2018 Oscars Winners Prediction and Show: may the best politics win

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Frances McDormand in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I've been feeling like McDormand in this scene here (not the entire film) this past week, so I'm glad for the Oscars to cap the night off. I wonder who'd tune in to the telecast though, with its roster of old-news, indie-crossing films, contrasting with the lingering buzz of new and exciting time at the theatre for one particular movie (Black Panther's sucking the air out of every other film), and a supercharged (read: uncomfortable) time in Hollywood right now. I'm going to try and will this process into a light, entertaining show for myself somehow.

Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. (Actual results will be in red and show comments in blue).

Show comment:
-Beautiful stage production
-The stunt was meaningful, though Gal kinda shot this year's Oscars when she proclaimed watching A Wrinkle of Time was better than being at the Oscars.
-Maya Rudolph and Tiffany Haddish were this year's Amy and Tina
-Too bad the top pictures did not get highlighted. Couldn't they have left out the awkward military tribute?
-Bigger guns from the best picture list that went home empty-handed: Ladybird and The Post. Other than these, the Academy really distributed the wealth.
-This has been my best prediction showing yet! 18/21 correct, 20/21 with alternates. Griz got 15/21 correct, and 19/21 with alternates. I guess this means the Oscars was too predictable - you just have to follow the political line to predict these wins.

PICTURE
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. The shape of water

Historically, the Oscars tended to go epic rather than small, but the recent cultural climate and the last couple of years really threw the old conventional cobwebs off. Yet, even taking into consideration the backlash to Billboards, I still can't think of a solid reason for any other nominee to win this game.

Three Billboards
Alt. The Shape of Water

Show comment: Hahahahahahaha. I did not read about this, so having Dunaway and Beatty back is hilarious. Oh wait, did they read it correctly??? Wow. Well del Toro checked. I guess the backlash was real.

DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Alt. Jordan Peele – Get out

There's no stopping del Toro, which is too bad because Christopher Nolan deserves this more. The only other person who could pull a surprise at this point is Peele, but Shape of Water's more epic feel will likely win out.

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Alt. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

Show comment: D'awwwwwwwwww. Finally, the last of the Mexican trio won.

ACTRESS
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

There's no denying Frances, who won pretty much everything leading up to the Oscars.

Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Alt. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

Show comment: McDormand's laugh juxtaposed with the spine-chilling request to the room.

ACTOR
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name

I think Gary will get his Oscar, though this could be where things get interesting.

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name

Show comment: Haven't seen the movie but Gary is lovely.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

This is the only acting category where a minority could sneak in ... but nah. Allison got this. Oscarssowhite(andMexican) it is.

Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

Show comment: Beautiful dress on Allison.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Wouldn't it be something if Dafoe wins this? I mean, poor Sam. I like him in a lot of projects, but not Billboards. It is a wonder that his ignoramus character actually manages to get him a nom, and a dominating one at that.

Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Alt. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

Show comment: Love Sam's blend of sweetness and humility in his speech.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get out
Alt. Lady bird

A hard category to predict - Get out did win WGA, though I think Ladybird is more screen-play flashy in comparison. Which narrative will win out: minority or women? The only reason I'm predicting Get out is because Lady bird has a competition for the women narrative: Three Billboards. Probably split the vote, and Get out rises. This means Lady Bird goes home empty handed, which would be a surprisingly poor show for a critical darling.

Three Billboards
Alt. Get Out

Show comment: Wow Nicole's dress. I'm impressed at my reasoning for this win.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
Alt. Mudbound

Hard to imagine Call me would lose this one, especially with the speech at the end. However, Mudbound could sneak in. Not nearly as much oppression in Call me...

Call Me By Your Name
Alt. Molly's Game

Show comment: "We've all gone through first love, I hope, and come out on the other side intact."

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
A fantastic woman
Alt. The square

The problem with The Square winning is that it's like shooting fish in a barrel, and it does not give the Academy political brownie points. A fantastic woman would. Let us remember that Toni Erdmann lost to The Salesman last year, probably for the same reason.

