All at once now ... the Oscars goes to ...

Pre-show: I just found out the Oscars is this weekend ... in about 2 hours or so. The neglect is real. I'm one of the plebs who occasionally watch something in theatre now, so it's hard to know what to predict/root for, which is so sad. In any case, I suppose I still care enough to make this list, so here goes nothing. (And my friend Griz's, again, in purple). Winners in red.

Brief comment: I'm not up to date on the complexity of politics in these awards, so these are based on pretty old standbys for wins. "Everything" is a lot of fun, and its competitors (for best picture) are just not strong enough to make it a horse race. It does not mean it is the best, remember.  Michelle was ok (she was the least impressive of the cast somehow?), but I have no bone to pick with her winning because I haven't even seen the other nominated actresses' performance (where's Florence Pugh, I ask you?)! I have to remind myself that the Academy awards the goodest (based on good enough quality, acting populist appeal, zeitgeist of the time, momentum/buzz), but not the best (even though there are happy occasions where these two qualities may overlap, like for Moonlight!), so this is pure fun to guess what's in favour these days. Occasionally, a pick would be puzzling or downright bad, because the time is right for that pick but not necessarily for its quality (e.g. Angela Bassett for Wakanda). And I am ok with that too, because this ain't no Cannes! 

Post show tally: I correctly predicted 17/20, Griz did 15/20 (+3 for alternates). Go us!

PICTURE

Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. All quiet on the Western front*

 

Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. All quiet on the Western front

*I don't think this is even my real pick, because the Best Picture win is a lock for Everywhere.

 

DIRECTOR

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert  - Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. Todd Field - Tár

 

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert  - Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. Ruben Östlund - Triangle of Sadness 

 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All quiet on the Western front - Germany

Alt. Argentina, 1985

All quiet on the Western front - Germany

Alt. The quiet girl - Ireland

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Alt. Turning red

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Alt. Turning red

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Navalny

Alt. All the beauty and the bloodshed

 

All the beauty and the bloodshed

Alt. Navalny

 

ACTOR

Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Alt. Austin Butler - Elvis

 

Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Alt. Austin Butler - Elvis

 

ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh - Everything everywhere all at once*

Alt. Cate Blanchett - Tár

 

Cate Blanchett - Tár 

Alt: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

 

*The SAG win changed my mind.

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jamie Lee Curtis -  Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda forever*

 

Jamie Lee Curtis -  Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda forever

 

*It would be a shame for her to win for the worse role, but she is a great actress otherwise.

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ke Huy Quan - Everything everywhere all at once*

Alt. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan - Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

 

*No need to predict this one - like best picture, it is the lockiest pick that is ever locked.

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. Triangle of sadness

 

Everything everywhere all at once

Alt. Triangle of sadness

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Women talking 

Alt. All quiet on the Western front

 

All quiet on the Western front 

Alt. Women talking 

 

FILM EDITING

Everything everywhere all at once 

Alt. Top gun: Maverick

Everything everywhere all at once 

Alt. Top gun: Maverick

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY 

All quiet on the Western front

Alt. Tár

All quiet on the Western front

Alt. Elvis 

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Elvis x All quiet on the Western front

Alt. Babylon

Babylon

Alt. Elvis

 

SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick

Alt. All quiet on the Western front

 

Top Gun: Maverick 

Alt: All quiet on the Western front

 

COSTUME

Elvis x Black Panther: Wakanda forever

Alt: Babylon

Elvis 

Alt: Babylon

 

MAKE UP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Whale

Alt. Elvis

 

The Whale

Alt. The Batman

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: the way of water

Alt. All quiet on the Western front

 

Avatar: the way of water

Alt. The Batman

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

All quiet on the Western front

Alt. The Banshees of Inisherin

All quiet on the Western front

Alt. The Fabelmans

 

ORIGINAL SONG

Lift me up - Black Panther: Wakanda forever x Naatu naatu

Alt. Hold my hand - Top Gun: Maverick

 

Naatu naatu - RRR

Alt. Hold my hand - Top Gun: Maverick

Read More...

Summary only...

Oscars nominations 2023: Everything Everywhere

 

Disclosure: I googled what actually came out that would be eligible for the Oscars, because watching movies at home and at the theatres have become a blur. 'tis a sad state of big screen cinemas.

