Oscars 2013 Nominations Predictions!

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Oh thank goodness the interweb came crawling back, because I was without it for hours and thought this list would not happen! Tradition can not be thwarted! The nominations will be announced tomorrow morning, and once again I make predictions. I will also try to do live nominations, with the birds. This year is one of the trickiest years for Oscars predictions in, like, forever. My special guest, Grizzly, helpfully contributes (in purple?!).

*A special note for the Picture category - the rule is as follows:
"... all active and life members of the Academy who shall vote in the order of their preference for not more than five pictures. The pictures receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Best Picture award. There may not be more than ten nor fewer than five nominations; however, no picture shall be nominated that receives less than five percent of the total votes cast."

PICTURE
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Alt. Beasts of the Southern Wild

• Argo
• Django Unchained
• Les Misérables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

Alternate: Amour
Adding in the uncertainty of this year's weak flock of birds is the fact that the rule makes it so we could have a very unholy number of best picture nominees rather than a nice, even 5 or 10. So we're going for 7 here, and I may be kicking myself for not adding Skyfall. I'm torn, because Skyfall seems like a good bet, but a Bond movie for best picture sounds rather out of AMPAS' snuggie zone. So there's that. I have no horse in this race - my horse is not even galloping anywhere near the Oscar radar. It's too busy eating rainbows to bother with AMPAS gold? Loner, forever.

DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck
Steven Spielberg
Ang Lee
Kathryn Bigelow
Tom Hooper
Alt. David O. Russell
• Ben Affleck - Argo
• Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
• Tom Hooper - Les Misérables
• Ang Lee - Life of Pi
• Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Alternate: Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
The DGA is throwing Tom Hooper into the race for fun here, but what of Weinstein's clout to push one of his directors for a nomination? For now, I'm going with the DGA, but O. Russell may just make a break for it. Why not Quentin Tarantino, you say? Because ... I'm not feeling Django, man.

ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis
Hugh Jackman
Danzel Washington
Bradley Cooper
Joaquin Phoenix
Alt. John Hawkes
• Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
• Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
• Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
• Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
• Denzel Washington - Flight

Alternate: John Hawkes - The Sessions

I do have a horse in this race: Joaquin Phoenix!!!! Please let SAG be wrong. I haven't seen John Hawkes in The Sessions, but sight unseen I'm gonna take him out to make space for Joaquin. Or maybe Danzel could move aside to make room for both?

ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence
Jessica Chastain
Marion Cotillard
Naomi Watts
Emmanuelle Riva
Alt. Rachel Weisz
• Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
• Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
• Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
• Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
• Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Alternate: Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea

The only reason I'm sticking with Emmanuelle Riva, even though it doesn't really make sense (if you're nominating her, why don't you nominate the film?) is because I don't believe Deep Blue Sea has been seen by enough people. Heck, I hadn't even heard of it until her name started to pop up in the precursors. I'm pretty sure that if enough people had seen her in it, she'd get a nomination, simply because she's just such a darling and a beautiful actress and quite honestly if you don't love her you are made of drift wood.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin
Tommy Lee Jones
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Robert De Niro
Christoph Waltz

Alt. Leonardo DiCaprio
• Alan Arkin - Argo
• Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
• Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
• Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Alternate: Javier Bardem - Skyfall

I really hope one of the Django actors makes it in, and may that person be Christoph Waltz. What is Alan Arkin doing in this category? He really does not deserve a spot in this category this year. It's one of those names that got stuck in the precursors and just won't die.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Sally Field
Ann Hathaway
Helen Hunt
Nicole Kidman

Alt. Judi Dench
• Amy Adams - The Master
• Sally Field - Lincoln
• Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
• Helen Hunt - The Sessions
• Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy

Alternate: Judi Dench - Skyfall

Maggie Smith did get a SAG nomination, but I'm thinking one should never underestimate the good will towards Dame Dench and the Bond blockbuster. It may just happen.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
The master
Amour

Alt. Looper
• Amour
• Django Unchained
• The Master
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Zero Dark Thirty

Alternate: Looper

I have ordered my predix according to what I'm most sure with. After Moonrise Kingdom though, I have no clue if any of the rest would make it in. IT IS THAT UNCERTAIN.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alt. The perks of being a wallflower
• Argo
• Les Misérables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook

Alternate: Beasts of the Southern Wild

The fifth spot is really shakey, but Beasts, if it has any fan at all, will make an appearance here. AMPAS likes rewarding small indie movies in the writing category, out of pity.

EDITING
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Misérables
Alt. Django Unchained
• Argo
• Django Unchained
• Les Misérables
• Lincoln
• Zero Dark Thirty

Alternate: Life of Pi

As much as I love Tarantino, Django's weakest aspect is its editing. I'm semi-voting here by leaving Django out, but also because I believe Life of Pi is way more popular than people give it credits for.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Anna Karenina
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Alt. Django Unchained
• Anna Karenina
• Les Misérables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall

Alternate: Django Unchained

I'm just following the ASC nominations. Plus, they're all big guns. Hard to imagine them missing the bullet. Yeahhhhh that makes no dollar.