The Square (Sweden)
Alt. Loveless (Russia)

Show comment: vindicated!

ANIMATED
Coco
Alt. The Breadwinner

I can't imagine Coco losing this, simply because the other ones just don't seem to have much support.

Coco 
Alt. The Breadwinner

Show comment: I want a BB8.

DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places x Icarus
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo

Similar to animated, I don't see a lot of support for the other films. At least not on the internet, and we know the internet is everything.

Faces Places
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo

Show comment: apparently, the internet is not everything.

EDITING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver

Will Dunkirk get a big category consolation prize?

Baby Driver
Alt. Dunkirk

Show comment: Thanking the director's wife, heh. Thank you to the audience, oh Jimmy.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk

Get that Oscar, Deakins!

Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk

Show comment: YES!

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The shape of water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049

It would be weird for a movie to just win Best Director and nothing else, wouldn't it? For my money, I would give it to Blade Runner.

The Shape of Water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049

Show comment: Woo shout out to Toronto! What are that man's glasses? Lupita's dress: wowza.

VISUAL EFFECTS
War for the planet of the apes
Alt. Blade Runner: 2049

Lots and lots of ape suits.

Blade Runner 2049
Alt. War for the Planet of the Apes

Show comment: Woot!! First win for Blade Runner!

SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver

Baby Driver had wonderful mix of sound but Dunkirk should win this.

Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver

Show comment: flight and safe landing, yes, we all need these.

SOUND EDITING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver

Dunkirk is a lot of sound.

Dunkirk
Alt. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Show comment: These guys are the chillest.

MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder

I tend to forget the hairstyling part of this category, but that's because quite often the winner is based on make-up. For that, I'm predicting the Alt. would be Wonder. Yes, I'm deliberating the Alts, because Darkest Hour got this in the bag.

Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder

Show comment: Armie & Gal, what a presenter pair. The winner was so sweet. He thanked his cat. :'(

COSTUME
Phantom Thread
Alt. The shape of water

Throw P.T. Anderson a bone here!

Phantom Thread 
Alt. Victoria & Abdul

Show comment: Eva Marie Saint!!! Her opening introduction was funny and touching... what a narrator! That man is going to win the jet ski.

SCORE
The shape of water
Alt. Dunkirk

Not on the Water train, and would love a Dunkirk surprise here (I'm rooting against myself and for Griz here?).

Dunkirk
Alt. The Shape of Water

Show comment: Walken got a standing ovation because ... he was old?

SONG
Coco – Remember me
Alt. Call me by your name – Mystery of Love

Eh. It'd be a pleasant surprise if Sufjan Stevens wins.

Coco
Alt. The Greatest Showman

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CINEMAPS' BEST OF 2017: Les Enfants Terribles

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The Florida Project
It's the year of the chillun! Probably poetically fitting that we had this many child-acting breakthroughs in the same year an adult-child wreaked havoc in the White House? Too bad AMPAS ignored these performances. Fear not, kids, I'm here to give you mentions and go where no one cares. Literally (because no one cares about this list but me). Bright futures you'll all have though! And, to mark the crazy year that was 2017, we also had some pretty outrageous sequences committed to the big screen: the 'performance art installation' in The Square (actually, everything The Square), the 'battle' in mother!, the botched 'attempt' (can't do spoiler) and slaughter scenes in On Body and Soul, the 'spin-and-pick-off' problem-solving attempt in The Killing of the Sacred Deer, and not to be outdone, the heavy-metal headbanging nuns of Jeannette the Childhood of Joan of Arc. The following picks are my final words for this year in film, uncharted films notwithstanding.

CINEMAPS' TOP 10
The other side of hope
01. Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope; Kaurismäki) ****1/2 Relevant, hysterical, damning, moving, hopeful (yes, I must use it), and masterfully crafted: I wish this humanistic tale about the struggles to make it together and the compassion born out of these struggles would be seen more widely. We need this.

