Oscars 2018 Nominations Predix (and actuals): Let the bloodbath begin

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Phantom Thread

As usual, last minute posting! Hopefully this time it's better than the savagery of the Globes predix for me. Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. To the death! (Actual results will be in red).

(Also: I realize I have the same picture up but I'm too lazy and tired to change it now. Edit: I've changed it to the surprise horse, Phantom Thread).

PICTURE
The Big Sick
Call me by your name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project Phantom Thread
Get out
I, Tonya
Lady bird
The post
The shape of water
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

There are a couple of films that could replace what I've selected here, namely Darkest Hour in place of The Big Sick or The Florida Project. I feel like the Academy may lean American, and sight unseen, Darkest Hour sounds dreadful. I'd love for Blade Runner:2049 to get a nomination here. And I may vomit if Wonder Woman gets in, which it very well can given the PGA nomination.

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards P.T. Anderson - Phantom Thread! Wowza.

Alt. Steven Spielberg – The Post

I feel like going with the DGA on this one. On the off chance that people actually saw Phantom Thread, P.T. Anderson could sneak in. But Spielberg's The Post is very rousing and liberal, people may wanna reward him just for making it.

Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg - The Post

Alt: Jordan Peele - Get out

ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – The shape of water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie –I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post

Alt. Jessica Chastain – Molly's Game

I think this category is set.

Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post

Alt: Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game

ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name
Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
James Franco – The disaster artist

Alt. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I don't know how much the allegations are going to affect James' chances, considering the timing of the voting closed just a day after the allegations became news. If I had thought that James Franco deserved, as an actor, his place on this list, I would feel sorry that unproven allegations cost him the rightful nom. Having said that, he's not be on my list of noms so I would not shed tears should he get left off.  Denzel could sneak in, not Tom Hanks (he got out-acted by Streep).

Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

Alt: Tom Hanks - The post

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick Lesley Manville!!
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Alt. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

The SAG clip I saw of Hong Chau's performance featured a lot of crying, so I'm putting her in. I dislike the idea of Mary J. Blige getting a nomination for Mudbound, having seen the film. I wonder if people just want to give awards to famous names simply for showing up and not screwing up. It's not even subtly fabulous, like Dafoe. It's a non-event. I also don't understand Octavia Spencer's buzz here. I wish Lesley Manville would snag a surprise one here. This may mean I'm racist after all.

Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

Alt: Hong Chau - Downsizing

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins – The shape of water
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer – All the money in the world

Alt. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call me by your name

Will we have a political vote here for Plummer? Not saying that he doesn't deserve it (I haven't seen the movie), just saying it may have the extra current sauce on. And will Three Billboards pull all three possible noms? I'd say yes based on the support shown for the film so far.

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards

Alt: Christopher Plummer - All the money in the world

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The big sick
Lady Bird
Get out
The shape of water 
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt. I, Tonya

I think the Academy may want to reward the Big Sick here with a nom, but it's a shakey bet. I'm not sure whether I, Tonya (backed by WGA) or The post (backed by current climate good will) would sneak in here. My wish is for Phantom Thread to sneak in.

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Alt: I, Tonya

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
The disaster artist
Molly's game
Logan
Mudbound

Alt. The beguiled

Is The beguiled a wishful alternate? A hundred times yes. I have a hard time believing Logan would get a nom over the tour de force The beguiled, but ... WGA nom!

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Logan

Alt: Wonder

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
The Square
A fantastic woman
In the fade On body and soul!!
Loveless
Foxtrot

Alt. The insult

I've seen On body and soul (short listed) and I'm surprised it's there because it's an odd duck. I'd love for it to be included though!

A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
In the Fade (Germany)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)

Alt: Foxtrot (Israel)

ANIMATED
The breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
The LEGO Batman movie Boss baby

Alt. Mary & the Witch's Flower 

I've only seen Coco, unfortunately, so these are really blind guesses. I can't bear the thoght of "Boss Baby" being an Oscar nominee.

The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Alt: Mary and the Witch's Flower

DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places
Jane
City of ghosts Abacus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Alt. Icarus

Griz is sitting this category out, but I feel obligated so I'm going to do it anyway. Bonus points for me. :p

EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Three billboards
Get out

Alt. I, Tonya

I'm not sure about The shape of water, but if it's a second front runner, it needs this nom.

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Alt: Blade Runner 2049

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Darkest hour
Mudbound

Alt. Call me by your name

I'm just going by what the guild nominated. I don't understand Mudbound cinematography nomination over something like The Beguiled.

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Alt:Three Billboards

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The shape of water
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest hour
Dunkirk
Phantom thread Beauty and the Beast

Alt. The post

PT Anderson loves his set, so I'm hoping its flashiness prevails (though the guild didn't think it was all that, strangely enough).

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Post
The Shape of Water

Alt: Dunkirk

VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Star wars: the last Jedi
The shape of water
War for the planet of the apes
Dunkirk Kong: Skull Island

Alt. Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2

I have nuthin' to say here.

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Alt: Okja

SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The shape of water
Star Wars: the last Jedi
The greatest showman Blade Runner: 2049

Alt. Wonder Woman

Wonder Woman, if it should show up, should probably show up here.

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: The Greatest Showman

SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: the last Jedi
The shape of water

Alt. Wonder Woman

Sound has always been confusing.

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: War for the planet of the apes

MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2 Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

Alt. I, Tonya

Old people make up!

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Alt: Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2

COSTUME
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
The shape of water
Darkest hour
Murder on the orient express

Alt. Victoria and Abdul

How can contemporary work get a nom here?

Beauty and the Beast 
The Greatest Showman 
Murder on the Orient Express 
Phantom Thread 
The Shape of Water

Alt: Darkest hour

SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom thread
The shape of water
The Post Star Wars
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alt. Darkest hour


Outside of Dunkirk, I can't remember any of other pictures' score. Though, Phantom Thread's score was very much part of the film so it should be here.

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water

Alt: Victoria and Abdul

SONG
Mudbound – Mighty River
Coco – Remember me
Call me by your name – Vision of Gideons (hopefully) or Mystery of Love (Likely)
The greatest showman – This is me
Beauty and the beast - Ever more

Alt. Marshall - Standing up for something


I totally looked up Marshall.

Beauty and the Beast
Call Me By Your Name
Coco
The Greatest Showman
Mudbound

Alt: Marshall



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2 Response to Oscars 2018 Nominations Predix (and actuals): Let the bloodbath begin

Grizzly
January 23, 2018 at 10:09 AM

The results are in! You got 84 plus 7 and I got 84 plus 5 alts! A close shave!

I think we did pretty well on the whole, a lot of aced categories. Definitely not one of the tougher years to predict, certainly not one of the more surprising ones except for PTA and his Phantom Thread overperforming! Still, it didn't feel like there were any particularly cruel snubs either (The Post's omission is puzzling though).

January 28, 2018 at 11:31 PM

I saw The Post, and I could see why it missed out; perhaps a little too 'let's round up the troop' from Spielberg?

I'm pretty proud of the ones we aced on - let it be known time and brain cells were spent on this FOR NO REWARD BUT SELF SATISFACTION. Imma have dis.

 

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