The following prediction depends on one version of the night, the one in which Green Book's controversies catch up to it and it loses all that it's up for. The film should have had this in the bag, but we're in a different time, and this version is going to mark this change in the sand. The other version brings us back to more a more aw-shucks Oscars year, so brace yourself for a very bad time if it wins. It'll be better for everyone if it loses, including for the film itself. I would really hate to read anything follow up on that alternate universe version of the night. My friend Griz's predictions in
purple.
PICTURE
Roma
Alt. BlacKkKlansman
Once upon a time, The Favourite had a chance. That was before people got to the bunny ending. Sadly, the mass is not ready for that, and most importantly, neither is the Academy. Admired and respected, yes. Awarded best pic? What's that Spike Lee film?
Green Book
Alt. Roma
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron
Alt. Spike Lee
It's possible for Spike to strike here, depending on how American leaning the Academy is going to go. I wouldn't be too surprised, as Cuaron already got an Oscar recently.
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Alt. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
ACTRESS
Glenn Close - The Wife
Alt. Olivia Colman
So sad that Glenn Close is going to win this for being due and Olivia is going to lose it for not being due (and actually being amazing and memorable in a great role). Nonetheless, I'm glad Olivia had her time in the sun before tomorrow. What a gal.
Glenn Close - The Wife
Alt. Olivia Colman - The Favourite
ACTOR
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. Christian Bale
I guess it's a forgone conclusion. Rami is a sweet guy, but who would've thunk he'd be where he's at today, a shoo-in for best actor?
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. Christian Bale - Vice
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Win
Alt. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
A hard category to favour, but I'm going to give it to King for a beautiful motherly portrayal.
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Alt. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Alt. Richard E. Grant - Can you ever forgive me?
I can't believe Ali is about to have two statues. He's got some very productive roles in the past few years huh?
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Alt. Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
Alt. Green Book
The Favourite should win this, and it would be bad for Green Book to win here. But obviously without a win here, the film would be less likely to win Best Picture with just one other win (Ali)? I guess it means if you're going to ride Green Book, you're going to ignore the favourite here (haha pun).
Green Book
Alt. The Favourite
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman
Alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A place to award Spike Lee if they don't give him Director.
BlacKkKlansman
Alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Roma (Mexico)
Alt. Cold War (Poland)
It'd be weird if anything else wins this category but Roma.
Roma (Mexico)
Alt. Cold War (Poland)
ANIMATED
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alt. The Incredibles 2
There's no other way.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alt. Incredibles 2
DOCUMENTARY
Free Solo
Alt. Minding the gap
The incredible shots from Free Solo should help it win this field.
Free Solo
Alt. RBG
EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. Vice
I know Vice is all like, I'M HERE, but I loathe to put it down for anything. Which probably means it'll win. Hm.
Vice
Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roma
Alt. Cold War
Battle of the black and white foreign films, from foreign land, where they still like black and white.
Roma
Alt. Cold War
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Favourite
Alt. Black Panther
There's a huge American threat in this line up.
The Favourite
Alt. Mary Poppins Returns
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Alt. First Man
Although I do quite like the Avengers' effects, they don't need this! If there's an Oscars god, please let First Man win everything it's up for. *prays*
First Man
Alt. Avengers: Infinity War
SOUND MIXING
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. A Star is Born
Battle of the musicals - I'm giving the edge to Bohemian simply because it seems to have more support, sight unseen.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. A Star Is Born
SOUND EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. First Man
This is surprisingly the most fierce battle for the win - A quiet place is not that far behind.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. First Man
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Border
Alt. Mary Queen of Scots
How did The Favourite not get in?
Vice
Alt. Border
COSTUME
The Favourite
Alt. Black Panther
Panther is a real threat here, and it would be a travesty if it should pull an upset at the expense of the deserving Favourite.
The Favourite
Alt. Black Panther
SCORE
Black Panther
Alt. If Beale Street Could Talk
I don't care, they did not nominate First Man. This category is dead to me. Awards-race wise, this would be the one category they could award Beale Street with.
Black Panther
Alt. Mary Poppins Returns
SONG
A star is born
Alt. Black Panther
I'd love for a surprise Black Panther win here. Just for this one though. Please.
A Star Is Born
Alt. Black Panther
Read More...
Summary only...
 |
| Green Book |
Ahhh Oscars is nigh! So many problems, so little time! Added my friend Griz's predictions in
purple. May the best prognosticator win at life and everything. (Actual results will be in
red).
PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man x
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk x
Roma
A star is born
Vice
Alt. Cold War
I'm predicting Black Panther because everyone else is, not because of its worth or that I think the Academy would typically go for it. It's because I want to fit in. And also because I don't want to be foolish in not accounting for this very politicized period of time in Hollywood. Of this field, my horses are First Man, The Favourite, and Roma. First Man is most in danger of missing, which is a shame. If that's the case, I hope Cold War sneaks in! As a side note, I hope Green Book gets loads of nominations, because the 'backlash' against this film is so manufactured and silly and frankly counterproductive.
SO ... this category is a major disappointment in that First Man missed AND it's a short one! Really, Academy?
Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born x Adam McKay - Vice
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Peter Farrelly - Green Book x
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Alt. Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
This category may have an upset. Come on, Pawel! The most deserving person who'd not be nominated is Damien Chazelle. That's okay, he's already got an Oscars, and he'll be good for a long time. That's what I tell my sheep when I go to sleep at night.
Woot! Pawel! Sorry Damien. :(
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Peter Farrelly - Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
Alt. Adam McKay – Vice
ACTRESS
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns x Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Viola Davis - Widows x
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alt. Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
I just don't want to live in a world where Lady Gaga gets a nom for a remake and an uneven performance at best (in some parts she was down right terrible!). But then again, there's Trump as a POTUS in this world, so, I should reconsider my priorities. Go kick her off, Viola! You know what would be good, too? Joanna Kulig! I suppose Yalitza could pick up a nomination, but ... is Hollywood THAT self-corrective?
Wow Ya ... litza! (Sorry) I guess Hollywood is THAT self-corrective.
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alt: Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
ACTOR
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed x Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Alt. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman
Ethan Hawke surprisingly did not make SAG. I say surprising, because it's a showy performance, not because I know anything about SAG's love for him. I'm putting him in because I find it hard to believe people are voting for Washington's performance in that film. But there are other unbelievable things in the world. Like, salt lake in the ocean. More importantly, would the optics look bad if in a film called BlacKkKlansman, the actor to get nominated is white (see below)?
It's neither! I haven't seen Dafoe's performance but I'm sure it's classic Dafoe?
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Alt: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man x Marina de Tavira - Roma
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Alt. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians
This category could look REALLY politically correct, Oscars. Go Regina! You can do it!
What a stunning inclusion - probably my favourite surprise. Go Marina!
Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Alt: Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy x Sam Rockwell - Vice
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alt. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows
I wish there'd be a Widows wave tomorrow morning. And if Oscars really watches non-mainstream movies and wants to be even more politically correct, Steven Yeun would be nominated for Burning. Sam Rockwell should not make this category. I don't even know why Vice is so award popular?
Ugh.
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alt: Sam Rockwell - Vice
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
Green Book
First Reformed
Roma
Vice
Alt. Cold War
Of the Foreign Film noms, Cold War is more likely than Shoplifters to make it in.
Yay, a complete category for once!
The Favourite
Green Book
First Reformed
Roma
Vice
Alt: Cold War
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man x The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Alt. Annihilation
Come on, Alex!
Dammit, First Man lost out. But, Ballad wasn't bad, so not as hard as other First Man losses to come. *cries*
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Alt: The Death of Stalin
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Burning (South Korea) x
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Alt. Never look away (Germany)
I've
seen all five films I'm predicting of the short listed, so that's how I'm making them now.
Having now seen Never Look Away, man what an atrocious inclusion. I can not understand its nomination when a superior film that's in a similar territory is also included (Cold War). Burning should have been here!
Burning (South Korea)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Alt: The Guilty (Denmark)
ANIMATED
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alt. Early Man
This feels like all the players are here.
Make that two complete categories! I'm on a rollllll.
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alt: The Grinch
DOCUMENTARY
Hale county this morning, this evening
Won't you be my neighbor? x Of fathers and sons
Minding the gap
RBG
Three identical strangers
Alt. Free Solo
Griz is sitting this category out, but I feel obligated so I'm going to do it anyway. Bonus points for me. :p I went a little more political this time.
I've seen Won't you be my neighbor, and it made me cry so much sunshine tears. But as a feature documentary, it doesn't quite provide anything stunningly unique so I can understand its shocking miss ... somewhat. That or people just want to wait for the Tom Hanks pic for all the awards?
EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man x BlacKkKlansman
Roma x Greenbook
A Star Is Born
Alt. Vice
The best picture winner typically hides in here, but I'm not so sure if this little magical happenstance works this year (depending on how much the Oscar voters read the internet). I'm a little shakey about the First Man nomination, but it would be a crime if it misses.
This category hurts so much. First Man so deserves this, and what the hell is with the Academy. I hate this miss so much that I'm only now coming back to look at this. Grrrr.