02. Get out (Peele) **** The best darn time I had at the theatre with an audience last year was at the Get Out screening. I'm not sure how much of that coloured my perception of this film, but I'm pretty certain its wit and Peele's balls-to-the-wall approach were not accidental.

03. Dunkirk (Nolan) ****The technical marvel of the year, I must say. This was a tense ride, unforgiving and yet triumphant at the same time. I love what he did with the timelines. Again with the timeline! Methinks Nolan is a twee bit obsessed with time.

04. The Square (Östlund) **** Shocking and hilarious. You must forgive its choice of targets, simply for the outrageous way it brought a canon to a slingshot practice. Its bigger theme of disconnection is worthy of a conversation.

05. The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Lanthimos) **** Another off kilter tale from the land of Lanthimos, where people just act out their psychological state and the whole world's emotions are as plain as day. Colin Farrell again delivers such a good performance here. He belongs in this universe.

06. The Beguiled (Coppola) **** This film was sweating off the screen; there was something very dirty about the whole deal, despite its beautiful setting and the fantastic people populating it. One could make a double-header evening with this one and Get out, and call it "White people have issues" night out.

07. Zama (Martel) **** Epic, beautifully shot film spanning multiple physical and spiritual journeys, crafted by an Argentinian woman to boot!

08. Blade Runner: 2049 (Villeneuve) ***1/2 This odd, contemplative film will find its rightful audience in due time. People forgot how dark and deliberating the original Blade Runner was huh?

09. Lady Bird (Gerwig) ***1/2 Often, characters develop throughout the course of a film, and we grow along with them. This was a rare bird in that its characters didn't really change, but we grew from observing their plumage anyway. Witness (possible spoiler): watch Laurie Metcalf's all-too-familiar mother figure go through her relationship with Lady Bird, and may be you, too, will be transformed as I did, no matter her character arc.

10. Phantom Thread (Anderson) ***1/2 A delicate, meticulous film that stays with you, propelled by sheer excellence in craftsmanship from all the people involved.

Get out
Grin and Pulse
The most fun I had watching a movie this past year
Get out
Jeannette, l'enfance de Jeanne d'Arc (Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc)
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
Atomic Blonde
Baby Driver

Frames
Impressive, memorable staging of a shot or series of shots
A cow's gaze at the people through its pen, awaiting certain fate, On Body and Soul
Coffee run sequence, Baby Driver
Red salt dispersed from the fighter planes, Star Wars: the last Jedi
Georges Laurent rolling himself through the street, camera is at a distant, Happy End
Mr. Woodcock watches Alma through a keyhole, and she sees him, Phantom Thread

Director
Confident storytelling, with a touch of "wow"
Aki Kaurismäki, Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
Lucrecia Martel, Zama
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Dafne Keen in Logan
Performance
I feel you
Child actors: Dafne Keen, Logan; Ahn Seo-hyun, Okja; Lise Leplat Prudhomme, Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc; Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project; Fantine Harduin, Happy End

Adult actors: Frances McDormand, Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri 
Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread  
Maryana Spivak, Loveless
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Colin Farrell, The killing of a sacred deer and The Beguiled

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Daniel Kaluuya, Get out
Cate Blanchett, Thor: Ragnarok   
Meinhard Neumann, Western
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Writing
Create interesting, layered, cohesive universe; would make for a great read on its own
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Ruben Östlund, The Square
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get out 


Zama
Editing
Interesting, effective cuts and stitches that support and move the story visually
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
Zama
mother!

