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| Frances McDormand in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri |
Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. (Actual results will be in red and show comments in blue).
Show comment:
-Beautiful stage production
-The stunt was meaningful, though Gal kinda shot this year's Oscars when she proclaimed watching A Wrinkle of Time was better than being at the Oscars.
-Maya Rudolph and Tiffany Haddish were this year's Amy and Tina
-Too bad the top pictures did not get highlighted. Couldn't they have left out the awkward military tribute?
-Bigger guns from the best picture list that went home empty-handed: Ladybird and The Post. Other than these, the Academy really distributed the wealth.
-This has been my best prediction showing yet! 18/21 correct, 20/21 with alternates. Griz got 15/21 correct, and 19/21 with alternates. I guess this means the Oscars was too predictable - you just have to follow the political line to predict these wins.
PICTURE
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. The shape of water
Historically, the Oscars tended to go epic rather than small, but the recent cultural climate and the last couple of years really threw the old conventional cobwebs off. Yet, even taking into consideration the backlash to Billboards, I still can't think of a solid reason for any other nominee to win this game.
Three Billboards
Alt. The Shape of Water
Show comment: Hahahahahahaha. I did not read about this, so having Dunaway and Beatty back is hilarious. Oh wait, did they read it correctly??? Wow. Well del Toro checked. I guess the backlash was real.
Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Alt. Jordan Peele – Get out
There's no stopping del Toro, which is too bad because Christopher Nolan deserves this more. The only other person who could pull a surprise at this point is Peele, but Shape of Water's more epic feel will likely win out.
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Alt. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Show comment: D'awwwwwwwwww. Finally, the last of the Mexican trio won.
ACTRESS
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
There's no denying Frances, who won pretty much everything leading up to the Oscars.
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Alt. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Show comment: McDormand's laugh juxtaposed with the spine-chilling request to the room.
ACTOR
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name
I think Gary will get his Oscar, though this could be where things get interesting.
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Show comment: Haven't seen the movie but Gary is lovely.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
This is the only acting category where a minority could sneak in ... but nah. Allison got this. Oscarssowhite(andMexican) it is.
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Show comment: Beautiful dress on Allison.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Wouldn't it be something if Dafoe wins this? I mean, poor Sam. I like him in a lot of projects, but not Billboards. It is a wonder that his ignoramus character actually manages to get him a nom, and a dominating one at that.
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Alt. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Show comment: Love Sam's blend of sweetness and humility in his speech.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get out
Alt. Lady bird
A hard category to predict - Get out did win WGA, though I think Ladybird is more screen-play flashy in comparison. Which narrative will win out: minority or women? The only reason I'm predicting Get out is because Lady bird has a competition for the women narrative: Three Billboards. Probably split the vote, and Get out rises. This means Lady Bird goes home empty handed, which would be a surprisingly poor show for a critical darling.
Three Billboards
Alt. Get Out
Show comment: Wow Nicole's dress. I'm impressed at my reasoning for this win.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
Alt. Mudbound
Hard to imagine Call me would lose this one, especially with the speech at the end. However, Mudbound could sneak in. Not nearly as much oppression in Call me...
Call Me By Your Name
Alt. Molly's Game
Show comment: "We've all gone through first love, I hope, and come out on the other side intact."
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
A fantastic woman
Alt. The square
The problem with The Square winning is that it's like shooting fish in a barrel, and it does not give the Academy political brownie points. A fantastic woman would. Let us remember that Toni Erdmann lost to The Salesman last year, probably for the same reason.
The Square (Sweden)
Alt. Loveless (Russia)
Show comment: vindicated!
ANIMATED
Coco
Alt. The Breadwinner
I can't imagine Coco losing this, simply because the other ones just don't seem to have much support.
Coco
Alt. The Breadwinner
Show comment: I want a BB8.
DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places x Icarus
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo
Similar to animated, I don't see a lot of support for the other films. At least not on the internet, and we know the internet is everything.
Faces Places
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo
Show comment: apparently, the internet is not everything.
EDITING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Will Dunkirk get a big category consolation prize?
Baby Driver
Alt. Dunkirk
Show comment: Thanking the director's wife, heh. Thank you to the audience, oh Jimmy.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk
Get that Oscar, Deakins!
Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk
Show comment: YES!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The shape of water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049
It would be weird for a movie to just win Best Director and nothing else, wouldn't it? For my money, I would give it to Blade Runner.
The Shape of Water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049
Show comment: Woo shout out to Toronto! What are that man's glasses? Lupita's dress: wowza.
VISUAL EFFECTS
War for the planet of the apes
Alt. Blade Runner: 2049
Lots and lots of ape suits.
Blade Runner 2049
Alt. War for the Planet of the Apes
Show comment: Woot!! First win for Blade Runner!
SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Baby Driver had wonderful mix of sound but Dunkirk should win this.
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Show comment: flight and safe landing, yes, we all need these.
SOUND EDITING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Dunkirk is a lot of sound.
Dunkirk
Alt. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Show comment: These guys are the chillest.
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder
I tend to forget the hairstyling part of this category, but that's because quite often the winner is based on make-up. For that, I'm predicting the Alt. would be Wonder. Yes, I'm deliberating the Alts, because Darkest Hour got this in the bag.
Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder
Show comment: Armie & Gal, what a presenter pair. The winner was so sweet. He thanked his cat. :'(
COSTUME
Phantom Thread
Alt. The shape of water
Throw P.T. Anderson a bone here!
Phantom Thread
Alt. Victoria & Abdul
Show comment: Eva Marie Saint!!! Her opening introduction was funny and touching... what a narrator! That man is going to win the jet ski.
SCORE
The shape of water
Alt. Dunkirk
Not on the Water train, and would love a Dunkirk surprise here (I'm rooting against myself and for Griz here?).
Dunkirk
Alt. The Shape of Water
Show comment: Walken got a standing ovation because ... he was old?
SONG
Coco – Remember me
Alt. Call me by your name – Mystery of Love
Eh. It'd be a pleasant surprise if Sufjan Stevens wins.
Coco
Alt. The Greatest Showman
1 Response to 2018 Oscars Winners Prediction and Show: may the best politics win
Congratulations on kicking my butt! Almost every category we differed in went your way, hmmph!
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