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Alt: Vice
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Green Book x Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
Alt. If Beale Street Could Talk
Green Book should get a nom here if it's got any tech support for a Best Picture win. Cold War and Roma should get in for being black and white. The Favourite is a period film. A Star is Born is ... I don't know, popular? I wish First Man would get in but the amount of support for this film is too sad for what it is.
Never Look Away surprises and overperforms, though this is indeed its strength.
Cold War
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Alt: The Rider
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
Fantastic Beasts x Roma
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Alt. Crazy Rich Asians
Period piece, period piece. Wouldn't it be something if Annihilation makes it?
Roma overperforms here, but yay for First Man!!!!!
Fantastic Beasts 2
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Alt: Black Panther
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther x Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Mary Poppins Returns x Solo
Alt. Welcome to Marwen
Avengers should be nominated here for the battle in New York alone! I'm a little sad that Annihilation is not being remembered - just think of the bear!
The Academy remembers Solo!
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Welcome to Marwen
Alt: Mary Poppins Returns
SOUND MIXING
Mary Poppins Returns x Roma
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place x
A Star Is Born
Alt. Black Panther
I don't get why Black Panther would get a sound mixing over Avengers, but here we are. I'm predicting all the musicals.
A quiet place wuz robbed!
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born
Alt: Mary Poppins Returns
SOUND EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One x Black Panther
A Star Is Born
Alt. Roma
First man should just take this already.
Black Panther? Why???
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One
A Star Is Born
Alt: Black Panther
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Bohemian Rhapsody x Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Alt. Black Panther
Old people make up!
Dammit! Should've remembered Border!
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Alt: Black Panther
COSTUME
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians x The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alt. Fantastic Beasts
Maybe all the dresses in Asians will push a nomination here. For the glitz.
Hahahahaha. Wow not even this.
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alt: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
SCORE
Black Panther
First Man x BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Alt. Annihilation
First Man's the only score I remember.
*cries again, cries harder*
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Alt: A quiet place
SONG
Black Panther
Dumplin' x The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Poppins Returns
RBG
A Star Is Born
Alt. Mary Poppins Returns
I have no clue, but it does not matter as Shallow will win.
Surprise, Scruggs made it in for its one song. The power of Coens!
Black Panther
Dumplin'
Mary Poppins Returns
RBG
A Star Is Born
Alt: Suspiria
Read More...
Summary only...
The good:
- Send up of Gaga's oft-repeated line about 99 people not believing in her
- Colourful dresses! Saoirse Ronan's barely-there, Catherine Zeta-Jones' green dress, Nicole Kidman's wine dress, Janelle Monae's holy-crap what is that outfit? Halle Berry is how old?
- Amy Poehler and Maya Rudolph, always making me laugh
- Christian Bale's speech and taking cues from his wife, so cute!
- Gosh dang that butt ugly Chris Pine
- Jeff Bridges' ramblings LMPO
- That dude 'trembling like a leaf'
- Colman's win! Her dress, her speech, her everything!
- Glenn Close's win!
The head-scratching thing that happened
- Bohemian Rhapsody leapfrogs into the front
The bad:
- Kate Mara's dress
- Jamie Lee Curtis out Cruella-Deville Glenn Close
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Bohemian Rhapsody
Huh.
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Green Book
Dammit, why didn't I listen to my own gut?
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
They seem to like this one.
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Glenn Close - The wife
Haha no Gaga. But most importantly, the race for that Best Actress Oscars begins!
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
I guess this is going to be a thing.
BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Yes please!
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Christian Bale - Vice
Aw, Christian, I'm going to pretend this win is for all your other movies.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King - If Beale Street could talk
Yes, ma'am!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
I have a feeling Ali is going to be like Tom Hanks for a while, getting nominated with every role.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Green Book
Well this was an unexpected loss for The Favourite. They were roundly ignored for most of the night, most unfortunately.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Shallow
Duh.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
First Man
So glad I'm wrong!
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Spider-man: into the Spider-verse
First correct guess!
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma (Mexico)
That's all folks.
Read More...
Summary only...
Well, I missed the nomination predictions, again. But, fear not! Here are some last minute winner predix! Purple is my friend and long time guest, Griz.
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
The Favourite
Alt: Green Book
Green Book
Alt: The Favourite
I really want to go with the crowd-pleaser, but, for some reason, it is not really burning up this award season. What gives? Anyway, I guess I could go with the Favourite because it stars three powerhouse winning performances and the tide may be in favour of the women?