Cinematography
Takes my breath away
Blade Runner: 2049 
Zama
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope)
The Beguiled
Dunkirk

Blade Runner: 2049
Art Direction / Production Design
Transportive, impactful set design
Blade Runner: 2049
The Shape of Water
The Beguiled
Ghost in the Shell
The Other side of hope

Effects
Movie Magic
Blade Runner: 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
mother!
Kong: Skull Island
Ghost in the Shell



Sound
Amplify the visuals and enrich my sensory experience
Dunkirk
Blade Runner: 2049
Baby Driver
Zama
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Score
Was it memorable?
Jeannette, l'enfance de Jeanne d'Arc (Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc)
Dunkirk
Baby Driver

Stray comments:
- I, Tonya was more fun than I thought it would be.
- Ryan Gosling is endlessly watchable.
- I was a little obsessed with James McAvoy in 2017; I blame having seen him in person at TIFF, and his role in Submergence definitely helped.
- Atomic Blonde kicked some serious butt.
- A ghost story had an awesome way of approaching the concept of ghosts.
- The Big Sick was sweet but underwhelming due to Aziz Ansari's trailblazing series.
- I've sworn off pork, on top of beef, for 2017 (and still going), thanks to Okja and Body and Soul
- Lady Bird changed how I saw (some) moms.
- I liked Jedi and Adam Driver enough to overlook the glaring fault of Kylo Ren's motive.
- Reality check: brutal divorced couples spat in Loveless, Halley's style of mothering in The Florida Project - seen 'em in real life.
- mother! was a wild ride of a woman's perception of her (mis)treatment by the world - can't see it as anything but the interior of a woman flipped inside out.
- Thor was underrated for how it gave wonderful female characters: Tessa Thompson was so awesome as Valkyrie, and Cate Blanchett was the sexiest villain anywhere, and at her most commanding of screen presence since Carol ("kneel," yes ma'am!); there was also Korg.
- Guardians of the Galaxy 2 disappointed.
- Logan Lucky was a lot of fun, and Daniel Craig was a hoot.
- Logan was surprisingly cool.
- The Beguiled was so well cast.
- Wonder Woman had an amazing trailer and very charming leads, but she deserved a better last third of the film (it devolved into a series of terrible, forgettable 'special' effects).
- The Shape of Water was lightweight del Toro.
- Three Billboards had a slight misjudgment in handling thorny issues outside of grief and vengeance, but on its main theme, it was on point.
- Mudbound was a slug and ultimately too TV-movie of the week to be great; however, I did cry quite a bit watching it, due to sheer anger and sadness at the injustice of it all; Garrett Hedlund was fantastic in it.
- Armie Hammer was the ultimate golden All-American boy in Call me by your name, if there ever was one; really loved the film for its location mostly, I'm afraid, and maybe Michael Stuhlbarg's speech at the end.
- The suggestive post-ending of the Post was probably the best part of the film.
- The disaster artist was funny to watch and quote, but forgettable after a few days.
- The disaster that was Superman's face in Justice League was unreal. Literally.
- Sad about the squashed potential of Ghost in the Shell.

Uncharted  
Films I'm intending to see that could make a dent on the list above
Maudie
War of the Planet of the Apes
Detroit
Wind river
First they killed my father
Loving Vincent

Charted
Ranked out of *****
****1/2
Toivon tuolla puolen (The other side of hope; Kaurismäki)

****
Get out (Peele)
Dunkirk (Nolan)
The Square (Östlund)
The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Lanthimos)
The Beguiled (Coppola)   
Zama (Martel)

***1/2 
Blade Runner: 2049 (Villeneuve)
Lady Bird (Gerwig)
Phantom Thread (Anderson)
Jeannette, l'enfance de Jeanne d'Arc (Jeanette, The Childhood of Joan of Arc; Dumont)
Logan (Mangold)
On Body & Soul (Enyedi)
Makala (Gras)
The nothing factory (Pinho)
I, Tonya (Gillespie)
The Florida Project (Baker)
Call me by your name (Guadagnino)
Logan Lucky (Soderbergh)
Baby Driver (Wright)
The death of Stalin (Iannucci)
Western (Grisebach)
mother! (Aronofsky)
Loveless (Zvyagintsev)
Happy end (Haneke)
Atomic Blonde (Leitch)

***
A ghost story (Lowery)
The Post (Spielberg)
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (McDonagh)
Mudbound (Rees)
The Shape of Water (del Toro)
The third murder (Koreeda)
The Big Sick (Showalter)
It (Muschietti)
Spiderman: Homecoming (Watts)
Okja (Bong)
Split (Shyamalan)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Johnson)