My friend Griz's predix are in purple, as usual.

Disclaimer: I have not been following the award season at all, so basically this prediction set is based on mostly my own biased views.

PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: the Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
The Whale
Women Talking

Alt. The Wonder

Is it wishful to put The Wonder in as Alt., when I could've put in Top Gun? Or the disbelief that Top Gun would actually be a best picture nominee is valid? I voted against it twice on this list, placing Glass Onion instead of it in the main section. I'm sticking to my non-violent gun.

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking

DIRECTOR

Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Todd Field - Tár

Alt. Baz Luhrman - Elvis

I can not imagine the Academy is going with any director of action movies, or Luhrman.

Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin  
Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
Baz Luhrman - Elvis
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Todd Field - Tár

Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

ACTRESS

Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Viola Davis - The Woman King
Ana de Armas - Blonde

Alt. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

It's really a two-actors race here, innit?

Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
Cate Blanchett - Tár
Danielle Deadwyler - Till
Viola Davis - The Woman King

Alt: Ana de Armas - Blonde

ACTOR

Austin Butler - Elvis   
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser - The Whale
Bill Nighy - Living
Paul Mescal - Aftersun

Alt. Daniel Kaluuya  – Nope

Kaluuya should be there, even if his odds are not high.

Paul Mescal - Aftersun
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler - Elvis
Bill Nighy - Living
Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Alt: Huge Jackman - The Son

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Hong Chau - The Whale

Alt. Keke Palmer – Nope

I love Bassett, in everything else, but she was actressing in every scene in Panther. It's truly puzzling to me that she's in the race. And also, I may be overplaying my Nope votes here.

Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Hong Chau - The Whale

Alt: Jessie Buckley - Women Talking

SUPPORTING ACTOR
 

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Alt. Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans

Maybe SAG seals the deal, but we all know who's gonna win anyway.

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin 

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse 

Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

Alt: Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
 

Aftersun 
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin

Alt. Triangle of Sadness
 

I wonder if Turning Red could make it?

Aftersun The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Tár  Alt: Triangle of Sadness
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár  

Alt: Triangle of Sadness

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

All Quiet on the Western Front Living The Whale Women Talking  Alt: She Said
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking

Alt. She Said

Eh?

All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion Living The Whale Women Talking  Alt: She Said
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking

Alt: She Said

That's all I've got, but, Griz's got more!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
 

Alt: The Batman

The Menu had great cinematography, but I also would've put Nope in as well.

BEST FILM EDITING

The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Alt: Glass Onion


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Alt: Corsage


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

Alt: Babylon


BEST SOUND

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

Alt: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Alt: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Top Gun is more of a practical effects innit?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Fabelmans
Tár

Alt: Pinocchio

Isn't this a shoo-in for Tar?

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Life Me Up" - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Ciao Papa" - Pinocchio
"Naatu Naatu" - RRR
"Hold My Hand" - Top Gun: Maverick
"Carolina" - Where The Crawdads Sing

Alt: "Stand Up" - Till

I know Hound Dog isn't an original song, but Doja Cat's remix is my favourite song of the year from films.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell and Wild

Alt: Strange World

Turning Red is actually my favourite of the ones I've seen on this list, which just means it's better than Pinocchio. Heh.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Alt: Close (Belgium)

Shame I've seen none of these. :(

Read More...

Summary only...

Oscars winners 2022 predix (and winners): Is it a dog's world?

Placehoder for further commentary, and more last minute change ... But first, the predix, with my friend Griz's in purple. Winners in red.

 

Prior to the show comments: you know what, I'm all about the worm of the desert, but that's not what the Oscar's gonna be about, so we're gonna settle in for whatever wins the least amount of outrage. 

 

Show comments: 

- Wow I'm so glad Dune wins all the technical stuff, but it also means they're not going up that stage often. What a shame! But could this also mean not that much for Dog?

- Ariana DeBose's red jumpsuit is glorious!

- Oscars is about Dune, after all, even if it's just in the technical categories!

- Best presenter/winner speech combo: Yuh-Jung Youn/Troy Kotsur - she even attempted to sign his name!

- Academy's so rude to Drive My Car's director, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, playing him off after like 10 seconds up there. This was a major category!

