Subscribe
 |
| Arkin and Affleck |
1. The Argo dilemma: This wouldn't have been such a tough Oscars prediction year if Argo didn't sweep the precursors and Ben Affleck got his directing nomination. Then we would have been looking at an easy Lincoln year. Instead, we have mad scramble for gold. If the Oscars follows the precursors and awards Best Picture to Argo, the film will have to pull these two other wins: Screenplay (over Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook), and Editing (a consistent win for Best Picture winners in the past, over Zero Dark Thirty). That would give it 3 wins total, one of the lowest counts for a Best Picture winner in the history of Oscars (Crash was the last one to have only 3). It might win two other categories - Supporting Actor for Arkin, and Sound Editing - but the odds in those categories are not in its favour. For one, Supporting Actor has two other popular choices in Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz, and Arkin is the least deserving of the win (the nom was undeserving as well, but such is life). Sound Editing could go to Argo, but that would mean Zero Dark Thirty going home empty handed (which it might just, but what a shame it would be for a critically acclaimed Best Picture nominee to go home a complete loser). The other scenario? Oscars ignores precursors and goes with the obvious choice, considering the sheer number of nominations in all important categories: Lincoln. In that case, Argo's tally would range from nothing (Screenplay to Lincoln, Editing to Zero Dark Thirty) to just one win (Editing is its best bet of the two).
2. Lincoln's leading total number of nominations: It's a good bet that when a picture has the most number of nominations in most important categories, it's taking home the Best Picture prize. If the Academy adheres to this rule, then it would be one of the most upsetting AND safe Oscars picks ever, considering the way Argo has swept all important precursors.
3. Best Director: This is a wide open field. Let's break it down:
- Spielberg: for him - Lincoln's consolation big prize if Argo wins, and he's the director of the most nominated film. Against him - he's won before, and a boring choice. Still, he's got the best odds of winning the category.
- Lee: for him - Pi is actually the most showy in terms of direction, and for some reason, it looks to be well liked. Against him - not certain just how well loved Pi is, and Pi has no acting nomination.
- O. Russell: for him - Playbook is a crowd pleaser, backed by Weinstein (WEINSTEIN FACTOR!), and he got all his actors nominated for the film. Against him - it's a blandly directed film, and there are showier directing in the mix.
- Zeitlin: for him - freshness. Against him - nomination was his win, since the film is so small and too indie for him to win such a major prize.
- Haneke: for him - an avant garde director in the mix! Against him - an avant garde director in the mix!
4. Acting: Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway are sure wins. People talk about the possibility of Riva taking the Actress win, but I'd say that's nothing more than wishful thinking. It's J. Law or no law. S. Actor is the only iffy category - Waltz should have this, since he won SAG, but Lincoln's love will probably lift Tommy Lee Jones above the pack.
5. Brave vs. Wreck-it Ralph: Annie gave the edge to Ralph, but having seen neither, I am a little on the fence about Brave - a Pixar film that looks to be quite traditional - losing the Oscars to Ralph. I'm going with Annie though, for I only play inside the circle of witchcraft.
6. Life of Pi surprise: Yes, Argo and Lincoln are the 1-2 punch contenders, but I wouldn't be surprised if when it's all said and done, Pi walks away with the most wins, just for its technical side prowess.
7. Django: For all Weinstein magic, there's a very real possibility that it's going home empty handed!
8. Weinstein factor: I have no idea how this is going to play out. Since the Master is pretty much dead on arrival, and Django unlikely to do much damage, that leaves Playbook the most hopeful Weinstein contender. What other party favours can he do for the little film? It won People's choice at TIFF, but will it come home with only one Actress win? Or can it pull other acting, directing, and writing wins?
With all that said, we've made our predictions (mine first, followed by Griz's). I've decided on the scenario that Argo is winning, and adjusted my other categories accordingly.
PICTURE
Argo
Alt. Lincoln
DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg
Alt. Ang Lee
ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis
Alt. Bradley Cooper
ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence
Alt. Emmanuelle Riva
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones
Alt. Christoph Waltz
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway
Alt. Sally Field
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Alt. Zero Dark Thirty
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Alt. Silver Linings Playbook
EDITING
Argo
Alt. Zero Dark Thirty
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Life of Pi
Alt. Skyfall
ART DIRECTION / PRODUCTION DESIGN
Life of Pi
Alt. Anna Karenina
COSTUMES
Anna Karenina
Alt. Les Misérables
SOUND MIXING
Les Misérables
Alt. Argo
SOUND EDITING
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt. Argo
FOREIGN FILM FEATURE
Amour
Alt. Rebelle (War Witch)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Searching for Sugar Man
Alt. The Gatekeepers
ANIMATED FEATURE
Wreck-It Ralph
Alt. Brave
VISUAL EFFECTS
Life of Pi
Alt. The hobbit
MAKE UP and HAIRSTYLING
Les Misérables
Alt. The hobbit
SCORE
Life of Pi
Alt. Lincoln
SONG
Skyfall
Alt. Les Misérables
Griz's Predix:
BEST PICTURE: Argo
Alternate: Lincoln
BEST DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Alternate: Ang Lee - Life of Pi
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Alternate: Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alternate: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Alternate: Sally Field - Lincoln
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour
Alternate: Django Unchained
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Argo
Alternate: Silver Linings Playbook
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi
Alternate: Anna Karenina
BEST FILM EDITING: Argo
Alternate: Lincoln
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Les Misérables
Alternate: Anna Karenina
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Anna Karenina
Alternate: Mirror Mirror
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Hobbit
Alternate: Les Misérables
BEST SOUND EDITING: Life of Pi
Alternate: Skyfall
BEST SOUND MIXING: Les Misérables
Alternate: Skyfall
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi
Alternate: The Hobbit
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Skyfall” - Skyfall
Alternate: “Pi’s Lullaby” - Life of Pi
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Life of Pi
Alternate: Argo
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Wreck-It Ralph
Alternate: Brave
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Amour
Alternate: War Witch
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Searching for Sugar Man
Alternate: How To Survive A Plague
5 Response to Oscars 2013 Winners Predictions!
So we differ slightly in our predictions, good! Maybe that also means we might get some surprises since everything didn't seem like a sure thing. Definitely feels like there's plenty of wiggle room in many categories at least.
I kinda feel bad for Affleck missing out on a Best Director nomination now that his film turned into the juggernaut. Would've been a slam dunk win for him if only he'd gotten the chance!
Also, you're correct to predict Wreck-It Ralph. I saw it just a few days ago and it's just so good. Predictable, but so very enjoyable. Brave is really well-made, and beautiful, but definitely feels more conventional. Ralph deserves is, hands down (and you should see it, it'll definitely be in my top ten).
Anyway, may the luckier Oscar geek win!
It is kinda ridiculous, but it's more ridiculous that Argo swept everything. It's not THAT good.
And the game is ON! I shall prevail!
I agree that Argo wasn't truly Best Picture good, but the realistic alternatives (Lincoln, Life of Pi) aren't that compelling either. Plus, it makes sense for Hollywood to award a movie featuring their own industry helping save lives. That fact alone makes you wonder why anyone ever thought anything else would or could win.
30 minutes left!
It's a season sweep, you win again!
Tally: You had 16 of 21, 19 with alternates. That's 76.2% (90.5% with alternates). I had 14 of 21, 19 with alternates for a paltry 66.67% (but 90.5% with alternates).
And now it's time for bed, commentary tomorrow!
I almost ruled HARD. If only I went with my guts on Brave and Ang Lee!?
Post a Comment