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
A star is born
Alt: Black Panther
A star is born
Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody
Given that this category is a joke, A Star is Born may as well win. Is there any other choice? I mean, my alt is a superhero picture! I figure Beale Street and BlacKkKlansman will split votes, and why would anyone vote for Bohemian Rhapsody over A Star is Born?
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Alt: Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Alfon Cuaron - Roma
Alt: Bradley Cooper - A star is Born
Cuaron should win, but the foreign press may go for Star all the way.
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
Alt: Glenn Close - The Wife
Lady Gaga - A star is Born
Alt: Melissa McCarthy - Can you ever forgive me?
I'm a little preemptively disappointed that Gaga is going to get an Oscar nomination for her uneven performance, and so I'm gonna pretend like nothing happens when she wins the Globes simply based on low expectations.
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Alt: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt: Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
If Gaga is getting hers, Bradley better gets his! I'm betting Globes will go with STARS.
BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Alt: Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Alt: Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
There can only be Olivia.
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Alt: Christian Bale -Vice
Christian Bale - Vice
Alt: Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
Both actors gained weight for their role, but Viggo's performance is a touch above the caricature that Christian unfortunately falls into. Hopefully that translates to a win here, but there's also Lin-Manuel Miranda. Who the heck knows? I ain't watching no Mary Poppins!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Alt: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
Alt: Emma Stone - The Favourite
I find it hard to believe Globes will pass the chance to reward Stone in this delish role, but my Regina King alt may just sneak in for diversity sake (and also because she deserves it!).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Alt: Richard E. Grant - Can you ever forgive me?
Richard E. Grant - Can you ever forgive me?
Alt: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Maybe Adam Driver will come through after all, but I'm going for the obvious here first.
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
Alt: Green Book
The Favourite
Alt: Roma
The Favourite should win here, but watch out for Green sneak attack!
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Shallow
Alt: All the stars
Shallow
Alt: All the stars
As if they'd not go Gaga.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther
Alt: Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Alt: Black Panther
Why not.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Spider-man: into the Spider-verse
Alt: The Incredibles 2
The Incredibles 2
Alt: Spider-man: into the Spider-verse
Have yet to see Spidey but this category is a little weak this year?
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma (Mexico)
Alt: Capernaum (Lebanon)
Roma (Mexico)
Alt: Girl (Belgium)
Roma should win, given that Alfonso shows up in the Director category. But just in case of an upset, watch out for the horde of little street kids to steal your Globe.
Read More...
Summary only...
 |
| Frances McDormand in Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri |
I've been feeling like McDormand in this scene here (not the entire film) this past week, so I'm glad for the Oscars to cap the night off. I wonder who'd tune in to the telecast though, with its roster of old-news, indie-crossing films, contrasting with the lingering buzz of new and exciting time at the theatre for one
particular movie (Black Panther's sucking the air out of every other
film), and a supercharged (read: uncomfortable) time in Hollywood right now. I'm going to try and will this process into a light, entertaining show for myself somehow.
Added my friend Griz's predictions in
purple. (Actual results will be in
red and show comments in
blue).
Show comment:
-Beautiful stage production
-The stunt was meaningful, though Gal kinda shot this year's Oscars when she proclaimed watching A Wrinkle of Time was better than being at the Oscars.
-Maya Rudolph and Tiffany Haddish were this year's Amy and Tina
-Too bad the top pictures did not get highlighted. Couldn't they have left out the awkward military tribute?
-Bigger guns from the best picture list that went home empty-handed: Ladybird and The Post. Other than these, the Academy really distributed the wealth.
-This has been my best prediction showing yet! 18/21 correct, 20/21 with alternates. Griz got 15/21 correct, and 19/21 with alternates. I guess this means the Oscars was too predictable - you just have to follow the political line to predict these wins.
PICTURE
Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. The shape of water
Historically, the Oscars tended to go epic rather than small, but the recent cultural climate and the last couple of years really threw the old conventional cobwebs off. Yet, even taking into consideration the backlash to Billboards, I still can't think of a solid reason
for any other nominee to win this game.
Three Billboards
Alt. The Shape of Water
Show comment: Hahahahahahaha. I did not read about this, so having Dunaway and Beatty back is hilarious. Oh wait, did they read it correctly??? Wow. Well del Toro checked. I guess the backlash was real.
DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The shape of water
Alt. Jordan Peele – Get out
There's no stopping del Toro, which is too bad because Christopher Nolan deserves this more. The only other person who could pull a surprise at this point is Peele, but Shape of Water's more epic feel will likely win out.
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Alt. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Show comment: D'awwwwwwwwww. Finally, the last of the Mexican trio won.
ACTRESS
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
There's no denying Frances, who won pretty much everything leading up to the Oscars.