- Wow it's not that much of a dog's world after all!

- Who are putting together the fan favourite list? What crap-ola is this?

- WTF HAPPENED. WILL SMITH. SLAPPING. CHRIS ROCK. ON STAGE. JAWS DROPPED. 

- You tried, Puff Daddy. You tried. Can the rest of the show recover?

- The show is zippy but, man, it's not doing a good job of highlighting the film nominees.

- Oh Billie, thanks for bringing the show back!

- Jane Campion to Kevin Costner "that was very dramatic" after he tried his darndest to imitate Obama's way of breaking a sentence into ten. I mean, it was pretty sincere and he tried, but yes, that was. 

- This Will Smith moment. What did they just censor on my TV when switching to the Williams' sisters? "At your peak, the devil comes for you." Oh, you're so wise, Danzel (or so Will Smith said Danzel said).

-WOW. What a night of a shocker. CODA unseated front runner The Power of the Dog. I guess it's time for the Power of the Nap! To the dog house!

Winners: Dune, CODA, Oscar's relevance

Not winners: Craftspeople that make the movies (thanks to pre-taped, edited down version of their wins), The power of the dog went from front runner to losing everything except Director, Chris Rock (no matter the fall out, the Will Smith moment was not great for him), nominated couples

PICTURE

The power of the dog

Alt. Drive my car

The power of the dog

Alt. CODA <<-- SHOCKER wow

 

DIRECTOR

Jane Campion

Alt. Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Jane Campion

Alt. Kenneth Branagh

 

ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain

Alt. Penelope Cruz

Jessica Chastain

Alt. Kristen Stewart

 

ACTOR

Will Smith

Alt. Benedict Cumberbatch

Will Smith

Alt. Andrew Garfield

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose

Alt. Kirsten Dunst <<- She deserves this but she's not going to get it

Griz: Ariana DeBose

Alt. Kirsten Dunst

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Troy Kotsur

Alt. Kodi Smit-McPhee

Troy Kotsur

Alt. Kodi Smit-McPhee

 

EDITING

The power of the dog

Alt. Dune YAY!!!

Dune

Alt. King Richard

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The tragedy of McBeth <<- Black and White!

Alt. The power of the dog

Dune!! <<-- over a black and white pic!

Alt. West Side story

 

PRODUCTION

Dune

Alt. West Side story

Dune

Alt. West Side story

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Belfast

Alt. King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Alt. The worse person in the world

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The power of the dog

Alt. CODA

CODA

Alt. The power of the dog

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

Encanto

Alt. Raya and the last dragon

Encanto

Alt. The Mitchells vs. the Machines

 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Drive my car

Alt. Flee

Drive my car

Alt. Flee

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Flee

Alt. Summer of soul

Summer of soul

Alt. Flee

 

SOUND

Dune

Alt. West Side story

Dune

Alt. West Side story

 

COSTUME

Cruella

Alt. West Side story

Cruella

Alt. West Side story

 

HAIR AND MAKE UP

The eyes of Tammy Faye

Alt. Cruella

The eyes of Tammy Faye

Alt. Cruella

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Alt. Spider-Man

Dune

Alt. Spider-Man

 

SONG

No time to die

Alt. Dos oruguitas

Dos oruguitas

Alt. No time to die

 

SCORE

The power of the dog

Alt. Dune YES!!!

Dune

Alt. The power of the dog

Read More...

Summary only...

Oscars 2022 Predix: What's playing on Netflix again?

Dune for everything! My friend Griz's predix are in purple, as usual.

A disclaimer: I have not seen most of the films, and basically this prediction set is based on nothing. As such, it will only be the major categories I'm predicting. The format is a mess, but I gotta sleep.

PICTURE

Belfast
CODA
Don't look up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story

Alt. Being the Ricardos

Don't look up was bad, I don't really wanna put it into my predictions, but we can't do wants all the time, can we.

Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick... Boom!
West Side Story

DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve - Dune

Alt. Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car

Listen, where the heck is this Drive My Car being streamed on?

Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car
Denis Villeneuve - Dune

Alt: Steven Spielberg - West Side Story

ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson - Respect
Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos

Alt. Kristen Stewart - Spencer

Seen nuthin' of this batch, reputation alone.

Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers

Alt: Kristen Stewart - Spencer

ACTOR

Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick... Boom!
Will Smith - King Richard
Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth


Alt. Leonardo DiCaprio – Don't look up

DiCaprio was good but it was one of his minor performances


Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio - Don't Look Up
Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick... Boom!
Will Smith - King Richard
Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alt: Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
Cate Blanchett - Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga - Passing

Alt. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Who knows? I am speeding throught this to sleep.

Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
Marlee Matlin - CODA

Alt: Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Troy Kotsur - CODA
Jared Leto - House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog

Alt. Ben Affleck – The tender bar

I have a hard time believing Ben will get a nom, but he got a SAG nom so I'm putting him in Alt.

Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Troy Kotsur - CODA
Jared Leto - House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog

Alt: Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun

Alt. King Richard

Not Don't Look Up.

Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers

Alt: King Richard

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

Alt. Nightmare Alley

Crapshoot, but please let Dune in.

CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

Alt: West Side Story

That's all I've got, because I gotta get up in, oh, less than 5 hours. But wait, Griz's got more!

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alt: West Side Story


BEST FILM EDITING

Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog

Alt: King Richard


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Alt: Licorice Pizza


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Alt: Cyrano


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Alt: Dune


BEST SOUND

A Quiet Place Part II
Dune
No Time To Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story

Alt: Belfast


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix: Resurrections
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Alt: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Belfast - "Down To Joy"
Don't Look Up - "Just Look Up"
Encanto - "Dos Oruguitas"
King Richard - "Be Alive"
No Time To Die - "No Time To Die"

Alt: Respect - "Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)"


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

I care most about Dune's nomination here

Don't Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog

Alt: Parallel Mothers


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

Alt: Belle


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

A Hero (Iran)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Alt: Compartment No. 6 (Finland)


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

Attica
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul

Alt: Ascension

Read More...

Summary only...

Oscars 2021 winner predictions (and actuals): Bottom's up!

Here we go! I'm not sure if I'll actually get to watch this. In any case, I'm expecting a big night for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. My friend, Griz, predicts in purple. Red is for actual winners.

The show: I feel like I did goood this year. The ones I didn't get were pretty much shockers? You know what was the big loser of this year? More than the producers' intentional set up for an absent best actor winner (haha 'absence' turned out to be in the literal sense and not the mortal sense)? The snoozefest broadcast itself. Wow was it ever boring. Exterior set was great; interior set was nope. And yes, I wish the band was around to play off the endless Oscar speeches. Holy mother of pearl it went ON AND ON. The only saving grace was in Yuh-Jung Youn's amazingly candid and hilarious speech. And the unexpected tear jerker twist for Thomas Vinterberg's daughter. What the hell? Let's hope we don't have to go through that kind of broadcast again. I hated that best picture did not go last. Made no sense at all. Fire them all!

PICTURE

Nomadland
Alt. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom <<-- this is hilarious, because it wasn't even nominated!

Could there be an upset? Probably not. But if there was, I'd have said the Trial stands the best chance based on nominations. However, after looking over the possibilities of wins, I'd say Ma Rainey runs a very good 2nd race (IT WASN'T NOMINATED; leaving this in for posterity). Obviously Griz disagrees. WE'LL SEE. In any other year, at any other time, Mank would be the better bet as an alternative to Nomadland. But we're in a different time now, and I'd imagine the Academy would reflect that.

Nomadland
Alt: Minari

DIRECTOR

Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
Alt. David Fincher - Mank

It's Zhao's to lose. And they're not going to miss a chance at making history in this climate.

Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
Alt: David Fincher - Mank

ACTRESS
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

I would've put Frances here if it wasn't for the fact that she won not so long ago. <<- Wow this was a genuine surprise, and probably breaking some rules. Frances has more best actress Oscars than Meryl!

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Anthony Hopkins - The father HAHHAHAHAHAHHA THIS BLEW UP IN OSCARS' PRODUCERS' FACE

Sir Anthony Hopkins is just consistently amazing, in general, and typically that can be taken for granted. So when the ink is hot for his performance, it means he's really good in it. I haven't seen it, but I bet it's showy, and just what the Oscars would want. However, given Boseman's death, this would be a good chance to reward a promising career cut short. Is Boseman good in it? Yeah. He did not knock my socks off, but he's been consistently good in all his performances. So it's not going to be a travesty or anything if he wins. Oscars rewards 'good' more often than 'great.'