**1/2
Submergence (Wenders)
Thor: Ragnarok (Waititi)
Wonder Woman (Jenkins)
The disaster artist (Franco)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Gunn)
Coco (Unkrich)
Kedi (Torun)
Ghost in the shell (Sanders)
Alien: Covenant (Scott)
Justice League (Snyder)

**
The Dark Tower (Arcel)
Kong: Skull Island (Vogt-Roberts)
Mummy (Kurtzman)
Gaga: Five foot two (Moukarbel)

*
The Great Wall (Zhang)
American Assassin (Cuesta)

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Oscars 2018 Nominations Predix (and actuals): Let the bloodbath begin

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Phantom Thread

As usual, last minute posting! Hopefully this time it's better than the savagery of the Globes predix for me. Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. To the death! (Actual results will be in red).

(Also: I realize I have the same picture up but I'm too lazy and tired to change it now. Edit: I've changed it to the surprise horse, Phantom Thread).

PICTURE
The Big Sick
Call me by your name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project Phantom Thread
Get out
I, Tonya
Lady bird
The post
The shape of water
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

There are a couple of films that could replace what I've selected here, namely Darkest Hour in place of The Big Sick or The Florida Project. I feel like the Academy may lean American, and sight unseen, Darkest Hour sounds dreadful. I'd love for Blade Runner:2049 to get a nomination here. And I may vomit if Wonder Woman gets in, which it very well can given the PGA nomination.

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards P.T. Anderson - Phantom Thread! Wowza.

Alt. Steven Spielberg – The Post

I feel like going with the DGA on this one. On the off chance that people actually saw Phantom Thread, P.T. Anderson could sneak in. But Spielberg's The Post is very rousing and liberal, people may wanna reward him just for making it.

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg - The Post

Alt: Jordan Peele - Get out

ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – The shape of water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie –I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post

Alt. Jessica Chastain – Molly's Game

I think this category is set.

Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post

Alt: Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game

ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name
Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
James Franco – The disaster artist

Alt. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I don't know how much the allegations are going to affect James' chances, considering the timing of the voting closed just a day after the allegations became news. If I had thought that James Franco deserved, as an actor, his place on this list, I would feel sorry that unproven allegations cost him the rightful nom. Having said that, he's not be on my list of noms so I would not shed tears should he get left off.  Denzel could sneak in, not Tom Hanks (he got out-acted by Streep).

Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

Alt: Tom Hanks - The post

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick Lesley Manville!!
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Alt. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

The SAG clip I saw of Hong Chau's performance featured a lot of crying, so I'm putting her in. I dislike the idea of Mary J. Blige getting a nomination for Mudbound, having seen the film. I wonder if people just want to give awards to famous names simply for showing up and not screwing up. It's not even subtly fabulous, like Dafoe. It's a non-event. I also don't understand Octavia Spencer's buzz here. I wish Lesley Manville would snag a surprise one here. This may mean I'm racist after all.

Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

Alt: Hong Chau - Downsizing

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins – The shape of water
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer – All the money in the world

Alt. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call me by your name

Will we have a political vote here for Plummer? Not saying that he doesn't deserve it (I haven't seen the movie), just saying it may have the extra current sauce on. And will Three Billboards pull all three possible noms? I'd say yes based on the support shown for the film so far.

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards

Alt: Christopher Plummer - All the money in the world

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The big sick
Lady Bird
Get out
The shape of water 
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt. I, Tonya

I think the Academy may want to reward the Big Sick here with a nom, but it's a shakey bet. I'm not sure whether I, Tonya (backed by WGA) or The post (backed by current climate good will) would sneak in here. My wish is for Phantom Thread to sneak in.

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Alt: I, Tonya

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
The disaster artist
Molly's game
Logan
Mudbound

Alt. The beguiled

Is The beguiled a wishful alternate? A hundred times yes. I have a hard time believing Logan would get a nom over the tour de force The beguiled, but ... WGA nom!

