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The following prediction depends on one version of the night, the one in which Green Book's controversies catch up to it and it loses all that it's up for. The film should have had this in the bag, but we're in a different time, and this version is going to mark this change in the sand. The other version brings us back to more a more aw-shucks Oscars year, so brace yourself for a very bad time if it wins. It'll be better for everyone if it loses, including for the film itself. I would really hate to read anything follow up on that alternate universe version of the night. My friend Griz's predictions in purple.
PICTURE
Roma
Alt. BlacKkKlansman
Once upon a time, The Favourite had a chance. That was before people got to the bunny ending. Sadly, the mass is not ready for that, and most importantly, neither is the Academy. Admired and respected, yes. Awarded best pic? What's that Spike Lee film?
Green Book
Alt. Roma
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron
Alt. Spike Lee
It's possible for Spike to strike here, depending on how American leaning the Academy is going to go. I wouldn't be too surprised, as Cuaron already got an Oscar recently.
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Alt. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
ACTRESS
Glenn Close - The Wife
Alt. Olivia Colman
So sad that Glenn Close is going to win this for being due and Olivia is going to lose it for not being due (and actually being amazing and memorable in a great role). Nonetheless, I'm glad Olivia had her time in the sun before tomorrow. What a gal.
Glenn Close - The Wife
Alt. Olivia Colman - The Favourite
ACTOR
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. Christian Bale
I guess it's a forgone conclusion. Rami is a sweet guy, but who would've thunk he'd be where he's at today, a shoo-in for best actor?
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. Christian Bale - Vice
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Win
Alt. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
A hard category to favour, but I'm going to give it to King for a beautiful motherly portrayal.
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Alt. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Alt. Richard E. Grant - Can you ever forgive me?
I can't believe Ali is about to have two statues. He's got some very productive roles in the past few years huh?
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Alt. Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
Alt. Green Book
The Favourite should win this, and it would be bad for Green Book to win here. But obviously without a win here, the film would be less likely to win Best Picture with just one other win (Ali)? I guess it means if you're going to ride Green Book, you're going to ignore the favourite here (haha pun).
Green Book
Alt. The Favourite
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman
Alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A place to award Spike Lee if they don't give him Director.
BlacKkKlansman
Alt. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Roma (Mexico)
Alt. Cold War (Poland)
It'd be weird if anything else wins this category but Roma.
Roma (Mexico)
Alt. Cold War (Poland)
ANIMATED
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alt. The Incredibles 2
There's no other way.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alt. Incredibles 2
DOCUMENTARY
Free Solo
Alt. Minding the gap
The incredible shots from Free Solo should help it win this field.
Free Solo
Alt. RBG
EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. Vice
I know Vice is all like, I'M HERE, but I loathe to put it down for anything. Which probably means it'll win. Hm.
Vice
Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roma
Alt. Cold War
Battle of the black and white foreign films, from foreign land, where they still like black and white.
Roma
Alt. Cold War
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Favourite
Alt. Black Panther
There's a huge American threat in this line up.
The Favourite
Alt. Mary Poppins Returns
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Alt. First Man
Although I do quite like the Avengers' effects, they don't need this! If there's an Oscars god, please let First Man win everything it's up for. *prays*
First Man
Alt. Avengers: Infinity War
SOUND MIXING
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. A Star is Born
Battle of the musicals - I'm giving the edge to Bohemian simply because it seems to have more support, sight unseen.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. A Star Is Born
SOUND EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. First Man
This is surprisingly the most fierce battle for the win - A quiet place is not that far behind.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alt. First Man
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Border
Alt. Mary Queen of Scots
How did The Favourite not get in?
Vice
Alt. Border
COSTUME
The Favourite
Alt. Black Panther
Panther is a real threat here, and it would be a travesty if it should pull an upset at the expense of the deserving Favourite.
The Favourite
Alt. Black Panther
SCORE
Black Panther
Alt. If Beale Street Could Talk
I don't care, they did not nominate First Man. This category is dead to me. Awards-race wise, this would be the one category they could award Beale Street with.
Black Panther
Alt. Mary Poppins Returns
SONG
A star is born
Alt. Black Panther
I'd love for a surprise Black Panther win here. Just for this one though. Please.
A Star Is Born
Alt. Black Panther
1 Response to Oscars 2019 Winners Prediction: the American crisis
So the final results are in, you scoring 14 correct plus 5 alts and me scoring 17 plus 3 alts!
I'm actually a bit shocked I did so well, I only missed completely in one category. Feels like one of my better results in many a year. Then again, it was not really a night of huge upsets either, that surely helped.
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