Oscars 2021 winner predictions (and actuals): Bottom's up!

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Here we go! I'm not sure if I'll actually get to watch this. In any case, I'm expecting a big night for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. My friend, Griz, predicts in purple. Red is for actual winners.

The show: I feel like I did goood this year. The ones I didn't get were pretty much shockers? You know what was the big loser of this year? More than the producers' intentional set up for an absent best actor winner (haha 'absence' turned out to be in the literal sense and not the mortal sense)? The snoozefest broadcast itself. Wow was it ever boring. Exterior set was great; interior set was nope. And yes, I wish the band was around to play off the endless Oscar speeches. Holy mother of pearl it went ON AND ON. The only saving grace was in Yuh-Jung Youn's amazingly candid and hilarious speech. And the unexpected tear jerker twist for Thomas Vinterberg's daughter. What the hell? Let's hope we don't have to go through that kind of broadcast again. I hated that best picture did not go last. Made no sense at all. Fire them all!

PICTURE

Nomadland
Alt. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom <<-- this is hilarious, because it wasn't even nominated!

Could there be an upset? Probably not. But if there was, I'd have said the Trial stands the best chance based on nominations. However, after looking over the possibilities of wins, I'd say Ma Rainey runs a very good 2nd race (IT WASN'T NOMINATED; leaving this in for posterity). Obviously Griz disagrees. WE'LL SEE. In any other year, at any other time, Mank would be the better bet as an alternative to Nomadland. But we're in a different time now, and I'd imagine the Academy would reflect that.

Nomadland
Alt: Minari


DIRECTOR

Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
Alt. David Fincher - Mank

It's Zhao's to lose. And they're not going to miss a chance at making history in this climate.

Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
Alt: David Fincher - Mank


ACTRESS
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

I would've put Frances here if it wasn't for the fact that she won not so long ago. <<- Wow this was a genuine surprise, and probably breaking some rules. Frances has more best actress Oscars than Meryl!

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman


ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Anthony Hopkins - The father HAHHAHAHAHAHHA THIS BLEW UP IN OSCARS' PRODUCERS' FACE

Sir Anthony Hopkins is just consistently amazing, in general, and typically that can be taken for granted. So when the ink is hot for his performance, it means he's really good in it. I haven't seen it, but I bet it's showy, and just what the Oscars would want. However, given Boseman's death, this would be a good chance to reward a promising career cut short. Is Boseman good in it? Yeah. He did not knock my socks off, but he's been consistently good in all his performances. So it's not going to be a travesty or anything if he wins. Oscars rewards 'good' more often than 'great.'

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Alt. Olivia Coleman - The father

For the one-two The Father punch, Coleman could sneak in if Yuh-Jung Youn doesn't gather enough support. But again, will the Academy miss out on a historic year for another historic win? I doubt it.

Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Alt: Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Alt. Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

The Academy loves the type of performance that Raci seems to have delivered, so without the force that is Kaluuya, this would've been a tight contest. However, Kaluuya is a great presence and he was robbed for Get out and this was supposed to be a showy performance for co-lead so he wins?

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Alt: Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Promising Young Woman
Alt. The trial of the Chicago 7

Consolation prize here for Promising Young Woman, with Aaron Sorkin hot on that tail. I am not that impressed with Chicago 7 so I am biased here. I don't really understand the love for that one, honestly. Is there a love for it? The internet is unreliable here. I'm just also confused why Mank didn't get a nomination so I can't think straight for this category.

Promising Young Woman
Alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The father
Alt. Nomadland

I'm betting on a split here, based on nothing but a feeling from the trailers. Because, WHO'S ACTUALLY SEEN THEM?? Anyway, The Father seems super talky?

Nomadland
Alt: The Father

EDITING

Sound of Metal
Alt. Nomadland

They may spread the love. I guess this would depend on how loved Nomadland is. Normally I would say Nomadland, if it's going to win best picture, it should stake Editing, but Sound of Metal just seems very edit-y. Again, having seen none of them, other than Chicago 7, it's kind of hard to predict.