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Alt. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Show comment: McDormand's laugh juxtaposed with the spine-chilling request to the room.
ACTOR
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet – Call me by your name
I think Gary will get his Oscar, though this could be where things get interesting.
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Alt. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Show comment: Haven't seen the movie but Gary is lovely.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
This is the only acting category where a minority could sneak in ... but nah. Allison got this. Oscarssowhite(andMexican) it is.
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Alt. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Show comment: Beautiful dress on Allison.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Wouldn't it be something if Dafoe wins this? I mean, poor Sam. I like him in a lot of projects, but not Billboards. It is a wonder that his ignoramus character actually manages to get him a nom, and a dominating one at that.
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Alt. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Show comment: Love Sam's blend of sweetness and humility in his speech.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get out
Alt. Lady bird
A hard category to predict - Get out did win WGA, though I think Ladybird is more screen-play flashy in comparison. Which narrative will win out: minority or women? The only reason I'm predicting Get out is because Lady bird has a competition for the women narrative: Three Billboards. Probably split the vote, and Get out rises. This means Lady Bird goes home empty handed, which would be a surprisingly poor show for a critical darling.
Three Billboards
Alt. Get Out
Show comment: Wow Nicole's dress. I'm impressed at my reasoning for this win.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
Alt. Mudbound
Hard to imagine Call me would lose this one, especially with the speech at the end. However, Mudbound could sneak in. Not nearly as much oppression in Call me...
Call Me By Your Name
Alt. Molly's Game
Show comment: "We've all gone through first love, I hope, and come out on the other side intact."
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
A fantastic woman
Alt. The square
The problem with The Square winning is that it's like shooting fish in a barrel, and it does not give the Academy political brownie points. A fantastic woman would. Let us remember that Toni Erdmann lost to The Salesman last year, probably for the same reason.
The Square (Sweden)
Alt. Loveless (Russia)
Show comment: vindicated!
ANIMATED
Coco
Alt. The Breadwinner
I can't imagine Coco losing this, simply because the other ones just don't seem to have much support.
Coco
Alt. The Breadwinner
Show comment: I want a BB8.
DOCUMENTARY
Faces Places x Icarus
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo
Similar to animated, I don't see a lot of support for the other films. At least not on the internet, and we know the internet is everything.
Faces Places
Alt. Last Men in Aleppo
Show comment: apparently, the internet is not everything.
EDITING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Will Dunkirk get a big category consolation prize?
Baby Driver
Alt. Dunkirk
Show comment: Thanking the director's wife, heh. Thank you to the audience, oh Jimmy.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk
Get that Oscar, Deakins!
Blade Runner 2049
Alt. Dunkirk
Show comment: YES!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The shape of water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049
It would be weird for a movie to just win Best Director and nothing else, wouldn't it? For my money, I would give it to Blade Runner.
The Shape of Water
Alt. Blade Runner 2049
Show comment: Woo shout out to Toronto! What are that man's glasses? Lupita's dress: wowza.
VISUAL EFFECTS
War for the planet of the apes
Alt. Blade Runner: 2049
Lots and lots of ape suits.
Blade Runner 2049
Alt. War for the Planet of the Apes
Show comment: Woot!! First win for Blade Runner!
SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Baby Driver had wonderful mix of sound but Dunkirk should win this.
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Show comment: flight and safe landing, yes, we all need these.
SOUND EDITING
Dunkirk
Alt. Baby Driver
Dunkirk is a lot of sound.
Dunkirk
Alt. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Show comment: These guys are the chillest.
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder
I tend to forget the hairstyling part of this category, but that's because quite often the winner is based on make-up. For that, I'm predicting the Alt. would be Wonder. Yes, I'm deliberating the Alts, because Darkest Hour got this in the bag.
Darkest Hour
Alt. Wonder
Show comment: Armie & Gal, what a presenter pair. The winner was so sweet. He thanked his cat. :'(
COSTUME
Phantom Thread
Alt. The shape of water
Throw P.T. Anderson a bone here!
Phantom Thread
Alt. Victoria & Abdul
Show comment: Eva Marie Saint!!! Her opening introduction was funny and touching... what a narrator! That man is going to win the jet ski.
SCORE
The shape of water
Alt. Dunkirk
Not on the Water train, and would love a Dunkirk surprise here (I'm rooting against myself and for Griz here?).
Dunkirk
Alt. The Shape of Water
Show comment: Walken got a standing ovation because ... he was old?
SONG
Coco – Remember me
Alt. Call me by your name – Mystery of Love
Eh. It'd be a pleasant surprise if Sufjan Stevens wins.
Coco
Alt. The Greatest Showman
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