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The Oscars nominations are happening tomorrow! How's that for a fast and furious award season? We just had the Globes. In this wide open year, anything could happen. We could even be right with some of our predix! Here they are, from me and my friend, Griz (in Purple).
Post announcement (PA) comments in Blue.
PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol x
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Straight outta Compton x
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Editor Predix: If this was a field of 5, I'm certain we'd do better with our predictions. With so many iffy pictures, we could do really badly here comes tomorrow. If there's one sure thing, it's this: there will be snubs.
PA: Wow, only 8 nominees. They took up all the passionate votes, I guess. Yay Mad Max! Sad face for Hateful Eight.
DIRECTOR
Alejandro G, Iñárritu - The Revenant
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Alt: Ridley Scott - The Martian
Todd Haynes - Carol
Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revenant
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott - The Martian
Alt: Adam McKay - The Big Short
Editor Predix: I'm going wild here. If there's any passionate support for Son of Saul, I don't know how you could overlook its flashiest selling point: direction. McKay is the weakest in terms of prestige, and Scott has directed more 'respected' films (not to say that he couldn't be nominated based on respect for his name alone).
PA: I correctly predicted Ridley Scott, but did not see Todd Haynes missing. Adam McKay, moving on up! A surprising line up, for sure. Carol is not feeling the love.
ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett- Carol
Brie Larson - Room
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
Alt: Helen Mirren - Woman in Gold
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Brie Larson - Room
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
Alt: Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Editor Predix: I want so badly for Charlize Theron to get nominated here, but that would require such a huge wave of support and the precursors haven't indicated any of that. There's a bit of a category confusion here for Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander, so I'm not sure about my picking Alicia over Rooney. But Alicia brought me the tears!
PA: Charlotte Surprise! Ugh, I almost had this category! Griz correctly predicted Charlotte, while I let my bias against the performance clouded my prediction.
ACTOR
Matt Damon - The Martian
Leonardo di Caprio - The Revenant
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Alt: Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
Matt Damon - The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl
Alt: Johnny Depp - Black Mass
Editor Predix: I would've put in Johnny Depp, but he hasn't performed well in the precursors, which surprises me. I'd say Steve Carrell and Bryan Cranston can probably switch place. I'm not sure there's enough support to see Cranston go lead in the film (not TV) category.
PA: Griz's killing it! Wow, Cranston made the big leap.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara - Carol
Alicia Vikander -
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
Helen Mirren - Trumbo x
Alt: Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara - Carol
Helen Mirren - Trumbo
Alicia Vikander - Ex Machina
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
Alt: Jane Fonda - Youth
Editor Predix: I was surprised that JJL did not get a SAG nom, but I trust that the Academy would reward this delish performance. Rachel McAdams' nom is a strange one, considering how subdued her role is.
PA: I don't know how to count this. Category confusion! I did predict Alicia for The Danish Girl, just in the wrong category?
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale - The Big Short
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Alt: Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
Christian Bale - The Big Short
Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Alt: Michael Shannon - 99 Homes
Editor Predix: Where the heck did Michael Shannon come from, and how much should we weigh the SAG's predictability here? I'm iffy about leaving Mark Ruffalo out, but his twitchy character in Spotlight seems a little different from the usual classy acting he's used to be nominated for.
PA: I was wrong about Mark Ruffalo. He's like the new Meryl Streep or something. Also, WHY did I not put Sylvester in? I thought he was going to win the Oscars!
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Spotlight
Straight outta Compton
Alt: Ex-Machina
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight
Alt: Sicario
Editor Predix: I can't believe Tarantino missed with the Guilds here. But if there's support for The Hateful Eight (which I'm actually not sure about considering its reception), they would nominate him here.
PA: Well I was right about the (underwhelming) support for Hateful Eight. Yay for Inside out though!