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Alt. Olivia Coleman - The father

For the one-two The Father punch, Coleman could sneak in if Yuh-Jung Youn doesn't gather enough support. But again, will the Academy miss out on a historic year for another historic win? I doubt it.

Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Alt: Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Alt. Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

The Academy loves the type of performance that Raci seems to have delivered, so without the force that is Kaluuya, this would've been a tight contest. However, Kaluuya is a great presence and he was robbed for Get out and this was supposed to be a showy performance for co-lead so he wins?

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Alt: Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Promising Young Woman
Alt. The trial of the Chicago 7

Consolation prize here for Promising Young Woman, with Aaron Sorkin hot on that tail. I am not that impressed with Chicago 7 so I am biased here. I don't really understand the love for that one, honestly. Is there a love for it? The internet is unreliable here. I'm just also confused why Mank didn't get a nomination so I can't think straight for this category.

Promising Young Woman
Alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The father
Alt. Nomadland

I'm betting on a split here, based on nothing but a feeling from the trailers. Because, WHO'S ACTUALLY SEEN THEM?? Anyway, The Father seems super talky?

Nomadland
Alt: The Father

EDITING

Sound of Metal
Alt. Nomadland

They may spread the love. I guess this would depend on how loved Nomadland is. Normally I would say Nomadland, if it's going to win best picture, it should stake Editing, but Sound of Metal just seems very edit-y. Again, having seen none of them, other than Chicago 7, it's kind of hard to predict.

Sound of Metal
Alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nomadland
Alt. Mank

I dunno. Mank is in black and white, and Griz may be right here. But if Nomadland is not going to take Editing, it should take Cinematography. <<-- Oscars makes no sense to give no technical win to the eventual best picture winner. It's not my fault Oscars be crazy.

Mank
Alt: Nomadland

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank
Alt. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank should take this easily. Second runner up would be Ma Rainey's even though I do think Tenet is better. But it doesn't seem to have that much love from the Academy so Ma Rainey would be the next choice.

Mank
Alt: Tenet

COSTUME DESIGN

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Emma

What's it gonna be? A whole set of showy costume, or one-person-centric costume to win the day? It'd be weird if Mank gets in here, because then that'd be basically for Amanda Seigfried's dresses.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Mank

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Mank

I'm only putting Mank down for Amanda's hair. But Ma Rainey is soaked in sweat, so there's that.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Mank

SOUND

Sound of Metal
Alt. Soul

It would be so odd to have something else win this category. Though, Greyhound does make sense I suppose.

Sound of Metal
Alt: Soul

VISUAL EFFECTS

Tenet
Alt. The Midnight Sky

I mean, if Tenet does not win this, that's just active hate then.

Tenet
Alt: The Midnight Sky

ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul
Alt. Mank

Yeah, this should be the animated winner's other consolation prize.

Soul
Alt: Minari

ORIGINAL SONG

One night in Miami x Judas WTF noone is going to remember this win
Alt. The trial of Chicago 7

I'm torn. Leslie Odom Jr. was nominated so they probably will give him this. But Hear My Voice is a better song? Plus, would the Chicago 7 walk away empty handed? I've changed my mind like 20x on this. I'm going with Miami but this is not sure at all. <<<- Andra Day completely obliterated the nominees/winners in this category with her diss on the best songs don't get nominated. Someone might have regretted asking her questions!

One Night in Miami
Alt: The Life Ahead

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Soul
Alt. Wolfwalkers

Yup.

Soul
Alt: Wolfwalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Collective
Alt. My Octopus Teacher

There's always a surprise or two at the Oscars, and I just don't think Teacher is weighty enough to win this one. Sometimes it's not the most popular film that wins in this category. Also, Teacher is just ... tedious? <<--- I was wrong, but this was lame.

My Octopus Teacher
Alt: Collective

INTERNATIONAL FILM

Another round
Alt. Collective

They must have really liked Collective to nominate it twice. Just sayin'. Or it could split the vote and go home empty handed. Who knows?

Another Round (Denmark)
Alt: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

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