2018 Oscars Winners Prediction and Show: may the best politics win

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Frances McDormand in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I've been feeling like McDormand in this scene here (not the entire film) this past week, so I'm glad for the Oscars to cap the night off. I wonder who'd tune in to the telecast though, with its roster of old-news, indie-crossing films, contrasting with the lingering buzz of new and exciting time at the theatre for one particular movie (Black Panther's sucking the air out of every other film), and a supercharged (read: uncomfortable) time in Hollywood right now. I'm going to try and will this process into a light, entertaining show for myself somehow.

Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. (Actual results will be in red and show comments in blue).

Show comment:
-Beautiful stage production
-The stunt was meaningful, though Gal kinda shot this year's Oscars when she proclaimed watching A Wrinkle of Time was better than being at the Oscars.
-Maya Rudolph and Tiffany Haddish were this year's Amy and Tina
-Too bad the top pictures did not get highlighted. Couldn't they have left out the awkward military tribute?
-Bigger guns from the best picture list that went home empty-handed: Ladybird and The Post. Other than these, the Academy really distributed the wealth.
-This has been my best prediction showing yet! 18/21 correct, 20/21 with alternates. Griz got 15/21 correct, and 19/21 with alternates. I guess this means the Oscars was too predictable - you just have to follow the political line to predict these wins.

Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. The shape of water

Historically, the Oscars tended to go epic rather than small, but the recent cultural climate and the last couple of years really threw the old conventional cobwebs off. Yet, even taking into consideration the backlash to Billboards, I still can't think of a solid reason for any other nominee to win this game.

Three Billboards
Alt. The Shape of Water

Show comment: Hahahahahahaha. I did not read about this, so having Dunaway and Beatty back is hilarious. Oh wait, did they read it correctly??? Wow. Well del Toro checked. I guess the backlash was real.

Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Alt. Jordan Peele – Get out

There's no stopping del Toro, which is too bad because Christopher Nolan deserves this more. The only other person who could pull a surprise at this point is Peele, but Shape of Water's more epic feel will likely win out.

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Alt. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk

Show comment: D'awwwwwwwwww. Finally, the last of the Mexican trio won.

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

There's no denying Frances, who won pretty much everything leading up to the Oscars.

Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Alt. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

Show comment: McDormand's laugh juxtaposed with the spine-chilling request to the room.

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name

I think Gary will get his Oscar, though this could be where things get interesting.

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name

Show comment: Haven't seen the movie but Gary is lovely.

Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

This is the only acting category where a minority could sneak in ... but nah. Allison got this. Oscarssowhite(andMexican) it is.

Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

Show comment: Beautiful dress on Allison.

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Wouldn't it be something if Dafoe wins this? I mean, poor Sam. I like him in a lot of projects, but not Billboards. It is a wonder that his ignoramus character actually manages to get him a nom, and a dominating one at that.

Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Alt. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

Show comment: Love Sam's blend of sweetness and humility in his speech.

Get out
Alt. Lady bird

A hard category to predict - Get out did win WGA, though I think Ladybird is more screen-play flashy in comparison. Which narrative will win out: minority or women? The only reason I'm predicting Get out is because Lady bird has a competition for the women narrative: Three Billboards. Probably split the vote, and Get out rises. This means Lady Bird goes home empty handed, which would be a surprisingly poor show for a critical darling.

Three Billboards
Alt. Get Out

Show comment: Wow Nicole's dress. I'm impressed at my reasoning for this win.

Call me by your name
Alt. Mudbound

Hard to imagine Call me would lose this one, especially with the speech at the end. However, Mudbound could sneak in. Not nearly as much oppression in Call me...

Call Me By Your Name
Alt. Molly's Game

Show comment: "We've all gone through first love, I hope, and come out on the other side intact."

A fantastic woman
Alt. The square

The problem with The Square winning is that it's like shooting fish in a barrel, and it does not give the Academy political brownie points. A fantastic woman would. Let us remember that Toni Erdmann lost to The Salesman last year, probably for the same reason.

The Square (Sweden)
Alt. Loveless (Russia)

Show comment: vindicated!

Alt. The Breadwinner

I can't imagine Coco losing this, simply because the other ones just don't seem to have much support.

Alt. The Breadwinner

Show comment: I want a BB8.

Faces Places x Icarus
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo

Similar to animated, I don't see a lot of support for the other films. At least not on the internet, and we know the internet is everything.

Faces Places
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo

Show comment: apparently, the internet is not everything.

Alt. Baby Driver

Will Dunkirk get a big category consolation prize?

Baby Driver
Alt. Dunkirk

Show comment: Thanking the director's wife, heh. Thank you to the audience, oh Jimmy.

Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk

Get that Oscar, Deakins!

Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk

Show comment: YES!

The shape of water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049

It would be weird for a movie to just win Best Director and nothing else, wouldn't it? For my money, I would give it to Blade Runner.

The Shape of Water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049

Show comment: Woo shout out to Toronto! What are that man's glasses? Lupita's dress: wowza.

War for the planet of the apes
Alt. Blade Runner: 2049

Lots and lots of ape suits.

Blade Runner 2049
Alt. War for the Planet of the Apes

Show comment: Woot!! First win for Blade Runner!

Alt. Baby Driver

Baby Driver had wonderful mix of sound but Dunkirk should win this.

Alt. Baby Driver

Show comment: flight and safe landing, yes, we all need these.

Alt. Baby Driver

Dunkirk is a lot of sound.

Alt. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Show comment: These guys are the chillest.

Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder

I tend to forget the hairstyling part of this category, but that's because quite often the winner is based on make-up. For that, I'm predicting the Alt. would be Wonder. Yes, I'm deliberating the Alts, because Darkest Hour got this in the bag.

Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder

Show comment: Armie & Gal, what a presenter pair. The winner was so sweet. He thanked his cat. :'(

Phantom Thread
Alt. The shape of water

Throw P.T. Anderson a bone here!

Phantom Thread 
Alt. Victoria & Abdul

Show comment: Eva Marie Saint!!! Her opening introduction was funny and touching... what a narrator! That man is going to win the jet ski.

The shape of water
Alt. Dunkirk

Not on the Water train, and would love a Dunkirk surprise here (I'm rooting against myself and for Griz here?).

Alt. The Shape of Water

Show comment: Walken got a standing ovation because ... he was old?

Coco – Remember me
Alt. Call me by your name – Mystery of Love

Eh. It'd be a pleasant surprise if Sufjan Stevens wins.

Alt. The Greatest Showman

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1 Response to 2018 Oscars Winners Prediction and Show: may the best politics win

March 5, 2018 at 8:25 AM

Congratulations on kicking my butt! Almost every category we differed in went your way, hmmph!


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