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| Parasite |
So, a feeeeew thoughts about the announcement and the nominations:
- My god, John Cho's enunciation was ON POINT.
- Having looked at this website this morning, I realized that the background photo is now off, but who has time to make a new photobucket account? Another problem for another person!
- Issa you sneaky little devil
- Who the heck thought it was right to put 1917 in the wrong alphabetical order? If I remember my school lesson correctly, numbers go first, people!
- I must say, I rather enjoyed the fact that in spite of protests, and conscious efforts on behalf of the producers to appeal to the angry mob (Issa Rae AND John Cho?), the Academy just votes whatever it wants to. On the one hand, it is a little masochistic. On the other hand, Kathy Bates.
- I enjoyed Issa calling Scorsese 'Score Ceci.'
- The tepid clappings were just too much. They should've tried laugh tracks.
- Bander-assssssssssss!!!!!
- Elton John would like everyone to know that he wore more make up than all the extras on 1917. Where is his film's Oscar?
- If people want the Academy to be inclusive, first, there would need to be different kinds of pictures getting nominated. I'm not sure why people don't get this about the Academy: it's a populist filmmaking body. It'll nominate well produced films with an accessible, preachable, epic, cinematic feel, for the big prizes anyway. The smaller ones are a weird popularity contest, one that Diane Warren often wins in. WHO KNOWS WHY.
- Listen, in what world would there be a snub for the biggest Disney film, Frozen 2? The Academy does not care for your princesses.
- You know what should have been outraged about this morning? Apollo 11 missing its single righteous nomination in Documentary Feature, and 1917 got nom'ed for Screenplay? Have you seen it? It's basically "Creep. Crawl. Run. Now, sing."
- Actually, people are overlooking the significance of Parasite being nominated for a seriously deep (as in, serious but deep diving) category like Production Design. Parasite is a non-English speaking comedy thriller. The Academy is, like, basically allergic to each of these aspects separately, but altogether like that? Parasite is boss. Also, Asians getting nominated for not flying around chopsockeying people in technicolour extraneous fabric? You crazy. (Bruce Lee excepted, Tarantino).
- Sorry, Farewell.
- I enjoyed the fact that they read out how each branch made the nominations. Other than getting facts about the Oscars, viewers could now redirect their anger at the specific branches and not the all encompassing 'the Oscars.' That worked out well.
My predix, on the other hand, feel like they did not go as well. Let's see... 14 misses and 6 alternates out of 109 noms. Somebody, do math! 87%, or 81.65%, hm. I probably miscounted, or miscalculated, I felt poorer than A-?
PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage story
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Parasite
Alt. The Farewell
I can see a scenario where The Farewell gets in instead of Ford v Ferrari or Knives out, because of feelings.
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Two Popes
DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
Sam Mendes - 1917
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once upon a time in Hollywood
Alt. Taika Waititi - Jojo Rabbit
This category may have an upset. It may come in the form of a not-so-little woman, and Taika is the most vulnerable of the set, even though I personally would not take him out (if it was up to me).
Ah crap, Gerwig didn't make it. And now, this is never going to end.
Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Sam Mendes - 1917
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Todd Phillips - Joker
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alt. Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story
ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage story
Saoirse Ronan - Little women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renee Zellwegger - Judy
Alt. Lupita Nyong'o - Us
It's really hard to take Lupita out, but I worry that a horror won't be recognized. On the other hand, Saoirse was already nominated (though she seems to be on a Kate Winslet path, being a perennial nominee). And then there's Awkwafina, who may sneak in - if only she got a SAG!
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renee Zellweger - Judy
Alt: Awkwafina - The Farewell
ACTOR
Antonio Banderas - Pain and glory
Leonardo di Caprio - Once upon a time in Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Adam Driver - Marriage story
Alt. Taron Egerton – Rocketman
I am so rooting for Antonio here so I'm taking SAG nominee Taron out, because he's young yet and he can get another nomination another time. Bale is great in Ford v Ferrari and it'd be a shame if he does not make it.
Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes
Alt: Christian Bale - Ford v Ferrari
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern - Marriage story
Scarlett Johasson - Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Alt. Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
I just can not put down - or bear the reality of - Jennifer Lopez having an Oscar nomination. Zhao Shuzhen could also sneak in, depending on The Farewell's love. <--- ZERO.
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Alt: Nicole Kidman - Bombshell
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks - A beautiful day in the neighborhood
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once upon a time in Hollywood
Alt. Anthony Hopkins – The two popes
Anthony Hopkins was great in the film so I hope he'd get in. It's really hard taking Foxx, a SAG nominee, out, but he has not been much on the awards circuit much so I'm not sure if there's momentum for him. On the ohter hand, Song Kang Ho may be primed to ride the Parasite coat tail in? <-- Oscar not ready.
Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alt: Song Kang Ho - Parasite
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Knives out
Marriage story
Parasite
Alt. Pain and glory
Parasite is a stand-in for foreign film screenplay here, but I do hope Griz is right that Pain and Glory would get in.<--- dashed.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Alt: The Farewell
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Joker
Little women
The two popes
Alt. A beautiful day in the neighborhood
The two popes could get in based on the fact that the film is very wordy.
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
Alt: A beautiful day in the neighborhood
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Alt. Those who remained (Hungary)
Atlantics and Painted Bird are uncertain, but maybe they are familiar enough to get noms. NOPE.
Atlantics (Senegal)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Alt: Honeyland (North Macedonia)
ANIMATED
How to train your dragon: the hidden world
I lost my body
Missing link
Toy Story 4
Alt. Klaus
I've seen I lost my body, so I'm not entirely convinced it would be the final 5, but whatever. Frozen 2 is still waiting to be thawed.
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Alt:Klaus
DOCUMENTARY
American factory
For Sama
Honeyland
The cave
Alt. One child nation
Given that one of my favourite films this year is a documentary, I'm throwing my predix hat in. Go Apollo 11!!! *righteous anger*
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland '
One Child Nation
Alt. The Cave
EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Parasite
Alt. Jojo Rabbit
The measure of how much Jojo got support would be shown here, as I think it's vulnerable to other pictures that may not get Best Film but were pretty flashy in their editing.
Wow, Once upon a time missed an important category. Guess who's not winning best picture?
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Alt: 1917
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Joker
Once upon a time in Hollywood
The Lighthouse
Alt. The Irishman
I know I'm taking a heavyweight out of the line up, but I can't recall the Irishman to be that impressive about its cinematography, and the Lighthouse is in black and white? <--- my reasoning for the Lighthouse was tight, but not my grip on the reality of the academy being in love with Score Ceci.
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alt: The Lighthouse
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Alt. Parasite
Period piece, period piece, and Parasite.
Joker's absence here is, for once, the right call.
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Alt: Ford v Ferrari
VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Avengers: endgame
The Lion King
Star Wars: the rise of Skywalker
Alt. The Irishman
De-aging! It looks terrible to me, actually, so I dunno.
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alt: Alita: Battle Angel
SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Alt. Star Wars: the Rise of Skywalker
Just choose the ones with lots of sound.
Can you imagine being the sound people on Ad Astra? 'We would like to thank Brad Pitt for breathing so good.'
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alt: Joker
SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Star Wars: the rise of Skywalker
Alt. Jojo Rabbit
Us?
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of evil
Alt. Once upon a time in Hollywood
Typically, this is a 'old people make up' category, but since this year is more like a de-aging year, we have other types of make up / styling here.
Bombshell
Joker
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Alt: 1917
COSTUME
Jojo Rabbit
Little women
Once upon a time in Hollywood
Alt. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Period and fantasy category, and Elton John. Interesting call on Griz's part for Downtown Abbey. It may be too TV?
The Academy missed an opportunity to earn some small internet points for no cost by nominating Dolemite in this category.
Dolemite Is My Name
Downton Abbey
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Alt: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
SCORE
1917
Joker
Star Wars: the rise of Skywalker
Little women
Marriage story
Alt. Jojo Rabbit
1917 is the only one that makes sense for me in this category, as it plays quite a big role in the film. Not sure why Star Wars is here for original score, but what do I know about telling the Star Wars theme apart?
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alt: Motherless Brooklyn
SONG
Frozen II
Rocketman
Toy Story 4
Alt. Wild rose
May the most random song sneak in.
I should have known that Diane Warren was in the mix.
Frozen II
Harriet
The Lion King
Rocketman
Toy Story 4
Alt: Aladdin
2 Response to Oscars nominations 2020 predictions (and actuals): a 1917 parasite is no joker
I tallied things up! We did pretty well, feels like it was an easier year to predict than usual?
Anyway, you had 89 correct plus 6 alternates, and I got 90 correct plus 7 alternates! Close! We both aced a whole bunch of categories, which isn't usually the case, I think? My worst category was costumes, with just 2 correct (I guess Downton was "too TV"). You had several with 3 correct, which was the worst you did in any category.
Joker had 11 noms, and THREE other films had 10 nominations. Definitely not a spreading the wealth kind of year, huh?
Thank you for tallying! It just seemed like I did a whole lot worse, probably because of the number of categories where I FAILED.
I really don't think Joker would win best pic though. 1917 has a really good chance. Or maybe Parasite would overcome the non-English film barrier and win the whole deal. It's wide open!
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