ART DIRECTION / PRODUCTION DESIGN
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit
Alt. The Master
• Anna Karenina
• Cloud Atlas
• The Hobbit
• Les Misérables
• Lincoln

Alternate: Django Unchained

There are many worthy nominees in this category, so we'll see how we're gonna fare comes tomorrow morning. The hobbit may not make it, though that would be a travesty.

COSTUMES
Anna Karenina
The hobbit
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Alt. Cloud Atlas
• Anna Karenina
• The Hobbit
• Les Misérables
• Lincoln
• Mirror Mirror

Alternate: A Royal Affair

Django's entries: the KKK precursors' regal, and Django ridiculous blue get up. FTW!

SOUND MIXING
The hobbit
Lincoln
Skyfall
Les Misérables
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt. The Dark Knight Rises
• The Avengers
• Django Unchained
• The Hobbit
• Lincoln
• Skyfall

Alternate: Les Misérables

Thank you, precursors.

SOUND EDITING
Argo
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Alt. The hobbit
• The Avengers
• Django Unchained
• The Hobbit
• Prometheus
• Skyfall

Alternate: Lincoln

No thank you, precursors.
FOREIGN FILM FEATURE
Amour
The Intouchables
No
Kon-Tiki
A Royal Affair
Alt. War Witch
• Amour (Austria)
• The Intouchables (France)
• No (Chile)
• A Royal Affair (Denmark)
• War Witch (Canada)

Alternate: Kon-Tiki (Norway)

Other than Amour, I don't know what else would be there. Surprise time!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Gatekeepers
Searching for Sugar Man
How to survive a plague
Bully
Queen of Versailles
Alt. The invisible war
• Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
• The Gatekeepers
• How to Survive a Plague
• The Imposter
• Searching for Sugar Man

Alternate: This Is Not a Film

I have only heard of Queen of Versailles. This category last year was so random, I don't expect anything less confusing this time around.

ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
Pirates
Wreck-It Ralph
Alt. Rise of the Guardians
• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Pirates! Band of Misfits
• Wreck-It Ralph

Alternate: A Liar’s Autobiography

So very weak sugar. There should really be only 3 nominees?

VISUAL EFFECTS
The hobbit
The Avengers
Life of Pi
Prometheus
The Dark Knight Rises
Alt. Skyfall
• The Avengers
• The Dark Knight Rises
• The Hobbit
• Life of Pi
• Prometheus

Alternate: Cloud Atlas

Life of Pi really has a chance of winning here. Skyfall could sneak in just for being well liked, in place of Prometheus. But that would be lame.

MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
The hobbit
Les Miz
Lincoln
Alt. Looper
• The Hobbit
• Lincoln
• Men in Black 3

Alternate: Looper

I'm laughing at my Looper alternate. I'm only putting it in because I remember how much the Academy likes prosthetic nose. It's pretty hard to miss the giant distraction that is JGL trying to look like Bruce Willis.

SCORE
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Brave
Alt. Cloud Atlas
• Anna Karenina
• Argo
• The Hobbit
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln

Alternate: Brave

I really can't remember any of these scores. Okay, maybe Life of Pi. And The Hobbit. Why am I putting Lincoln here? I work in such mysterious ways.

SONG
Skyfall
White Snow & the Huntsman
Les Misérables
Django Unchained
Life of Pi

Alt. Brave
• Brave
• Django Unchained
• Les Misérables
• Life of Pi
• Skyfall

Alternate: The Hunger Games

No Taylor Swift!!!! Ineligible! Ha!



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6 Response to Oscars 2013 Nominations Predictions!

Grizzly
January 10, 2013 at 8:00 AM

Sheesh, we're turning into a symbiotic Oscar predicting machine by the look of how similar our predictions are!

Are you awake!?

January 10, 2013 at 8:38 AM

Exciting!!!

Grizzly
January 10, 2013 at 8:48 AM

Beast Curveball! Whoa! Amour!

Grizzly
January 10, 2013 at 8:51 AM

Full list: http://oscar.go.com/nominees?cid=AMPAS_oscarnominees

Why didn't we decide to do this on chat?

Grizzly
January 10, 2013 at 9:18 AM

So I've just been tallying up stuff and boy did I suck! Actually, we both kinda sucked I think, but you won by a huge margin. You had 83 (87 with alternates) and I had a puny 78 (84 with alternates). You win! Again!

But the weird thing is that some categories we killed in and aced, and then we did terribly in others. We both had only 2 for Best Director (plus one alternate for you). TWO! I don't think I've ever predicted that badly before.

But it's good! Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild.. Lots of fun surprises! Considering I haven't seen just about anything of this I don't really have any favourites that missed either. Amour got FIVE nominations and Beasts got FOUR. Incredible, really.

Affleck missed for Director?! WTF? Silver Linings overperformed.. There's too much to take in! I'll have to write an email when it all sinks in.

January 10, 2013 at 9:19 AM

I don't know! Gotta go though!! Jeebus! Shock galore!!

 

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