Oscars 2015 Nominations (Predix + Actual): 'tis the Eve of Moderate Surprises

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Maybe I should change this site to Awards Auteur, because all I do recently is keep up with the awards season. I have to sort myself out soon? In the mean time, here are the predix from me and my friend, Griz (in Purple).

Post announcement (PA) comments in Blue.

PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher 
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

American Sniper 
Birdman 
Boyhood 
Gone Girl 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
The Imitation Game 
Nightcrawler 
Selma 
The Theory of Everything 
Whiplash

Predix: Will it be Foxcatcher or Selma? I'm going with the PGA noms, and the fact that Selma seems to be losing steam. However, there is one thing going for Griz's pick against Foxcatcher: that picture is pretty darn cold.

PA: I think Selma totally had a political nomination in the Best Picture category. The Academy couldn't have loved it that much if it got in nowhere else. If anything, this was probably the Academy trying to overcompensate for it not making the card on other categories. Foxcatcher, I can understand the lack of love for it somewhat. It's a really cold film. You may admire it (which is probably why Miller got in for directing) but I don't think you'd lurve it.

DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Clint Eastwood - American Sniper Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
Alejandro González I ñárritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game

Alt: David Fincher - Gone Girl

Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Clint Eastwood - American Sniper 
Alejandro González I ñárritu - Birdman 
Richard Linklater - Boyhood 
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game   

Alt: David Fincher - Gone Girl

Predix: The DGA kinda set the ball in motion? It's too bad about Tyldum. The Imitation Game is not at all well directed. Though, I suppose it is better directed than it is written, which is not saying much.

PA: Eastwood inexplicably got left out of the race. I'd say the ONLY reason why Sniper is even IN the race is because of this man. Unless they really love Cooper... 

ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard - Two days, One night
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild

Alt: Jennifer Aniston - Cake

Amy Adams - Big Eyes 
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything 
Julianne Moore - Still Alice 
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl 
Reese Witherspoon - Wild  

Alt: Jennifer Aniston - Cake

Predix: I haven't seen Cake, but I feel nervous going against SAG noms. I still think there's a sheen on her that says  TV ACTRESS FRIEND. We'll see in a few hours! Meanwhile, there's Marion Cotillard and Amy Adams, one in a more well reviewed film than the other, both perennial favourites. Let's split!

PA: Vindicated! My reasoning actually played out this time!

ACTOR
Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler Bradley Cooper - American Sniper
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

Alt: David Oyelowo - Selma

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game 
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler 
David Oyelowo - Selma 
Michael Keaton - Birdman 
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything   

Alt: Steve Carell - Foxcatcher

Predix: This is a heavy weight category - 2014 was a year filled with many strong male performances to choose from. I'm going with SAG here, but David Oyelowo could easily take that spot. The nomination that would make me so happy though would be Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Please please please!

PA: I guess they do really love BCoop. He has been nominated, what, thrice in a row now? Jake Gyllenhaal got shafted. Although, I have to say, his character is a little close to Steve Carrell's in that "weird psycho dude" way, and Steven's was in a better 'produced' film so maybe that hurt his chance.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year Laura Dern - Wild
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emma Stone - Birdman
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

Alt: Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood 
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year 
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game 
Emma Stone - Birdman 
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods   

Alt: Rene Russo - Nightcrawler

Predix: I don't get the Rene Russo buzz. Beautiful lady, over the top character / performance. I could probably say the same thing about Swinton, but she was way funnier.

PA: I'm just happy the Russo thing didn't happen - not because I don't like her, but because that would've been a bad nomination. But then again, I'm pretty sure Keira got in because of the picture she was in (Game's gonna win it, watch out Boyhood!), not because of her performance (el blando). I suppose Laura Dern was a surprise nomination - I didn't see that coming, probably because I haven't seen the movie. Too bad about Tilda Swinton though.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

Alt: Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice

Robert Duvall - The Judge 
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood 
Edward Norton - Birdman 
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher 
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash   

Alt: Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice

Predix: This category looks pretty set. Poor Tatum.

PA: A perfectly predicted category! I would pick Brolin over Hawke though - I've never been a fan of Hawke's characterization. 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler  

Alt: Selma

Birdman 
Boyhood 
Foxcatcher 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Nightcrawler   

Alt: Selma

PA: Selma should've picked up a spot here if it was a player. And we knew it wasn't.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Sniper
Gone Girl Inherent Vice
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Wild 

Alt: Whiplash

American Sniper 
Gone Girl 
The Imitation Game 
The Theory of Everything 
Whiplash   

Alt: Wild

Predix: Thank goodness Griz alerted me to the Whiplash debacle. It may mean Whiplash would get shafted, depending on how the Academy members voted?