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Logan

Alt: Wonder

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
The Square
A fantastic woman
In the fade On body and soul!!
Loveless
Foxtrot

Alt. The insult

I've seen On body and soul (short listed) and I'm surprised it's there because it's an odd duck. I'd love for it to be included though!

A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
In the Fade (Germany)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)

Alt: Foxtrot (Israel)

ANIMATED
The breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
The LEGO Batman movie Boss baby

Alt. Mary & the Witch's Flower 

I've only seen Coco, unfortunately, so these are really blind guesses. I can't bear the thoght of "Boss Baby" being an Oscar nominee.

The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Alt: Mary and the Witch's Flower

DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places
Jane
City of ghosts Abacus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Alt. Icarus

Griz is sitting this category out, but I feel obligated so I'm going to do it anyway. Bonus points for me. :p

EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Three billboards
Get out

Alt. I, Tonya

I'm not sure about The shape of water, but if it's a second front runner, it needs this nom.

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Alt: Blade Runner 2049

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Darkest hour
Mudbound

Alt. Call me by your name

I'm just going by what the guild nominated. I don't understand Mudbound cinematography nomination over something like The Beguiled.

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Alt:Three Billboards

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The shape of water
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest hour
Dunkirk
Phantom thread Beauty and the Beast

Alt. The post

PT Anderson loves his set, so I'm hoping its flashiness prevails (though the guild didn't think it was all that, strangely enough).

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Post
The Shape of Water

Alt: Dunkirk

VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Star wars: the last Jedi
The shape of water
War for the planet of the apes
Dunkirk Kong: Skull Island

Alt. Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2

I have nuthin' to say here.

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Alt: Okja

SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The shape of water
Star Wars: the last Jedi
The greatest showman Blade Runner: 2049

Alt. Wonder Woman

Wonder Woman, if it should show up, should probably show up here.

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: The Greatest Showman

SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: the last Jedi
The shape of water

Alt. Wonder Woman

Sound has always been confusing.

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: War for the planet of the apes

MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2 Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

Alt. I, Tonya

Old people make up!

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Alt: Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2

COSTUME
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
The shape of water
Darkest hour
Murder on the orient express

Alt. Victoria and Abdul

How can contemporary work get a nom here?

Beauty and the Beast 
The Greatest Showman 
Murder on the Orient Express 
Phantom Thread 
The Shape of Water

Alt: Darkest hour

SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom thread
The shape of water
The Post Star Wars
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt. Darkest hour


Outside of Dunkirk, I can't remember any of other pictures' score. Though, Phantom Thread's score was very much part of the film so it should be here.

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water

Alt: Victoria and Abdul

SONG
Mudbound – Mighty River
Coco – Remember me
Call me by your name – Vision of Gideons (hopefully) or Mystery of Love (Likely)
The greatest showman – This is me
Beauty and the beast - Ever more

Alt. Marshall - Standing up for something


I totally looked up Marshall.

Beauty and the Beast
Call Me By Your Name
Coco
The Greatest Showman
Mudbound

Alt: Marshall

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Golden Globes 2018 Winners: Oprah was here

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Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
The good:
- Oprah's speech - not a dry eye in the house!
- Look at all the different LBD!
- Natalie Portman's zinger about the all male director slate!

The meh:
- Seth Meyer's opening monologue

The bad:
- My prognostication
- Seth Meyer's jokes delivered with other people

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Huh. They really liked Three Billboards. It just leapfrogged into front runner status? The power of TIFF's People Choice Winner!

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Lady Bird

I did say it was unstoppable. And I was correct, for, like, twice tonight.

BEST DIRECTOR

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water

"I mean, Nolan should win, but the foreign press may want to reward Guillermo for his most accessible film yet."<-- Why didn't I go with this?

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

YES! I don't mind being wrong here (again with the Alts... sigh).

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

Finally.

