Oscars 2021 nomination predix: the show must go on, but, why?

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I'm doing this just so I can keep up with the tradition. It's a bit of an imaginary duty call. Or a fear of loss. One of those things.


I did not watch the Globes this year because frankly, this whole thing is a bit ridiculous. The theatres suffered so much last year (and they still not have opened in most of Canada), and nobody has seen anything not on Disney+ or whatever other streamers have. Why have a show? Who'd care? Why not combine for next year? I'm sure it's all well debated to death, so I won't bother to harp anymore on this, other than I don't like it. But I'm here so we'll get on with it. Plus, sight unseen, the trailers for these films make them look like they are a decent bunch. My friend Griz's predix are in purple, as usual.


A disclaimer: I have not seen most of the films, and basically this prediction set is based on trailers. As such, it will only be the major categories we're predicting.

PICTURE
The father
Judas and the black messiah
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One night in Miami ...
Promising Young Woman
Sound of metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alt. Da 5 Bloods

I went to see Tenet in theatre. I think it's a shame that it's not mentioned more in the awards circuit. If nothing else, it was a very touching / desperate attempt at helping out the theatres. I suppose you don't just give awards for that, but I think it's still a good film on its own.


Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Soul
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7


DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
David Fincher - Mank
Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

Alt. Shaka King - Judas and the Black Messiah

The Academy has an opportunity here to make everyone happy with a diverse selection of nominees. I'm kind of tickled that there are strong women director candidates, and wow, two of Asian descent for two Americana films! This category is kind of historic?

Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
David Fincher - Mank
Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao - Nomadland

Alt: Shaka King - Judas and the Black Messiah


ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Alt. Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday

What do I know about these performances, other than Viola Davis' shoo-in? I ain't arguing with SAG. I put Andra Day as an alternate simply because Billie Holiday is a huge figure. However, there maybe an off chance that Zendaya makes it in? She was quite good in Malcolm and Marie, though unfortunately the film itself seems to not be a hit within awards circuit?

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Alt: Amy Adams - Hillbilly Elegy


ACTOR
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Steven Yeun - Minari

Alt. Tom Hanks – News of the World

I think the five looks pretty good here for SAG.

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Tahar Rahim - The Mauritanian

Alt: Steven Yeun - Minari


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman - The father
Jodie Foster - The Mauritanian
Youn Yuh-jung - Minari

Alt. Amanda Seyfried – Mank


I'm just amazed that Maria is in this conversation, because it's comedy, it's raunchy, Oscars just doesn't typcially like these things? Maybe in any other year, she wouldn't be?


Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman - The Father
Jodie Foster - The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

Alt: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods
Sasha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. - One night in Miami
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Alt.Jared Leto – The little things


Boseman for the double noms! I saw the trailer for The Little Things and man, Jared Leto looked creepy as heck! There is another dark horse: Alan Kim from Minari. Watch out for the little 'I'm not pretty, I'm good looking' guy.

Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Alt: Bill Murray - On the Rocks


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alt. Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank is very screenplay heavy, but I found Chicago 7 underwhelming. I have not seen the other pictures that could be nominated, so I don't know how good their screenplays are. Griz is probably right in including Soul, because this is where the Animated winner typically finds its additional big nomination. However, I like Soul less than other people probably did, so I'm not sure how much to stake on its nomination?

Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Soul
The Trial of the Chiago 7

Alt: Judas and the Black Messiah


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father
First Cow
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
One night in Miami ...

Alt. News of the World

First Cow seems wordy. You know what else is but may not be remembered enough for a nomination? I'm thinking of ending things. I actually saw that one, and it's depressive, as Charlie Kaufman's films typically are.

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

Alt: The White Tiger


That's all we've got. Okay, other things I look forward to hearing? Tenet in anything. Zendaya surprises. Also, whatever happened to The Dig?



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2 Response to Oscars 2021 nomination predix: the show must go on, but, why?

Grizzly
March 15, 2021 at 8:56 AM

You were winning so easily but I pulled it back a bit in the last category! Some out of nowhere surprises though, Vinterberg and Lakeith!

Anyway, the tally was 36 plus 3 alternates for you, and 35 plus 4 alternates for me. Close! We did pretty well though all things considered!

March 15, 2021 at 12:51 PM

I'm actually not surprised at some of the snubs, particularly for Ma Rainey's and One night, having seen both. They are more like plays than cinematic. Anyway, how is it that we always manage to be so close in tally every year?

 

Recently Seen (out of *****)

  • One night in Miami (King, 2020) ***
  • Mank (Fincher, 2020) ***1/2
  • Coming 2 America (Brewer, 2021) **1/2
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Wolfe, 2020) ***1/2
  • I care a lot (Blakeson, 2020) **

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