Oscars 2024: Year of upsets, maybe? And winners!

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I'm banking on some upsets this year, given how wide open some of the categories are. That'd be good! A little excitement for a dying show that outside of people like me and Griz (in purple), noone cares because WHO GOES TO THE MOVIES?? Winners in red.

BEST PICTURE
Oppenheimer
Alt: The Zone of Interest
 
Oppenheimer
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall 
 
Years from now, without the context of running with Barbie to make him popular that one summer, noone's gonna understand how Oppenheimer went on a tear and won everything.
 
DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Alt: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest 
 
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things 
 
ACTRESS 
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon 
Alt: Emma Stone - Poor Things 
 
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon 
Alt: Emma Stone - Poor Things
 
Is it an upset if we're all predicting it? 
 
ACTOR 
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
 
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers 
 
Having seen The Holdovers, I can't believe it is a favourite for an upset in this category. Or any category outside of supporting actress. I guess I still don't like Alexander Payne's work?
 
SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers 
Alt: American Ferrera - Barbie
 
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers 
Alt: Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple 
 
SUPPORTING ACTOR 
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
 
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer 
Alt: Ryan Gosling - Barbie
 
Charles Melton wuz ROBBED.
 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 
Anatomy of a Fall
Alt: The Holdovers
 
The Holdovers 
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall
 
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
Poor Things
Alt: The Zone of Interest
 
American Fiction 
Alt: Oppenheimer 

It's not going to be Oppenheimer - not its strength. I was going to say Zone of Interest, because it looks serious, but this is Poor Things' best chance outside of Actress and Production. This is a very stacked category though, and anyone could walk away with it, including Barbie (to make up for the lack of a director nom for Greta?).
 
EDITING 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall 
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Anatomy of a Fall
 
CINEMATOGRAPHY 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Killers of The Flower Moon
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Poor Things
 
PRODUCTION DESIGN 
Poor Things 
Alt: Barbie 
 
Poor Things 
Alt: Barbie
 
COSTUME DESIGN 
Barbie 
Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon
 
Barbie 
Alt: Poor Things
 
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 
Maestro 
Alt: Poor Things 
 
Maestro 
Alt: Poor Things
 
It's the darn nose.
 
SOUND 
The Zone of Interest
Alt: Oppenheimer
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: The Zone of Interest
 
VISUAL EFFECTS 
The Creator 
Alt: Godzilla Minus One 
 
The Creator 
Alt: Godzilla Minus One 

Gozilla probably had better effects, but The Creator is more of an Oscars-flavour movie. You never know though, it could upset!
 
ORIGINAL SCORE 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon 
 
Oppenheimer 
Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon
 
ORIGINAL SONG 
"What Was I Made For?" - Barbie 
Alt: "I'm Just Ken" - Barbie 
 
"What Was I Made For?" - Barbie 
Alt: "I'm Just Ken" - Barbie
 
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM 
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 
Alt: Society of the Snow (Spain) 
 
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 
Alt: Society of the Snow (Spain)
 
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM 
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 
Alt: The Boy and the Heron 
 
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 
Alt: The Boy and the Heron
 
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 
20 Days in Mariupol 
Alt: To Kill A Tiger
 
20 Days in Mariupol 
Alt: Bobi Wine: The People's President


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