Oscars nominations 2019 predictions (and actuals): who's the Favourite now?

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Green Book

Ahhh Oscars is nigh! So many problems, so little time! Added my friend Griz's predictions in purple. May the best prognosticator win at life and everything. (Actual results will be in red).

PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man x
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk x
Roma
A star is born
Vice

Alt. Cold War

I'm predicting Black Panther because everyone else is, not because of its worth or that I think the Academy would typically go for it. It's because I want to fit in. And also because I don't want to be foolish in not accounting for this very politicized period of time in Hollywood. Of this field, my horses are First Man, The Favourite, and Roma. First Man is most in danger of missing, which is a shame. If that's the case, I hope Cold War sneaks in! As a side note, I hope Green Book gets loads of nominations, because the 'backlash' against this film is so manufactured and silly and frankly counterproductive.

SO ... this category is a major disappointment in that First Man missed AND it's a short one! Really, Academy?

Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice


DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born x Adam McKay - Vice
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Peter Farrelly - Green Book x
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Alt. Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

This category may have an upset. Come on, Pawel! The most deserving person who'd not be nominated is Damien Chazelle. That's okay, he's already got an Oscars, and he'll be good for a long time. That's what I tell my sheep when I go to sleep at night.

Woot! Pawel! Sorry Damien. :(

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Peter Farrelly - Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

Alt. Adam McKay – Vice


ACTRESS
Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns x Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Viola Davis - Widows x
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt. Lady Gaga – A Star is Born

I just don't want to live in a world where Lady Gaga gets a nom for a remake and an uneven performance at best (in some parts she was down right terrible!). But then again, there's Trump as a POTUS in this world, so, I should reconsider my priorities. Go kick her off, Viola! You know what would be good, too? Joanna Kulig! I suppose Yalitza could pick up a nomination, but ... is Hollywood THAT self-corrective?

Wow Ya ... litza! (Sorry) I guess Hollywood is THAT self-corrective.

Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Yalitza Aparicio - Roma


ACTOR
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed x Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Alt. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

Ethan Hawke surprisingly did not make SAG. I say surprising, because it's a showy performance, not because I know anything about SAG's love for him. I'm putting him in because I find it hard to believe people are voting for Washington's performance in that film. But there are other unbelievable things in the world. Like, salt lake in the ocean. More importantly, would the optics look bad if in a film called BlacKkKlansman, the actor to get nominated is white (see below)?

It's neither! I haven't seen Dafoe's performance but I'm sure it's classic Dafoe?

Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke - First Reformed
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Alt: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man x Marina de Tavira - Roma
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Alt. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians

This category could look REALLY politically correct, Oscars. Go Regina! You can do it!

What a stunning inclusion - probably my favourite surprise. Go Marina!

Amy Adams - Vice
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Alt: Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy x Sam Rockwell - Vice
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt.   Daniel Kaluuya  – Widows

I wish there'd be a Widows wave tomorrow morning. And if Oscars really watches non-mainstream movies and wants to be even more politically correct, Steven Yeun would be nominated for Burning. Sam Rockwell should not make this category. I don't even know why Vice is so award popular?

Ugh.

Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: Sam Rockwell - Vice


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
Green Book
First Reformed
Roma
Vice

Alt. Cold War

Of the Foreign Film noms, Cold War is more likely than Shoplifters to make it in.

Yay, a complete category for once!

The Favourite
Green Book
First Reformed
Roma
Vice

Alt: Cold War


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man x The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Alt. Annihilation

Come on, Alex!

Dammit, First Man lost out. But, Ballad wasn't bad, so not as hard as other First Man losses to come. *cries*

BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Alt: The Death of Stalin


FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Burning (South Korea) x
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Alt. Never look away (Germany)

I've seen all five films I'm predicting of the short listed, so that's how I'm making them now.

Having now seen Never Look Away, man what an atrocious inclusion. I can not understand its nomination when a superior film that's in a similar territory is also included (Cold War). Burning should have been here!

