Oscars nominations 2020 predictions (and actuals): a 1917 parasite is no joker

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Parasite

Oscar is coming for all hand wringers tomorrow! Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. May the best prognosticator win at doing things that don't matter! (Actual results will be in red).

So, a feeeeew thoughts about the announcement and the nominations:
- My god, John Cho's enunciation was ON POINT.
- Having looked at this website this morning, I realized that the background photo is now off, but who has time to make a new photobucket account? Another problem for another person!
- Issa you sneaky little devil
- Who the heck thought it was right to put 1917 in the wrong alphabetical order? If I remember my school lesson correctly, numbers go first, people!
- I must say, I rather enjoyed the fact that in spite of protests, and conscious efforts on behalf of the producers to appeal to the angry mob (Issa Rae AND John Cho?), the Academy just votes whatever it wants to. On the one hand, it is a little masochistic. On the other hand, Kathy Bates.
- I enjoyed Issa calling Scorsese 'Score Ceci.'
- The tepid clappings were just too much. They should've tried laugh tracks.
- Bander-assssssssssss!!!!!
- Elton John would like everyone to know that he wore more make up than all the extras on 1917. Where is his film's Oscar?
- If people want the Academy to be inclusive, first, there would need to be different kinds of pictures getting nominated. I'm not sure why people don't get this about the Academy: it's a populist filmmaking body. It'll nominate well produced films with an accessible, preachable, epic, cinematic feel, for the big prizes anyway. The smaller ones are a weird popularity contest, one that Diane Warren often wins in. WHO KNOWS WHY.
- Listen, in what world would there be a snub for the biggest Disney film, Frozen 2? The Academy does not care for your princesses.
- You know what should have been outraged about this morning? Apollo 11 missing its single righteous nomination in Documentary Feature, and 1917 got nom'ed for Screenplay? Have you seen it? It's basically "Creep. Crawl. Run. Now, sing."
- Actually, people are overlooking the significance of Parasite being nominated for a seriously deep (as in, serious but deep diving) category like Production Design. Parasite is a non-English speaking comedy thriller. The Academy is, like, basically allergic to each of these aspects separately, but altogether like that? Parasite is boss. Also, Asians getting nominated for not flying around chopsockeying people in technicolour extraneous fabric? You crazy. (Bruce Lee excepted, Tarantino).
- Sorry, Farewell.
- I enjoyed the fact that they read out how each branch made the nominations. Other than getting facts about the Oscars, viewers could now redirect their anger at the specific branches and not the all encompassing 'the Oscars.' That worked out well.

My predix, on the other hand, feel like they did not go as well. Let's see... 14 misses and 6 alternates out of 109 noms. Somebody, do math! 87%, or 81.65%, hm. I probably miscounted, or miscalculated, I felt poorer than A-?


PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives out
Little Women
Marriage story
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Parasite

Alt. The Farewell

I can see a scenario where The Farewell gets in instead of Ford v Ferrari or Knives out, because of feelings.

1917 

Ford v Ferrari 
The Irishman 
Jojo Rabbit 
Joker 
Little Women 
Marriage Story 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
Parasite 
The Two Popes

DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
Sam Mendes - 1917
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once upon a time in Hollywood
Greta Gerwig -Little women Todd Phillips - Joker

Alt. Taika Waititi - Jojo Rabbit 

This category may have an upset. It may come in the form of a not-so-little woman, and Taika is the most vulnerable of the set, even though I personally would not take him out (if it was up to me).

Ah crap, Gerwig didn't make it. And now, this is never going to end.

Bong Joon Ho - Parasite 

Sam Mendes - 1917 
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman 
Todd Phillips - Joker 
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
 
Alt.
Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story

ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage story
Saoirse Ronan - Little women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renee Zellwegger - Judy

Alt. Lupita Nyong'o - Us

It's really hard to take Lupita out, but I worry that a horror won't be recognized. On the other hand, Saoirse was already nominated (though she seems to be on a Kate Winslet path, being a perennial nominee). And then there's Awkwafina, who may sneak in - if only she got a SAG!

Cynthia Erivo - Harriet 
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story 
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women 
Charlize Theron - Bombshell 
Renee Zellweger - Judy 

Alt:
Awkwafina - The Farewell 

ACTOR
Antonio Banderas - Pain and glory
Christian Bale - Ford v Ferrari Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes
Leonardo di Caprio - Once upon a time in Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Adam Driver - Marriage story

Alt. Taron Egerton – Rocketman

I am so rooting for Antonio here so I'm taking SAG nominee Taron out, because he's young yet and he can get another nomination another time. Bale is great in Ford v Ferrari and it'd be a shame if he does not make it.

Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory 
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
Adam Driver - Marriage Story 
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker 
Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes 

Alt:
Christian Bale - Ford v Ferrari 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern - Marriage story
Scarlett Johasson - Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell KATHY BATES
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Alt. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

I just can not put down - or bear the reality of - Jennifer Lopez having an Oscar nomination. Zhao Shuzhen could also sneak in, depending on The Farewell's love. <--- ZERO.

Laura Dern - Marriage Story 
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit 
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers 
Florence Pugh - Little Women 
Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Alt: Nicole Kidman - Bombshell


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks - A beautiful day in the neighborhood
Song Kang-ho - Parasite

Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once upon a time in Hollywood

Alt.  Anthony Hopkins  – The two popes

Anthony Hopkins was great in the film so I hope he'd get in. It's really hard taking Foxx, a SAG nominee, out, but he has not been much on the awards circuit much so I'm not sure if there's momentum for him. On the ohter hand, Song Kang Ho may be primed to ride the Parasite coat tail in? <-- Oscar not ready.

