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| Phantom Thread |
As usual, last minute posting! Hopefully this time it's better than the savagery of the Globes predix for me. Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. To the death! (Actual results will be in red).
(Also: I realize I have the same picture up but I'm too lazy and tired to change it now. Edit: I've changed it to the surprise horse, Phantom Thread).
PICTURE
The Big Sick
Call me by your name
Dunkirk
Get out
Lady bird
The post
The shape of water
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are a couple of films that could replace what I've selected here, namely Darkest Hour in place of The Big Sick or The Florida Project. I feel like the Academy may lean American, and sight unseen, Darkest Hour sounds dreadful. I'd love for Blade Runner:2049 to get a nomination here. And I may vomit if Wonder Woman gets in, which it very well can given the PGA nomination.
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get out
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Alt. Steven Spielberg – The Post
I feel like going with the DGA on this one. On the off chance that people actually saw Phantom Thread, P.T. Anderson could sneak in. But Spielberg's The Post is very rousing and liberal, people may wanna reward him just for making it.
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg - The Post
Alt: Jordan Peele - Get out
ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – The shape of water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie –I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post
Alt. Jessica Chastain – Molly's Game
I think this category is set.
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
Alt: Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game
ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name
Daniel Day Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Alt. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I don't know how much the allegations are going to affect James' chances, considering the timing of the voting closed just a day after the allegations became news. If I had thought that James Franco deserved, as an actor, his place on this list, I would feel sorry that unproven allegations cost him the rightful nom. Having said that, he's not be on my list of noms so I would not shed tears should he get left off. Denzel could sneak in, not Tom Hanks (he got out-acted by Streep).
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Alt: Tom Hanks - The post
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Alt. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
The SAG clip I saw of Hong Chau's performance featured a lot of crying, so I'm putting her in. I dislike the idea of Mary J. Blige getting a nomination for Mudbound, having seen the film. I wonder if people just want to give awards to famous names simply for showing up and not screwing up. It's not even subtly fabulous, like Dafoe. It's a non-event. I also don't understand Octavia Spencer's buzz here. I wish Lesley Manville would snag a surprise one here. This may mean I'm racist after all.
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Alt: Hong Chau - Downsizing
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins – The shape of water
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer – All the money in the world
Alt. Michael Stuhlbarg – Call me by your name
Will we have a political vote here for Plummer? Not saying that he doesn't deserve it (I haven't seen the movie), just saying it may have the extra current sauce on. And will Three Billboards pull all three possible noms? I'd say yes based on the support shown for the film so far.
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Alt: Christopher Plummer - All the money in the world
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The big sick
Lady Bird
Get out
The shape of water
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. I, Tonya
I think the Academy may want to reward the Big Sick here with a nom, but it's a shakey bet. I'm not sure whether I, Tonya (backed by WGA) or The post (backed by current climate good will) would sneak in here. My wish is for Phantom Thread to sneak in.
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Alt: I, Tonya
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
The disaster artist
Molly's game
Logan
Mudbound
Alt. The beguiled
Is The beguiled a wishful alternate? A hundred times yes. I have a hard time believing Logan would get a nom over the tour de force The beguiled, but ... WGA nom!
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Logan
Alt: Wonder
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
The Square
A fantastic woman
Loveless
Alt. The insult
I've seen On body and soul (short listed) and I'm surprised it's there because it's an odd duck. I'd love for it to be included though!
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
In the Fade (Germany)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)
Alt: Foxtrot (Israel)
ANIMATED
The breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Alt. Mary & the Witch's Flower
I've only seen Coco, unfortunately, so these are really blind guesses. I can't bear the thoght of "Boss Baby" being an Oscar nominee.
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent
Alt: Mary and the Witch's Flower
DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Alt. Icarus
Griz is sitting this category out, but I feel obligated so I'm going to do it anyway. Bonus points for me. :p
EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Three billboards
Alt. I, Tonya
I'm not sure about The shape of water, but if it's a second front runner, it needs this nom.
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Alt: Blade Runner 2049
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The shape of water
Darkest hour
Mudbound
Alt. Call me by your name
I'm just going by what the guild nominated. I don't understand Mudbound cinematography nomination over something like The Beguiled.
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Alt:Three Billboards
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The shape of water
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest hour
Dunkirk
Alt. The post
PT Anderson loves his set, so I'm hoping its flashiness prevails (though the guild didn't think it was all that, strangely enough).
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Post
The Shape of Water
Alt: Dunkirk
VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Star wars: the last Jedi
War for the planet of the apes
Alt. Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2
I have nuthin' to say here.
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Alt: Okja
SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The shape of water
Star Wars: the last Jedi
Alt. Wonder Woman
Wonder Woman, if it should show up, should probably show up here.
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Alt: The Greatest Showman
SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: the last Jedi
The shape of water
Alt. Wonder Woman
Sound has always been confusing.
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Alt: War for the planet of the apes
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Wonder
Alt. I, Tonya
Old people make up!
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
Alt: Guardians of the galaxy Vol. 2
COSTUME
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
The shape of water
Darkest hour
Alt. Victoria and Abdul
How can contemporary work get a nom here?
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Alt: Darkest hour
SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom thread
The shape of water
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Darkest hour
Outside of Dunkirk, I can't remember any of other pictures' score. Though, Phantom Thread's score was very much part of the film so it should be here.
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Alt: Victoria and Abdul
SONG
Mudbound – Mighty River
Coco – Remember me
Call me by your name – Vision of Gideons (hopefully) or Mystery of Love (Likely)
The greatest showman – This is me
Alt. Marshall - Standing up for something
I totally looked up Marshall.
Beauty and the Beast
Call Me By Your Name
Coco
The Greatest Showman
Mudbound
Alt: Marshall
2 Response to Oscars 2018 Nominations Predix (and actuals): Let the bloodbath begin
The results are in! You got 84 plus 7 and I got 84 plus 5 alts! A close shave!
I think we did pretty well on the whole, a lot of aced categories. Definitely not one of the tougher years to predict, certainly not one of the more surprising ones except for PTA and his Phantom Thread overperforming! Still, it didn't feel like there were any particularly cruel snubs either (The Post's omission is puzzling though).
I saw The Post, and I could see why it missed out; perhaps a little too 'let's round up the troop' from Spielberg?
I'm pretty proud of the ones we aced on - let it be known time and brain cells were spent on this FOR NO REWARD BUT SELF SATISFACTION. Imma have dis.
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