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Alt: Room
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Steve Jobs
Alt: The Revenant
Predix: I'm only putting Revenant in because at this point, I actually think it's the front runner for best picture. And a front runner can't have its screenplay omitted. Well it can, but that wouldn't look good?
PA: I suppose the Screenplay categories are where the Academy spreads the love. Shocking Aaron Sorkin did not make it for Steve Jobs. Even more shocking is the Revenant missed it here. How is it winning without a screenplay nomination?
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Embrace of the Serpent (Columbia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Alt: A war (Denmark)
The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
Viva (Ireland)
Alt: A War (Denmark)
ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Alt: Minions
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Alt: Minions
Editor Predix: I really can't see missing any from this category.
PA: Talk about eating crows! This is the most shocking of shocking categories this morning just in terms of how wrong we are and how out of the left field the nominees are.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What happened, Miss Simone?
Alt: Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
Amy
Cartel Land
He Named Me Malala
Listen to Me Marlon
The Look of Silence
Alt: Where to Invade Next
Editor Predix: A truly blind set of guesses, other than Amy. Why is the Look of Silence on for this year? I shouldn't complain - I was sad when I thought it missed last year.
PA: There has been no buzz for Where to Invade next, probably because it's not out yet. So it's only my fault that I thought it would count. I've seen the film, and I would be surprised if it's not nominated if people have seen it. Did they see it? What do I know??
EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Alt: The Martian
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Alt: Spotlight
Editor Predix: I'm probably wrong for picking Sicario over The Martian, but whatever. Sicario is better edited, and also flashier.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Alt: Sicario
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Alt: The Hateful Eight
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Alt: Crimson Peak
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: The Danish Girl
Editor Predix: It maybe foolish to pick Crimson Peak as an alternate, but having seen that movie, it so deserves the nod.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Ex-Machina
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Ant-man
SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: The Hateful Eight
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: The Hateful Eight
PA: Our best category!
SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: The Hateful Eight
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Inside out
MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Alt: The Hateful Eight
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Alt: Mr. Holmes
PA: What the. lol
COSTUME
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Alt: Crimson Peak
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
Alt: Mad Max: Fury Road
SCORE
Carol
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant x Star wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Sicario
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt: Spotlight
PA: Really? Star Wars over Mad Max?
SONG
Fifty Shades of Grey
The Hunting Ground
Spectre
Youth
Alt: Southpaw
Fifty Shades of Grey
Furious 7
The Hunting Ground
Spectre
Youth
Alt: Shaun the Sheep Movie
PA: Racing Extinction? Academy, you're weird.
Tally (noms per picture)
The Revenant 12
Mad Max: Fury Road 10
The Martian 7
Bridge of Spies 6
Spotlight 6
Carol 6
The big short 5
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 5
Room 4
The Danish Girl 4
Brooklyn 3
The Hateful Eight 3
Sicario 3
Inside out 2
Steve Jobs 2
Ex-Machina 2
45 years 1
100 year old man who climbed out the window and disappeared 1
Amy 1
Anomalisa 1
Boy and the World 1
Cartel Land 1
Cinderella 1
Creed 1
Embrace of the Serpent 1
Fifty shades of grey 1
The hunting ground 1
Joy 1
The Look of Silence 1
Mustang 1
Racing Extinction 1
Shaun the Sheep Movie 1
Son of Saul 1
Spectre 1
Straight outta Compton 1
Theeb 1
Trumbo 1
Ukraine fight for freedom 1
A war 1
What happened, Miss Simone? 1
When Marnie was here 1
Youth 1
1 Response to Oscars 2016 Nominations (Predix & Actual): Furiously wide open
According to my calculations (feel free to double-check), you got 68 + 8 alternates (75% and 84%), and I got 70 + 7 alternates (77% and 85%)! Redemption for my Globes failure!
The only categories we both got fully correct was Sound Mixing (!), and I also got Best Actor 5/5. That was it! But we did pretty well overall, I'd say.
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