PA: I'm actually surprised that Vice got in for this particular category, because it is something of a mess, especially from a traditional point of view.  If I had read more about Whiplash, I would've probably predicted it over Wild. The Academy does like to award nominations to quirky writers / directors here.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Alt: Timbuktu (Mauretania)

Force Majeure (Sweden) 
Ida (Poland) 
Leviathan (Russia) 
Tangerines (Estonia) 
Wild Tales (Argentina)   

Alt: Timbuktu (Mauretania)

PA: I looked at Timbuktu trailer, and I don't get it. I should celebrate Wild Tales getting in though - who knew a collection of short, crazy Argentinian films would make it to the Oscars of all places?

ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Alt: The Book of Life

Big Hero 6 
The Boxtrolls 
How To Train Your Dragon 2 
The LEGO Movie 
Song of the Sea   

Alt: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

PA: As the kids say these days, I can't even.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Citizenfour
Life Itself Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
Tales of the Grim Sleeper The salt of the Earth
Virunga

Alt: The Overnighters

Citizenfour 
Finding Vivian Maier 
Last Days in Vietnam 
Tales of the Grim Sleeper 
Virunga   

Alt: The Overnighters 

Predix: A truly blind set of guesses. I'm sad The Look of Silence didn't make the list though.

PA: I believe I made a mistake with my Alt. (it should've been Finding Vivian Maier) but whatever, I'm not changing it (I hope you're happy, Griz :p ). I really should rent some of these.

EDITING
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash  

Alt: American Sniper

American Sniper 
Birdman 
Boyhood 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
The Imitation Game   

Alt: Nightcrawler

Predix: The Imitation Game is least deserving of a nom here, but this is an important category for Best Picture winner so it has to be here if it's going to win the whole deal.

PA: DUH! I should've thought about this more and realized that editing for Birdman would've been a silly nomination, considering its claim to fame in NOT editing.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Alt: Interstellar

Birdman 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Interstellar 
Mr. Turner 
Unbroken   

Alt: The Imitation Game

PA: I really should've paid more attention to this category (in my defense, this was really late at night, at the end of a 12 hours day that preceded by two weeks straight of such days). Of course it made sense that Ida picked up a nom here. It's in black and white!

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Interstellar 

Alt: Mr. Turner

Big Eyes 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
The Imitation Game 
Into the Woods 
Mr. Turner   

Alt: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

PA: So here's a strike against Birdman winning Best Picture. This is one of its more noticeable 'goods' and to lose out to an inferior Game here is not a good sign. If this says anything, it's that Game's got game and Birdman's pooped.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Interstellar
Godzilla!!!!!  

Alt: X-Men: Days of Future Past

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 
Guardians of the Galaxy 
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 
Interstellar 
X-Men: Days of Future Past   

Alt: Godzilla

PA: Alas, wishful thinking doesn't make it true. Sorry, Godzilla. I don't get the Captain America nomination here though. How is it any better than Godzilla? It's not. This category sucks.

SOUND MIXING
American Sniper  
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Whiplash 

Alt: Birdman

American Sniper 
Birdman 
Guardians of the Galaxy 
The Imitation Game 
Unbroken   

Alt: Interstellar

PA: Into the Woods: D.O.A.

SOUND EDITING
American Sniper
Guardians of the Galaxy Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash  

Alt: The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

American Sniper 
Birdman 
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar 
Unbroken   

Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel

MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything

Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel  

Foxcatcher 
Guardians of the Galaxy 
The Theory of Everything   

Alt: The Grand Budapest Hotel 

Predix: I thought about Planet of the Apes, and I'm like, this is the Oscars. They don't care for Make up! They care for prosthetic acting! Hence, un-deserving Foxcacther probably gets it. Way to go, Carell's nose.

PA: Yup, the nose triumphs, once again. It's nice to see Budapest here though - it means, the Academy actually likes this movie!

COSTUME
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game Inherent Vice
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Maleficent
Into the Woods 
Mr. Turner

Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy

The Grand Budapest Hotel 
The Imitation Game 
Into the Woods 
Maleficent 
Mr. Turner   

Alt: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

PA: I don't get Vice's nomination here. Hobbit wuz robbed.

SCORE
Gone Girl Mr. Turner
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything

Alt: Birdman  

Birdman 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
The Imitation Game 
Interstellar 
The Theory of Everything   

Alt: Gone Girl

PA: I'm a little surprised at the over-performance of Mr. Turner.

SONG
Begin Again
Big Eyes Beyond the Lights
The LEGO Movie
Selma
The Hunger Games Glen Campbell: I'll be me 

Alt: Annie

Begin Again 
Big Eyes 
Boyhood 
The LEGO Movie 
Selma   

Alt: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1

PA: This category once again goes bananas. I should've known there would be something out of the left field like ... um, Glen Campbell: I'll be me. Is that even a movie?



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2 Response to Oscars 2015 Nominations (Predix + Actual): 'tis the Eve of Moderate Surprises

Grizzly
January 15, 2015 at 9:30 AM

I did some calculations and you ended up with 82 correct predictions plus 7 alts, and I had 85 plus 5 alts! Woo hoo, in yo face! :P

Feel free to double check though!

January 18, 2015 at 12:58 AM

Nah, I trust you. I thought during the announcement that I was losing again, and I was right. Gosh darn it.

 

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