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

"It's Margot vs. Saoirse time. If Lady Bird is going to win its best picture category, Saoirse will rise. But I feel like Margot Robbie is a much better schmoozer, and she may have already worked her magic with the group. And it's a showier role. This is my risky bet." <-- Why did I change it last minute?

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

James Franco - The Disaster Artist

"This one is too easy." <--- I should give this up.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney- I, Tonya

I'm going to have to do better on the Oscars! Jeebus!


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

I'm happy for him - an actor with so many years in the dog house finally getting his due! It also means Willem Dafoe is not a slam dunk?

BEST SCREENPLAY

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

"Gerwig didn't get a nomination for directing, so this is hers to lose." <--- Holy crap she did lose. But look at all the other people coming to comment on her behalf - Oscars nomination here you go, Gerwig!

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The Greatest Showman

"It's Mary J. Blige." <--- Apparently does not matter to the Globes. The winning song sucks, guys.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Shape of Water

"I think this is a lock (famous last prognostication word)." <--- This.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Coco

Phew, an actual 'sure thing' I got something right.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

In the Fade (Germany)

"The Square has production tips in three major foreign countries. I'm going by the number." <--- Haha I'm the 'Alt.' queen tonight. This has to be a record for failing of some sort. Whoo!

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Golden Globes 2018 Winners Predictions

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The Post
Well I missed the nomination predictions, but in my defense, I was occupied with an even bigger event to my profession (like, the Olympics of my field) so I'm going to give me a pass. I'll get right to this, and I can only hope that the mood is not dampened too much on the show tomorrow. Purple is my friend and long time guest, Griz.

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

The Post
Alt: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water
Alt: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

It's the foreign PRESS, and The Post is very Press. And au courant.

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Lady Bird
Alt: I, Tonya

Lady Bird
Alt: Get out

Lady Bird is kinda unstoppable? I mean, Get out theoretically could get it, but it's a horror and still a rare type to win these things.

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Alt: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Alt: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

I mean, Nolan should win, but the foreign press may want to reward Guillermo for his most accessible film yet.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Alt: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

I like Sally, and she has the best chance here, but Frances was better in her film. Why am I betting against Streep? I have to rethink this before the ceremony tomorrow.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Alt: Timothée Chalamet - Call me by your name

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Alt: Timothée Chalamet - Call me by your name

I haven't seen Gary Oldman's latest performance, but my god I didn't even recognize him in the trailer. That's at least is a lot of make up performance. I'm also picking Gary because I have a hard time believing anyone else would take it (Daniel Day Lewis missed the SAG?), and I don't want Timothée Chalamet to.

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Alt: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Alt: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

It's Margot vs. Saoirse time. If Lady Bird is going to win its best picture category, Saoirse will rise. But I feel like Margot Robbie is a much better schmoozer, and she may have already worked her magic with the group. And it's a showier role. This is my risky bet.

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Alt: James Franco - The Disaster Artist

James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Alt: Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

This one is too easy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Alt: Allison Janney- I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Alt: Allison Janney - I, Tonya

The two mommy dearests are going to duke it out. May the more human one win! This category is diverse yo!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Alt: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Alt: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

I wish for an upset in this category just for the fun of it. Well, mostly for the off chance that Armie Hammer would get up on stage and flash them teeth! But, nah, it's Dafoe's to lose.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Lady Bird
Alt: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt: The Shape of Water

Gerwig didn't get a nomination for directing, so this is hers to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Mudbound
Alt: Coco

Mudbound
Alt: Coco

It's Mary J. Blige.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk
Alt: The Shape of Water

Dunkirk
Alt: The Shape of Water

I think this is a lock (famous last prognostication word).

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Coco
Alt: The Breadwinner

Coco
Alt: The Breadwinner

Having seen Coco, this was a minor Pixar that somehow did really well outside the States. Lucky for it, the rest of the selection looks pretty bad so it's all yours, Coco!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Square (Sweden)
Alt: In the Fade (Germany)

The Square (Sweden)
Alt: First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)

The Square has production tips in three major foreign countries. I'm going by the number.

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