Burning (South Korea)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Alt: The Guilty (Denmark)


ANIMATED
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alt. Early Man

This feels like all the players are here.

Make that two complete categories! I'm on a rollllll.

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alt: The Grinch


DOCUMENTARY
Hale county this morning, this evening
Won't you be my neighbor? x Of fathers and sons
Minding the gap
RBG
Three identical strangers

Alt. Free Solo

Griz is sitting this category out, but I feel obligated so I'm going to do it anyway. Bonus points for me. :p I went a little more political this time.

I've seen Won't you be my neighbor, and it made me cry so much sunshine tears. But as a feature documentary, it doesn't quite provide anything stunningly unique so I can understand its shocking miss ... somewhat. That or people just want to wait for the Tom Hanks pic for all the awards?

EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man x BlacKkKlansman
Roma x Greenbook
A Star Is Born

Alt. Vice

The best picture winner typically hides in here, but I'm not so sure if this little magical happenstance works this year (depending on how much the Oscar voters read the internet). I'm a little shakey about the First Man nomination, but it would be a crime if it misses.

This category hurts so much. First Man so deserves this, and what the hell is with the Academy. I hate this miss so much that I'm only now coming back to look at this. Grrrr.

Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Alt: Vice


CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Green Book x Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

Alt. If Beale Street Could Talk

Green Book should get a nom here if it's got any tech support for a Best Picture win. Cold War and Roma should get in for being black and white. The Favourite is a period film. A Star is Born is ... I don't know, popular? I wish First Man would get in but the amount of support for this film is too sad for what it is.

Never Look Away surprises and overperforms, though this is indeed its strength.

Cold War
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Alt: The Rider


PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
Fantastic Beasts x Roma
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man

Alt. Crazy Rich Asians

Period piece, period piece. Wouldn't it be something if Annihilation makes it?

Roma overperforms here, but yay for First Man!!!!!

Fantastic Beasts 2
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Alt: Black Panther


VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther x Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Mary Poppins Returns x Solo

Alt. Welcome to Marwen

Avengers should be nominated here for the battle in New York alone! I'm a little sad that Annihilation is not being remembered - just think of the bear!

The Academy remembers Solo!

Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Welcome to Marwen

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns


SOUND MIXING
Mary Poppins Returns x Roma
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place x
A Star Is Born

Alt. Black Panther

I don't get why Black Panther would get a sound mixing over Avengers, but here we are. I'm predicting all the musicals.

A quiet place wuz robbed!

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns


SOUND EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One x Black Panther
A Star Is Born

Alt. Roma

First man should just take this already.

Black Panther? Why???

Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One
A Star Is Born

Alt: Black Panther


MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Bohemian Rhapsody x Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Alt. Black Panther

Old people make up!

Dammit! Should've remembered Border!

Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Alt: Black Panther


COSTUME
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians x The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Alt. Fantastic Beasts

Maybe all the dresses in Asians will push a nomination here. For the glitz.

Hahahahaha. Wow not even this.

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Alt: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


SCORE
Black Panther
First Man x BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Alt. Annihilation


First Man's the only score I remember.

*cries again, cries harder*

Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: A quiet place


SONG
Black Panther
Dumplin' x The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Poppins Returns
RBG
A Star Is Born

Alt. Mary Poppins Returns

I have no clue, but it does not matter as Shallow will win.

Surprise, Scruggs made it in for its one song. The power of Coens!

Black Panther
Dumplin'
Mary Poppins Returns
RBG
A Star Is Born

Alt: Suspiria



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1 Response to Oscars nominations 2019 predictions (and actuals): who's the Favourite now?

Grizzly
January 22, 2019 at 12:19 PM

The results are in, you got 80 correct plus 7 alternates while I got 82 correct plus 9 alternates!

Both our worst category was Film Editing where we only had 2 correct plus an alternate each. Oof! The only categories we aced were Original Screenplay and Animated Film, as well as Best Picture (but we both picked the full 10 lineup so that's a bit easier/cheaty).

We didn't do fantastic, but at least most of the surprises were pleasant ones?

 

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