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Maybe I should change this site to Awards Auteur, because all I do recently is keep up with the awards season. I have to sort myself out soon? In the mean time, here are the predix from me and my friend, Griz (in Purple).
Post announcement (PA) comments in Blue.
PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Predix: Will it be Foxcatcher or Selma? I'm going with the PGA noms, and the fact that Selma seems to be losing steam. However, there is one thing going for Griz's pick against Foxcatcher: that picture is pretty darn cold.
PA: I think Selma totally had a political nomination in the Best Picture category. The Academy couldn't have loved it that much if it got in nowhere else. If anything, this was probably the Academy trying to overcompensate for it not making the card on other categories. Foxcatcher, I can understand the lack of love for it somewhat. It's a really cold film. You may admire it (which is probably why Miller got in for directing) but I don't think you'd lurve it.
DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González I ñárritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
Alt: David Fincher - Gone Girl
Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Clint Eastwood - American Sniper
Alejandro González I ñárritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
Alt: David Fincher - Gone Girl
Predix: The DGA kinda set the ball in motion? It's too bad about Tyldum. The Imitation Game is not at all well directed. Though, I suppose it is better directed than it is written, which is not saying much.
PA: Eastwood inexplicably got left out of the race. I'd say the ONLY reason why Sniper is even IN the race is because of this man. Unless they really love Cooper...
ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard - Two days, One night
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Alt: Jennifer Aniston - Cake
Amy Adams - Big Eyes
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Alt: Jennifer Aniston - Cake
Predix: I haven't seen Cake, but I feel nervous going against SAG noms. I still think there's a sheen on her that says TV ACTRESS FRIEND. We'll see in a few hours! Meanwhile, there's Marion Cotillard and Amy Adams, one in a more well reviewed film than the other, both perennial favourites. Let's split!
PA: Vindicated! My reasoning actually played out this time!
ACTOR
Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Alt: David Oyelowo - Selma
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo - Selma
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Alt: Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Predix: This is a heavy weight category - 2014 was a year filled with many strong male performances to choose from. I'm going with SAG here, but David Oyelowo could easily take that spot. The nomination that would make me so happy though would be Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Please please please!
PA: I guess they do really love BCoop. He has been nominated, what, thrice in a row now? Jake Gyllenhaal got shafted. Although, I have to say, his character is a little close to Steve Carrell's in that "weird psycho dude" way, and Steven's was in a better 'produced' film so maybe that hurt his chance.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emma Stone - Birdman
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Alt: Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emma Stone - Birdman
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Alt: Rene Russo - Nightcrawler
Predix: I don't get the Rene Russo buzz. Beautiful lady, over the top character / performance. I could probably say the same thing about Swinton, but she was way funnier.
PA: I'm just happy the Russo thing didn't happen - not because I don't like her, but because that would've been a bad nomination. But then again, I'm pretty sure Keira got in because of the picture she was in (Game's gonna win it, watch out Boyhood!), not because of her performance (el blando). I suppose Laura Dern was a surprise nomination - I didn't see that coming, probably because I haven't seen the movie. Too bad about Tilda Swinton though.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Alt: Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Alt: Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice
Predix: This category looks pretty set. Poor Tatum.
PA: A perfectly predicted category! I would pick Brolin over Hawke though - I've never been a fan of Hawke's characterization.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Alt: Selma
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Alt: Selma
PA: Selma should've picked up a spot here if it was a player. And we knew it wasn't.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Alt: Whiplash
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Alt: Wild
Predix: Thank goodness Griz alerted me to the Whiplash debacle. It may mean Whiplash would get shafted, depending on how the Academy members voted?
PA: I'm actually surprised that Vice got in for this particular category, because it is something of a mess, especially from a traditional point of view. If I had read more about Whiplash, I would've probably predicted it over Wild. The Academy does like to award nominations to quirky writers / directors here.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Alt: Timbuktu (Mauretania)
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Alt: Timbuktu (Mauretania)
PA: I looked at Timbuktu trailer, and I don't get it. I should celebrate Wild Tales getting in though - who knew a collection of short, crazy Argentinian films would make it to the Oscars of all places?
ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Alt: The Book of Life
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
Song of the Sea
Alt: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
PA: As the kids say these days, I can't even.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Citizenfour
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
Alt: The Overnighters
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
Tales of the Grim Sleeper
Virunga
Alt: The Overnighters
Predix: A truly blind set of guesses. I'm sad The Look of Silence didn't make the list though.
PA: I believe I made a mistake with my Alt. (it should've been Finding Vivian Maier) but whatever, I'm not changing it (I hope you're happy, Griz :p ). I really should rent some of these.
EDITING
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Alt: American Sniper
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Alt: Nightcrawler
Predix: The Imitation Game is least deserving of a nom here, but this is an important category for Best Picture winner so it has to be here if it's going to win the whole deal.
PA: DUH! I should've thought about this more and realized that editing for Birdman would've been a silly nomination, considering its claim to fame in NOT editing.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Alt: Interstellar
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Alt: The Imitation Game
PA: I really should've paid more attention to this category (in my defense, this was really late at night, at the end of a 12 hours day that preceded by two weeks straight of such days). Of course it made sense that Ida picked up a nom here. It's in black and white!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Interstellar
Alt: Mr. Turner
Big Eyes
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Alt: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
PA: So here's a strike against Birdman winning Best Picture. This is one of its more noticeable 'goods' and to lose out to an inferior Game here is not a good sign. If this says anything, it's that Game's got game and Birdman's pooped.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Alt: X-Men: Days of Future Past
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Alt: Godzilla
PA: Alas, wishful thinking doesn't make it true. Sorry, Godzilla. I don't get the Captain America nomination here though. How is it any better than Godzilla? It's not. This category sucks.
SOUND MIXING
American Sniper
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash
Alt: Birdman
American Sniper
Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Imitation Game
Unbroken
Alt: Interstellar
PA: Into the Woods: D.O.A.
SOUND EDITING
American Sniper
Interstellar
Unbroken
Alt: The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
American Sniper
Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Unbroken
Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything
Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Predix: I thought about Planet of the Apes, and I'm like, this is the Oscars. They don't care for Make up! They care for prosthetic acting! Hence, un-deserving Foxcacther probably gets it. Way to go, Carell's nose.
PA: Yup, the nose triumphs, once again. It's nice to see Budapest here though - it means, the Academy actually likes this movie!
COSTUME
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
Alt: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
PA: I don't get Vice's nomination here. Hobbit wuz robbed.
SCORE
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Alt: Birdman
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Alt: Gone Girl
PA: I'm a little surprised at the over-performance of Mr. Turner.
SONG
Begin Again
The LEGO Movie
Selma
Alt: Annie
Begin Again
Big Eyes
Boyhood
The LEGO Movie
Selma
Alt: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
PA: This category once again goes bananas. I should've known there would be something out of the left field like ... um, Glen Campbell: I'll be me. Is that even a movie?
2 Response to Oscars 2015 Nominations (Predix + Actual): 'tis the Eve of Moderate Surprises
I did some calculations and you ended up with 82 correct predictions plus 7 alts, and I had 85 plus 5 alts! Woo hoo, in yo face! :P
Feel free to double check though!
Nah, I trust you. I thought during the announcement that I was losing again, and I was right. Gosh darn it.
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