It's time to settle in. My friend Griz's predictions in purple.
PICTURE
La La Land
Alt. Lion
It'd be a huge surprise if anything else takes the cake. I actually don't believe in alternates here. I picked Lion because of hearsay. I'm ignoring Hidden Figures' SAG ensemble win, and box office power, though maybe I shouldn't?
La La Land
Alt. Moonlight
DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Alt. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
DGA seals this, methinks, for Damien.
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Alt. Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
ACTRESS
Emma Stone – La La Land
Alt. Isabelle Hupert – Elle
As much as Isabelle has surged lately, I feel like Emma is going to take this rather than Isabelle, because I can not imagine that many people have seen Elle.
Emma Stone - La La Land
Alt. Isabelle Huppert - Elle
ACTOR
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the sea
Alt. Denzel Washington – Fences
Denzel's SAG win really confuses the issue and brings some unexpected excitement here. He could pull it off again here given the Academy has so many actors. I can't comment on the best acting between Casey and Denzel as I have not seen Fences; but it'd be a huge upset if Casey lost to anyone. The Casey 'scandal' may or may not have shaken the certainty here.
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Alt. Ryan Gosling - La La Land
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences
Alt. Nicole Kidman – Lion
Of all the performances here, I'm picking the two that I have yet seen because I can't bear to predict the other three insignificant performances. Plus, it's Viola's to lose.
Viola Davis - Fences
Alt. Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Alt. Dev Patel – Lion
SAG - we'll see if it's a big deal after all here, enough for the winner Dev Patel to upset the favourite Ali.
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Alt. Dev Patel - Lion
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Manchester by the sea
Alt. La La Land
Manchester should take home this prize as a consolation for its picture and directing loss, and especially if Denzel upsets Casey.
La La Land
Alt. Manchester by the Sea
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Moonlight
Alt. Lion
Moonlight should win here.
Moonlight
Alt. Arrival
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Toni Erdmann
Alt. The Salesman
Toni's positioning for a win here is not as sure a thing as it once was many months ago. At the same time, nothing else emerged as a possible winner. That may be an advantage to Toni. I wonder though if The Salesman would get the vote just so people could stick it to the US administration, with the whole Farhadi fiasco.
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Alt: A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
ANIMATED
Zootopia
Alt. Kubo and the two strings
It's hard to imagine an upset here, given Zootopia's popularity.
Zootopia
Alt: Kubo and the Two Strings
DOCUMENTARY
OJ: Made in America
Alt. I am not your Negro
I don't think OJ was ever shown in theatre here, at least not in the theatres I know of. But it's the biggest name of the bunch, and I'm sure a case can be made for each of the rest of the contenders (which is their problem).
O.J. Made in America
Alt. 13th
EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. La La Land
It's a war movie by a somehow respected actor turned director. I think this is a strong one for Hacksaw to take home. We'll see just how well loved La La Land is by whether it wins many of its nominated categories.
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. La La Land
CINEMATOGRAPHY
La La Land
Alt. Lion
La La Land should take this, but the rest of the field is strong.
La La Land
Alt. Lion
PRODUCTION DESIGN
La La Land
Alt. Arrival
It's La La Landastic or an EGG IN THE SKY!!!
La La Land
Alt. Fantastic Beasts
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Jungle Book
Alt. Kubo and the two strings
I'm picking the two strongest contenders, not because I think they are strong, but because ... TALKING ANIMALS (which was actually good, to my biased surprise)!
The Jungle Book
Alt. Doctor Strange
SOUND MIXING
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. Arrival
I'm giving the edge to the war movie.
Arrival
Alt. Hacksaw Ridge
SOUND EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. Arrival
I think Arrival maybe getting shafted, unfortunately.
Hacksaw RidgeAlt. Arrival
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
A man called Ove
Alt. Star Trek Beyond
I don't understand this category. So, old man it is.
Star Trek Beyond
Alt: Suicide Squad
COSTUME
La La Land
Alt. Fantastic Beasts
La La Land should take costume because it's really colourful. What analysis?
La La Land
Alt. Jackie
SCORE
La La Land
Alt. Moonlight
Given that I've obsessed over the La La Land soundtrack for like two months now, it'd be an atrocity for it not to win the prize. Yes, real atrocity. Like, it matters. Though, Mica Levi getting the nod was such a pleasure. And Moonlight's music is such a strong component of the film, and totally deserving of its nomination and runner-up status here.
La La Land
Alt. Moonlight
SONG
La La Land – City of Stars
Alt. La La Land – Audition
After many repeats, I now see this is the most difficult category to predict. Will it be the easy City of Stars, or the emotional rousing Audition, that sticks the longest in the Academy's heart? I can't decide, so I just picked the most easily accessible one.
La La Land - City of Stars
Alt. Moana - How far I'll go
Home » Predictions » Oscars 2017 Winners Prediction: How many dreamers dream of Oscars?
1 Response to Oscars 2017 Winners Prediction: How many dreamers dream of Oscars?
What a plot twist!
And while I had Moonlight as my Best Picture alternate, you still won overall with 16 (plus 3 alts) to my 14 (plus 5 alts). But maybe someone will come out with an envelope later to say I actually won, ha!
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