Sound of Metal
Alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nomadland
Alt. Mank

I dunno. Mank is in black and white, and Griz may be right here. But if Nomadland is not going to take Editing, it should take Cinematography. <<-- Oscars makes no sense to give no technical win to the eventual best picture winner. It's not my fault Oscars be crazy.

Mank
Alt: Nomadland

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank
Alt. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank should take this easily. Second runner up would be Ma Rainey's even though I do think Tenet is better. But it doesn't seem to have that much love from the Academy so Ma Rainey would be the next choice.

Mank
Alt: Tenet

COSTUME DESIGN

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Emma

What's it gonna be? A whole set of showy costume, or one-person-centric costume to win the day? It'd be weird if Mank gets in here, because then that'd be basically for Amanda Seigfried's dresses.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Mank

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt. Mank

I'm only putting Mank down for Amanda's hair. But Ma Rainey is soaked in sweat, so there's that.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Alt: Mank

SOUND

Sound of Metal
Alt. Soul

It would be so odd to have something else win this category. Though, Greyhound does make sense I suppose.

Sound of Metal
Alt: Soul

VISUAL EFFECTS

Tenet
Alt. The Midnight Sky

I mean, if Tenet does not win this, that's just active hate then.

Tenet
Alt: The Midnight Sky

ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul
Alt. Mank

Yeah, this should be the animated winner's other consolation prize.

Soul
Alt: Minari

ORIGINAL SONG

One night in Miami x Judas WTF noone is going to remember this win
Alt. The trial of Chicago 7

I'm torn. Leslie Odom Jr. was nominated so they probably will give him this. But Hear My Voice is a better song? Plus, would the Chicago 7 walk away empty handed? I've changed my mind like 20x on this. I'm going with Miami but this is not sure at all. <<<- Andra Day completely obliterated the nominees/winners in this category with her diss on the best songs don't get nominated. Someone might have regretted asking her questions!

One Night in Miami
Alt: The Life Ahead

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Soul
Alt. Wolfwalkers

Yup.

Soul
Alt: Wolfwalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Collective
Alt. My Octopus Teacher

There's always a surprise or two at the Oscars, and I just don't think Teacher is weighty enough to win this one. Sometimes it's not the most popular film that wins in this category. Also, Teacher is just ... tedious? <<--- I was wrong, but this was lame.

My Octopus Teacher
Alt: Collective

INTERNATIONAL FILM

Another round
Alt. Collective

They must have really liked Collective to nominate it twice. Just sayin'. Or it could split the vote and go home empty handed. Who knows?

Another Round (Denmark)
Alt: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)



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2 Response to Oscars 2021 winner predictions (and actuals): Bottom's up!

Grizzly
April 26, 2021 at 5:55 PM

The results are in and... You got 15 plus 3 alternates, and I got 16 plus 1 alternate!

Astonishingly, we both completely whiffed on Best Actress. Frances' 3rd! I thought just like you, she just won and she already has two leading Oscars, surely they're not going to pick her again. At least she didn't stay on stage talking for 15 minutes like every. single. freaking. winner.

But not only that, I also whiffed on Best Actor! I don't think that's ever happened before, not managing to predict either lead winner even with an alternate option! Wow.

May 4, 2021 at 8:50 PM

Yeah, but look on the bright side, who could've predicted both of these lead wins??? And like, who the heck predicted H.E.R.'s win?? I'm pretty proud of guessing the Father's surge, though I'm sure if I'd seen it I could've done a better job predicting.

I saw Nomadland after the win, and it certainly would go into the Moonlight category of best picture winner. An admirable choice, and not typically Oscar-y at all?

 

Recently Seen (out of *****)

  • One night in Miami (King, 2020) ***
  • Mank (Fincher, 2020) ***1/2
  • Coming 2 America (Brewer, 2021) **1/2
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Wolfe, 2020) ***1/2
  • I care a lot (Blakeson, 2020) **

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