
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Alt. I, Tonya
Old people make up!
Darkest Hour I, Tonya Wonder
Alt: Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2
COSTUME
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
The shape of water
Darkest hour Murder on the orient express
Alt. Victoria and Abdul
How can contemporary work get a nom here?
Beauty and the Beast The Greatest Showman Murder on the Orient Express Phantom Thread The Shape of Water
Alt: Darkest hour
SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom thread
The shape of water The PostStar Wars
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Darkest hour
Outside of Dunkirk, I can't remember any of other pictures' score. Though, Phantom Thread's score was very much part of the film so it should be here.
Darkest Hour Dunkirk Phantom Thread The Post The Shape of Water
Alt: Victoria and Abdul
SONG
Mudbound – Mighty River
Coco – Remember me
Call me by your name – Vision of Gideons (hopefully) or Mystery of Love (Likely)
The greatest showman – This is me Beauty and the beast - Ever more
Alt. Marshall - Standing up for something
I totally looked up Marshall.
Beauty and the Beast Call Me By Your Name Coco The Greatest Showman Mudbound
The good:
- Oprah's speech - not a dry eye in the house!
- Look at all the different LBD!
- Natalie Portman's zinger about the all male director slate!
The meh:
- Seth Meyer's opening monologue
The bad:
- My prognostication
- Seth Meyer's jokes delivered with other people
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Huh. They really liked Three Billboards. It just leapfrogged into front runner status? The power of TIFF's People Choice Winner!
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Lady Bird
I did say it was unstoppable. And I was correct, for, like, twice tonight.
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
"I mean, Nolan should win, but the foreign press may want to reward Guillermo for his most accessible film yet."<-- Why didn't I go with this?
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
YES! I don't mind being wrong here (again with the Alts... sigh).
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Finally.
BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
"It's Margot vs. Saoirse time. If Lady Bird is going to win its best picture category, Saoirse will rise. But I feel like Margot Robbie is a much better schmoozer, and she may have already worked her magic with the group. And it's a showier role. This is my risky bet." <-- Why did I change it last minute?
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
"This one is too easy." <--- I should give this up.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney- I, Tonya
I'm going to have to do better on the Oscars! Jeebus!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I'm happy for him - an actor with so many years in the dog house finally getting his due! It also means Willem Dafoe is not a slam dunk?
BEST SCREENPLAY
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
"Gerwig didn't get a nomination for directing, so this is hers to lose." <--- Holy crap she did lose. But look at all the other people coming to comment on her behalf - Oscars nomination here you go, Gerwig!
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Greatest Showman
"It's Mary J. Blige." <--- Apparently does not matter to the Globes. The winning song sucks, guys.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Shape of Water
"I think this is a lock (famous last prognostication word)." <--- This.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Coco
Phew, an actual 'sure thing' I got something right.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In the Fade (Germany)
"The Square has production tips in three major foreign countries. I'm going by the number." <--- Haha I'm the 'Alt.' queen tonight. This has to be a record for failing of some sort. Whoo!
Well I missed the nomination predictions, but in my defense, I was occupied with an even bigger event to my profession (like, the Olympics of my field) so I'm going to give me a pass. I'll get right to this, and I can only hope that the mood is not dampened too much on the show tomorrow. Purple is my friend and long time guest, Griz.
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Post Alt: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water Alt: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
It's the foreign PRESS, and The Post is very Press. And au courant.
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Lady Bird Alt: I, Tonya
Lady Bird Alt: Get out
Lady Bird is kinda unstoppable? I mean, Get out theoretically could get it, but it's a horror and still a rare type to win these things.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk Alt: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water Alt: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
I mean, Nolan should win, but the foreign press may want to reward Guillermo for his most accessible film yet.
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water Alt: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri Alt: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
I like Sally, and she has the best chance here, but Frances was better in her film. Why am I betting against Streep? I have to rethink this before the ceremony tomorrow.
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Alt: Timothée Chalamet - Call me by your name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Alt: Timothée Chalamet - Call me by your name
I haven't seen Gary Oldman's latest performance, but my god I didn't even recognize him in the trailer. That's at least is a lot of make up performance. I'm also picking Gary because I have a hard time believing anyone else would take it (Daniel Day Lewis missed the SAG?), and I don't want Timothée Chalamet to.
BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya Alt: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya Alt: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
It's Margot vs. Saoirse time. If Lady Bird is going to win its best picture category, Saoirse will rise. But I feel like Margot Robbie is a much better schmoozer, and she may have already worked her magic with the group. And it's a showier role. This is my risky bet.
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out Alt: James Franco - The Disaster Artist
James Franco - The Disaster Artist Alt: Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
This one is too easy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird Alt: Allison Janney- I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird Alt: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
The two mommy dearests are going to duke it out. May the more human one win! This category is diverse yo!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project Alt: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project Alt: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I wish for an upset in this category just for the fun of it. Well, mostly for the off chance that Armie Hammer would get up on stage and flash them teeth! But, nah, it's Dafoe's to lose.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Lady Bird Alt: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri Alt: The Shape of Water
Gerwig didn't get a nomination for directing, so this is hers to lose.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Mudbound Alt: Coco
Mudbound Alt: Coco
It's Mary J. Blige.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk Alt: The Shape of Water
Dunkirk Alt: The Shape of Water
I think this is a lock (famous last prognostication word).
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Coco Alt: The Breadwinner
Coco Alt: The Breadwinner
Having seen Coco, this was a minor Pixar that somehow did really well outside the States. Lucky for it, the rest of the selection looks pretty bad so it's all yours, Coco!
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Square (Sweden) Alt: In the Fade (Germany)
The Square (Sweden) Alt: First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
The Square has production tips in three major foreign countries. I'm going by the number.
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