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood 
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes 
Al Pacino - The Irishman 
Joe Pesci - The Irishman 
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: Song Kang Ho - Parasite


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Knives out
Marriage story
Parasite
The Farewell 1917?!

Alt. Pain and glory

Parasite is a stand-in for foreign film screenplay here, but I do hope Griz is right that Pain and Glory would get in.<--- dashed.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
Knives Out 
Marriage Story 
Pain and Glory 
Parasite

Alt: The Farewell


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Joker
Little women
The two popes

Alt. A beautiful day in the neighborhood

The two popes could get in based on the fact that the film is very wordy.

The Irishman 
Little Women 
Jojo Rabbit 
Joker 
The Two Popes

Alt: A beautiful day in the neighborhood 


FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Atlantics (Senegal) Corpus Cristi
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
The Painted Bird (Czech) Honeyland

Alt. Those who remained (Hungary) 

Atlantics and Painted Bird are uncertain, but maybe they are familiar enough to get noms. NOPE.

Atlantics (Senegal) 
Les Misérables (France) 
Pain and Glory (Spain) 
Parasite (South Korea) 
Those Who Remained (Hungary)

Alt: Honeyland (North Macedonia)


ANIMATED
Frozen 2
How to train your dragon: the hidden world
I lost my body
Missing link
Toy Story 4

Alt. Klaus

I've seen I lost my body, so I'm not entirely convinced it would be the final 5, but whatever. Frozen 2 is still waiting to be thawed.

Frozen II 
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 
I Lost My Body 
Missing Link 
Toy Story 4

Alt:Klaus


DOCUMENTARY
American factory
Apollo 11 The edge of democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
The cave

Alt. One child nation

Given that one of my favourite films this year is a documentary, I'm throwing my predix hat in. Go Apollo 11!!! *righteous anger*

American Factory 
Apollo 11 
For Sama 
Honeyland '
One Child Nation

Alt. The Cave

EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Parasite

Alt. Jojo Rabbit

The measure of how much Jojo got support would be shown here, as I think it's vulnerable to other pictures that may not get Best Film but were pretty flashy in their editing.

Wow, Once upon a time missed an important category. Guess who's not winning best picture?

Ford v Ferrari 
The Irishman 
Joker 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
Parasite

Alt: 1917


CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once upon a time in Hollywood
The Lighthouse

Alt. The Irishman 

I know I'm taking a heavyweight out of the line up, but I can't recall the Irishman to be that impressive about its cinematography, and the Lighthouse is in black and white? <--- my reasoning for the Lighthouse was tight, but not my grip on the reality of the academy being in love with Score Ceci.

1917 
Ford v Ferrari 
The Irishman 
Joker 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: The Lighthouse


PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Once upon a time in Hollywood

Alt. Parasite

Period piece, period piece, and Parasite.

Joker's absence here is, for once, the right call.

1917 
The Irishman 
Jojo Rabbit 
Joker 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Alt: Ford v Ferrari


VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: endgame
The Lion King
Star Wars: the rise of Skywalker

Alt. The Irishman

De-aging! It looks terrible to me, actually, so I dunno.

1917 
Avengers: Endgame 
The Irishman 
The Lion King 
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Alt:  Alita: Battle Angel


SOUND MIXING
1917
Avengers: endgame Joker
Ford v Ferrari
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Rocketman Ad Astra

Alt. Star Wars: the Rise of Skywalker

Just choose the ones with lots of sound.

Can you imagine being the sound people on Ad Astra? 'We would like to thank Brad Pitt for breathing so good.'

1917 
Avengers: Endgame 
Ford v Ferrari 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Alt: Joker


SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Star Wars: the rise of Skywalker

Alt. Jojo Rabbit 

Us?

1917 
Avengers: Endgame 
Ford v Ferrari 
Joker 
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Alt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood


MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of evil
Rocketman 1917

Alt. Once upon a time in Hollywood 

Typically, this is a 'old people make up' category, but since this year is more like a de-aging year, we have other types of make up / styling here.

Bombshell 
Joker 
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
Rocketman

Alt: 1917


COSTUME
Dolemite is my name Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little women
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Rocketman The Irishman

Alt. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Period and fantasy category, and Elton John. Interesting call on Griz's part for Downtown Abbey. It may be too TV?

The Academy missed an opportunity to earn some small internet points for no cost by nominating Dolemite in this category.

Dolemite Is My Name 
Downton Abbey 
Little Women 
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 
Rocketman

Alt: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil


SCORE
1917
Joker
Star Wars: the rise of Skywalker
Little women
Marriage story

Alt. Jojo Rabbit


1917 is the only one that makes sense for me in this category, as it plays quite a big role in the film. Not sure why Star Wars is here for original score, but what do I know about telling the Star Wars theme apart?

1917 
Joker 
Little Women 
Marriage Story 
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Alt: Motherless Brooklyn


SONG
Frozen II
The Lion King Breakthrough
Rocketman
Toy Story 4
Motherless Brooklyn Harriet

Alt. Wild rose

May the most random song sneak in.

I should have known that Diane Warren was in the mix.

Frozen II 
Harriet 
The Lion King 
Rocketman 
Toy Story 4

Alt: Aladdin

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