Oscars 2017 Winners Prediction: How many dreamers dream of Oscars?

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It's time to settle in. My friend Griz's predictions in purple.

PICTURE
La La Land
Alt. Lion

It'd be a huge surprise if anything else takes the cake. I actually don't believe in alternates here. I picked Lion because of hearsay. I'm ignoring Hidden Figures' SAG ensemble win, and box office power, though maybe I shouldn't?

La La Land
Alt. Moonlight

DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Alt. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

DGA seals this, methinks, for Damien.

Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Alt. Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

ACTRESS
Emma Stone – La La Land
Alt. Isabelle Hupert – Elle

As much as Isabelle has surged lately, I feel like Emma is going to take this rather than Isabelle, because I can not imagine that many people have seen Elle.

Emma Stone - La La Land 
Alt. Isabelle Huppert - Elle

ACTOR
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the sea
Alt. Denzel Washington – Fences

Denzel's SAG win really confuses the issue and brings some unexpected excitement here. He could pull it off again here given the Academy has so many actors. I can't comment on the best acting between Casey and Denzel as I have not seen Fences; but it'd be a huge upset if Casey lost to anyone. The Casey 'scandal' may or may not have shaken the certainty here.

Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Alt. Ryan Gosling - La La Land

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences
Alt. Nicole Kidman – Lion

Of all the performances here, I'm picking the two that I have yet seen because I can't bear to predict the other three insignificant performances. Plus, it's Viola's to lose.

Viola Davis - Fences
Alt. Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Alt. Dev Patel – Lion

SAG - we'll see if it's a big deal after all here, enough for the winner Dev Patel to upset the favourite Ali.

Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Alt. Dev Patel - Lion

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Manchester by the sea
Alt. La La Land

Manchester should take home this prize as a consolation for its picture and directing loss, and especially if Denzel upsets Casey.

La La Land
Alt. Manchester by the Sea

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Moonlight
Alt. Lion

Moonlight should win here.

Moonlight
Alt. Arrival

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Toni Erdmann
Alt. The Salesman

Toni's positioning for a win here is not as sure a thing as it once was many months ago. At the same time, nothing else emerged as a possible winner. That may be an advantage to Toni. I wonder though if The Salesman would get the vote just so people could stick it to the US administration, with the whole Farhadi fiasco.

Toni Erdmann (Germany) Alt: A Man Called Ove (Sweden)


ANIMATED
Zootopia
Alt. Kubo and the two strings

It's hard to imagine an upset here, given Zootopia's popularity.

Zootopia Alt: Kubo and the Two Strings

DOCUMENTARY
OJ: Made in America
Alt. I am not your Negro

I don't think OJ was ever shown in theatre here, at least not in the theatres I know of. But it's the biggest name of the bunch, and I'm sure a case can be made for each of the rest of the contenders (which is their problem).

O.J. Made in America 
Alt. 13th

EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. La La Land

It's a war movie by a somehow respected actor turned director. I think this is a strong one for Hacksaw to take home. We'll see just how well loved La La Land is by whether it wins many of its nominated categories.

Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. La La Land

CINEMATOGRAPHY
La La Land
Alt. Lion

La La Land should take this, but the rest of the field is strong.

La La Land
Alt. Lion

PRODUCTION DESIGN
La La Land
Alt. Arrival

It's La La Landastic or an EGG IN THE SKY!!!

La La Land 
Alt. Fantastic Beasts

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Jungle Book
Alt. Kubo and the two strings

I'm picking the two strongest contenders, not because I think they are strong, but because ... TALKING ANIMALS (which was actually good, to my biased surprise)!

The Jungle Book 
Alt. Doctor Strange

SOUND MIXING
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. Arrival

I'm giving the edge to the war movie.

Arrival
Alt. Hacksaw Ridge

SOUND EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. Arrival

I think Arrival maybe getting shafted, unfortunately.

Hacksaw RidgeAlt. Arrival

MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
A man called Ove
Alt. Star Trek Beyond

I don't understand this category. So, old man it is.

Star Trek Beyond
Alt: Suicide Squad

COSTUME
La La Land
Alt. Fantastic Beasts

La La Land should take costume because it's really colourful. What analysis?

La La Land
Alt. Jackie

SCORE
La La Land
Alt. Moonlight

Given that I've obsessed over the La La Land soundtrack for like two months now, it'd be an atrocity for it not to win the prize. Yes, real atrocity. Like, it matters. Though, Mica Levi getting the nod was such a pleasure. And Moonlight's music is such a strong component of the film, and totally deserving of its nomination and runner-up status here.

La La Land
Alt. Moonlight

SONG
La La Land – City of Stars
Alt. La La Land – Audition

After many repeats, I now see this is the most difficult category to predict. Will it be the easy City of Stars, or the emotional rousing Audition, that sticks the longest in the Academy's heart? I can't decide, so I just picked the most easily accessible one.

La La Land - City of Stars
Alt. Moana - How far I'll go



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1 Response to Oscars 2017 Winners Prediction: How many dreamers dream of Oscars?

Grizzly
February 27, 2017 at 10:22 AM

What a plot twist!

And while I had Moonlight as my Best Picture alternate, you still won overall with 16 (plus 3 alts) to my 14 (plus 5 alts). But maybe someone will come out with an envelope later to say I actually won, ha!

 

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